769
FXUS62 KJAX 221156
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
756 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-107. POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AT AREA
BEACHES.
- ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK. FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, MAINLY
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z THURSDAY AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS AFTER 22Z THROUGH
AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INDICATE
ANYTHING OTHER THAN VICINITY SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF
MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT VQQ.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY 14Z, WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 16Z. THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PROGRESS INLAND, SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT
10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTY AT THE SGJ AND SSI COASTAL TERMINALS
TOWARDS 17Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT THE
DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AFTER 19Z. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
THEN RESUME BY 00Z, WITH SPEEDS REMAINING SUSTAINED AROUND 10
KNOTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 04Z, WHILE SPEEDS
INLAND GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS BY 06Z
THURSDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE AT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE EASING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
CONSOLIDATED AND STACKED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
WITH LIGHT FLOW IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE WIND REGIME
WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND AND TURN WINDS
OFFSHORE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE NEARBY FRONT WILL
ENCOURAGE SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
RIP CURRENTS:
LONGSHORE CURRENTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT SURF
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 2-3 FEET TODAY. AS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS, RIP CURRENT RISK WILL INCREASE TO A MODERATE LEVEL
THIS AFTERNOON. SURF HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO LOWER ANOTHER FOOT BY
THURSDAY, LEADING TO LOW- END MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
FIRE WEATHER
- HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES INLAND TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WILL EXIT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
10-15 MPH GUSTING 20-25 MPH. ATLANTIC SEABREEZE WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND PRESS TO US-17 THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON AS THE GULF
SEABREEZE PROGRESSES TO HIGHWAY 301 LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE AND
SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE GULF SEABREEZE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH ONLY EXCEPTION OVER THE OCALA NATIONAL FOREST WHERE
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG MERGING
GULF/ATLANTIC SEABREEZES. DRY AIR MAY ENHANCE A FEW DOWNDRAFTS
WITH ANY STORMS LEADING TO GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SINKS SLOWLY INTO THE AREA.
BREEZY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS TODAY ALONG WITH HIGH MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL CREATE AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS INLAND ACROSS THE
AREA EACH DAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 95 73 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 88 80 93 80 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 95 76 96 76 / 0 0 20 0
SGJ 90 76 93 76 / 10 0 0 0
GNV 95 74 95 74 / 10 0 10 10
OCF 94 75 95 74 / 20 10 30 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page