768
FXUS62 KJAX 071639
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1239 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED
STRONG STORM POTENTIAL EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAILY ROUNDS OF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY. MODERATE
TO HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS:
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY NE FL BEACHES, MODERATE RISK FOR
SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES TODAY
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTUNUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WILL END THIS EVENING INLAND, BUT THE INVERTED TROUGH
WILL KEEP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW, HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S AT THE
COAST, THE LOWER 90S FURTHER INLAND. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 70S WILL BE
COMMON TONIGHT, EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED FLOOD
POTENTIAL EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES THIS WEEKEND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN
MORE TOWARD THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOONS, DRIVEN BY DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES. WEAK INVERTED TROUGHS WILL DEVELOP IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE CHANCES.
THERE WILL BE A GREATER DAYTIME GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES FROM EAST
TO WEST ON SATURDAY DUE TO STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY, OTHERWISE
READINGS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
- HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL RETURNS NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS AREA. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION.
THE RIDGE WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH MID WEEK, AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE REGION WILL THEN BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND THIS STALLED FRONT TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
IN GENERAL, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK.
A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS, ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY RAINFALL.
INLAND SITES SHOULD HAVE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT, WHILE SHOWERS
LINGER AT COASTAL SITES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OVER BERMUDA WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND BUILD SEAS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA WATERS. IN
ADDITION, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
OVER THE AREA WATERS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
OVER THE AREA WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A WEAKER WIND FLOW.
RIP CURRENTS: WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AND SEAS AT AREA
BUOYS HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY TO ABOUT 2 FT. AN
INCREASE IN WIND WAVES AND BREEZIER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUT THE RISK
SOLIDLY IN MODERATE TO HIGH TODAY. BY SATURDAY, WE WILL LIKELY BE
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. MAYBE A TOUCH
LOWER RISK ON SUNDAY, BUT STILL CLOSE TO THE MODERATE TO HIGH
CATEGORY. IN ANY EVENT, SWIMMING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE OVER REGION TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND STALLS.
FOG POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED, WITH
SHALLOW, PATCHY FOG LATE OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO AREAS THAT RECEIVE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 88 73 92 / 20 80 30 50
SSI 77 88 78 90 / 80 80 20 40
JAX 74 89 74 92 / 40 60 10 70
SGJ 76 88 75 90 / 50 60 20 30
GNV 73 89 73 92 / 20 70 40 60
OCF 74 90 74 92 / 30 60 40 40
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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