520
FXUS62 KJAX 062339
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
739 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAILY ROUNDS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING
- INCREASING RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN THE ONSHORE FLOW
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
A PATTERN SHIFT IS ONGOING, WITH ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING COASTAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW 90 TODAY AND SHIFTING FOCUS FOR STORMS FURTHER
INLAND AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PUSHES WEST THIS AFTERNOON. OVER
MOST INLAND AREAS, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR A
FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. DCAPE IS NOT SUPER IMPRESSIVE, BUT THERE
IS PLENTY OF SURFACE INSTABILITY PRESENT. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS AROUND 40-50 MPH, HOWEVER WITH HIGHER PWATS ANY
TRAINING/SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK,
ESPECIALLY OVER TYPICAL FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
CONVECTION WILL WANE OFF AFTER SUNSET, WITH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. TONIGHT, SOME PATCHY INLAND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS NORTHEAST FL BEACHES FRIDAY
AN INVERTED TROUGH WITH ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 2.2"
SWEEPS OVER THE FL PENINSULA FRIDAY AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW 10-15 KTS FRIDAY
WILL BRING MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WITH COVERAGE
EXPANDING INLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON. GREATER STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST FL WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH. INLAND SHOWERS AND STORM FADE FRIDAY EVENING, BUT COASTAL
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES. SATURDAY, STEERING FLOW SHIFTS MORE TO THE SOUTH BUT
WEAKENS TO LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH HIGH MOISTURE LINGERING OVER
NORTHEAST FL AND ALSO EXPANDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. THE DEEP
MOISTURE, WEAK STORM MOTION, LINGERING LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BRING THE RISK OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. AT
THIS TIME, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE LOCAL AREA
HIGHLIGHTED UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) OF FLASH
FLOODING RAINFALL ON SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND AVERAGE IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 COAST WITH DAILY PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR
100. MUGGY AND MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY THUNDERSTORMS
- HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL RETURNS NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGING MID TO LATE WEEK REGARDING HOW FAST THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND YIELDS TO TROUGHING TRYING TO CARVE SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC SEA BOARD. EXTENDED CONSENSUS FAVORS A
LOCAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING DEW PTS WITH
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF AMERICA INCREASING LOCAL
HEAT INDEX VALUES MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY TO NEAR LOCAL HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES 108-110 DEG POSSIBLE. DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL TREND LOWER THAN AVERAGE GIVEN THE UPPER
RIDGE BRINGING INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR
MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. EVEN GIVEN ISOLATED STORMS, THEY COULD BE
STRONG GIVEN HIGH DCAPE AND CAPABLE OF STRONG WET DOWNBURSTS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING THROUGH 03-04Z WITH BEST
CHANCES AT GNV/VQQ/SGJ AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA AND
MVFR CONDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDS THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS AT MULTIPLE LAYERS. SOME MVFR FOG
POSSIBLE AT VQQ/GNV DUE TO WET GROUND CONDITIONS FROM RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON. APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE FROM THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY
WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL CHANCES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW WITH
AT LEAST -SHRA CHANCES BY 12-15Z, THEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TEMPO
TSRA ACTIVITY WITH MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS AT ALL TERMINALS STARTING
IN THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. HAVE PLACED THE BEST TIMING POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS WITH
EARLIEST TIMING FOR COASTAL TERMINALS TO LATER TIMING AT THE INLAND
NE FL TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS IN TSRA ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
BREEZY EAST WINDS AT 12-13G18-20 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER BERMUDA WILL BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHIFTING FLOW FROM EAST
AND SOUTHEAST TODAY TO MORE EAST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE EAST WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 5 FEET FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DAILY ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE, SOME OF WHICH WILL
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES.
RIP CURRENTS: A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHEAST/ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
WITH SOME INCREASE IN WIND WAVES WILL BUILD SURF/BREAKERS TO 2-3
FEET TODAY WITH A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK EXPECTED. FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND SEES POTENTIAL SURF/BREAKERS OF 3-4 FEET AND
CORRESPONDING INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.
FIRE WEATHER
PREVAILING SOUTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
COASTAL STORMS SHIFTING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL IMPACT COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND STORMS SATURDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT
LINGERING OVER THE AREA UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. DAYTIME
DISPERSION WILL BE GENERALLY GOOD FRIDAY THEN GENERALLY GOOD TO FAIR
SATURDAY WITH INCREASED RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.
FOG POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED, WITH
SHALLOW, PATCHY FOG LATE OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO AREAS THAT RECEIVE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 93 72 92 / 30 40 40 70
SSI 78 88 77 89 / 30 40 70 70
JAX 74 90 75 90 / 30 50 60 80
SGJ 76 88 75 88 / 50 80 60 80
GNV 72 90 73 89 / 50 70 20 90
OCF 72 89 73 89 / 70 80 20 80
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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