731
FXUS62 KJAX 070619
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
219 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED STRONG STORM POTENTIAL EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DAILY ROUNDS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY.
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS:
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING TODAY FOR NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES, MODERATE RISK FOR SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES TODAY
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD
WHILE AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST. DEEP TROPICAL-LIKE MOISTURE WILL RISE
TO ABOUT 2.2 INCHES, OR FAR WETTER THAN NORMAL, WHILE THE SOUTHEAST
FLOW PUSHES THIS DEEP MOISTURE FURTHER INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND GREATER INSTABILITY WILL LEAD
TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IN THE MORNING
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE MARINE WATERS, AND THEN INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WILL ADVERTISE POPS OF ABOUT 40-70 PERCENT FOR
NORTHEAST FL, AND 20-40 PERCENT FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA WHERE THE
FORCING FOR CONVECTION LOOKS WEAKER. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FADE
IN THE EVENING, BUT STAY ELEVATED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE
MARINE WATERS GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. MOST OF ALL
THE GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE HREF AND REFS, SHOW THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS MAY BE TO NEAR 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SAMPLED SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOW LINGERING DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH COULD AID IN A STRONG STORM TODAY THAT MAY RESULT IN GUSTS
OF 45-55 MPH. IF CELLS ORGANIZE TO A BROKEN LINE/MULTI-CELL
PATTERN, THEN A DOWNBURST PULSE SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 COAST WITH DAILY PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
NEAR 100-105. MUGGY AND MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S COAST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES THIS WEEKEND
SATURDAY, ATLANTIC RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER BERMUDA AND
EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
WILL EXTEND INTO GA/SC WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE FL
COASTAL WATERS TO THE SE GA COAST. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN
AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE EVENING HOURS AS THE INVERTED
TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REESTABLISHES
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS (PWATS)
IN EXCESS OF 2.25 INCHES WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND AFTER MORNING
COASTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T'STORMS LIFT FROM THE SE GA WATERS,
THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE ENERGY, DIURNAL HEATING, AND PROGRESSIVE
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP NUMEROUS T'STORMS SHIFTING FROM I-95
TO WESTERN COUNTIES ALONG I-75 AND US-441. HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS AND
SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL SUPPORT SLOW MOVING T'STORMS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS (RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR) BRINGING A RISK OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS IN LOW-LYING, FLOOD PRONE, AND URBAN
LOCATIONS. WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. ISOLATED
STRONGER T'STORMS FORMING ALONG STORM CELL MERGERS OR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WET DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 40-
50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY WITH UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST AND AROUND 90 ALONG I-95 AND NEAR NORMAL WEST OF I-
95 IN THE LOW 90S.
SATURDAY NIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T'STORMS WILL
CONTINUE WELL INLAND UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE FADING WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T'STORMS PERSIST OVER THE SE GA COASTAL
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND AND THE MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST.
SUNDAY, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS AND EXTEND ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE EXITS NE FROM THE CAROLINA COAST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW BOTH ATLANTIC/GULF SEABREEZES TO MERGE
INLAND WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN PWATS TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES
SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS T'STORMS COVERAGE. HIGHS WILL WARM
ON SUNDAY TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND
AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AT THE COAST FROM DECREASING CLOUDS FROM
THE RIDGE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
- HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL RETURNS NEXT WEEK
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE FL
PENINSULA MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL
ALLOW FOR LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS STAYS ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND PROMOTE
DAILY SEABREEZE CIRCULATION THAT WILL FAVOR THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE
PROGRESSING FURTHER INLAND TOWARDS I-95 WHILE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
STAY PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST. DECREASING PWATS THROUGH THE WEEK
TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS 1.6-1.8 INCHES WILL LEAD TO
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED T'STORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER, AN
ISOLATED STRONGER T'STORM COULD DEVELOP WITH HIGH DCAPE VALUES DUE
TO DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE ENHANCING WET DOWNBURSTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY HEAT UP NEXT WEEK WITH LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND AND NEAR 90 ALONG THE COAST MONDAY RISING TO THE MID/UPPER
90S INLAND AND LOW/MID 90S ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE STAYING NEAR TO JUST OFFSHORE THE BEACHES MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INCREASED SUNSHINE AND HEIGHTS FROM THE RIDGE. THE
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WILL
SUPPORT PEAK HEAT INDICES INTO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS OF 108-110 MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S
INLAND AND UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE, NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT, FOR A
SHOWER NEARING SGJ, CRG, AND SSI TOWARD SUNRISE. AS DEEP MOISTURE
ROTATES INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST STARTING AFTER 12Z, ENHANCED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. FIRST GOOD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL TAFS STARTING
AT ABOUT 12Z/13Z, AND THEN AFTER 16Z/17Z FOR GNV. WITH HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IS MOVING IN, WE CAN EXPECTED SOME MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY
IFR SHRA/TSRA DURING THE DAY, THOUGH EXACT TIMING IS TRICKY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS NEAR 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
EASTERLY UP TO 10-15 KT DURING THE DAYTIME. ANTICIPATE GUSTY WINDS
OF ABOUT 25-30 KT IN CONVECTION.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OVER BERMUDA WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND BUILD SEAS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA WATERS. IN
ADDITION, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
OVER THE AREA WATERS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
OVER THE AREA WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A WEAKER WIND FLOW.
RIP CURRENTS: WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AND SEAS AT AREA
BUOYS HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY TO ABOUT 2 FT. AN
INCREASE IN WIND WAVES AND BREEZIER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUT THE RISK
SOLIDLY IN MODERATE TO HIGH TODAY. BY SATURDAY, WE WILL LIKELY BE
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. THE RISK MAY
BE A TOUCH LOWER RISK ON SUNDAY, BUT STILL CLOSE TO THE MODERATE
TO HIGH CATEGORY. IN ANY EVENT, SWIMMING CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
PREVAILING EASTERLY WINDS TODAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
COASTAL STORMS SHIFTING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL IMPACT COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INLAND SATURDAY TURNING BREEZY AND
MORE EASTERLY BEHIND THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE AS IT SHIFTS WELL WEST
OF I-95. BY SUNDAY, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY WITH THE TROUGH
LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A WEAKER ATLANTIC SEABREEZE CLOSER TO
THE COAST TURNING WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY.
DAYTIME DISPERSIONS WILL BE GENERALLY GOOD TODAY THEN GENERALLY FAIR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED, WITH
SHALLOW, PATCHY FOG LATE OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO AREAS THAT RECEIVE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
EQUIPMENT
KVAX 88D RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO BAD ELEVATION ENCODER AND WILL BE
UNAVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE UNTIL THE PART ARRIVES AND
REPAIR IS MADE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 92 73 90 73 / 30 10 60 30
SSI 88 78 88 78 / 40 70 80 30
JAX 89 74 89 74 / 60 30 80 10
SGJ 88 77 88 75 / 70 30 70 20
GNV 89 73 90 73 / 70 20 70 30
OCF 89 74 90 74 / 70 20 80 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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