631
FXUS62 KJAX 072351
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
751 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED STRONG STORM POTENTIAL EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DAILY ROUNDS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY. MODERATE
TO HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
UPDATE
INLAND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED, BUT FEW SHOWERS ARE
MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS SE GA AND I-95 INTO NASSAU COUNTY, BUT
OTHERWISE A LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INLAND WITH INCREASING
COASTAL SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE SE GA AND TOWARDS DAWN OVER
THE NE FL COAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO NEAR CALM INLAND
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID
70S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE NE FL COAST AND AROUND 80
ALONG THE SE GA COAST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED FLOOD
POTENTIAL EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES THIS WEEKEND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN
MORE TOWARD THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOONS, DRIVEN BY DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES. WEAK INVERTED TROUGHS WILL DEVELOP IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE CHANCES.
THERE WILL BE A GREATER DAYTIME GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES FROM EAST
TO WEST ON SATURDAY DUE TO STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY, OTHERWISE
READINGS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
- HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL RETURNS NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS AREA. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION.
THE RIDGE WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH MID WEEK, AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE REGION WILL THEN BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND THIS STALLED FRONT TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
IN GENERAL, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK.
A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR CEILINGS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ONLY FEW SHOWERS AND VCSH OVER THE NORTHEAST
FL TAF SITES, BUT SHOWERS AGAIN SHIFTING TO SSI AFTER 02Z, THEN
OFFSHORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO SGJ/CRG/JAX
AFTER 04-06Z WHILE STAYING DRY INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. RESTRICTIONS
FOR LOW MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT GNV 08Z TO 12Z.
COASTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON THE
COAST WITH BRIEF GUSTY SHOWERS, THEN THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
WILL PUSH ONSHORE AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A OFFSHORE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. HAVE
PROB30 GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS/MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30
KNOTS IN STRONGER STORMS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS INLAND 4-8 KNOTS
WILL BE EASTERLY AT THE COAST BEHIND THE SEABREEZE 8-10 KNOTS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OVER BERMUDA WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND BUILD SEAS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA WATERS. IN
ADDITION, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
OVER THE AREA WATERS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
OVER THE AREA WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A WEAKER WIND FLOW.
RIP CURRENTS: WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AND SEAS AT AREA
BUOYS HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY TO ABOUT 2 FT. AN
INCREASE IN WIND WAVES AND BREEZIER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUT THE RISK
SOLIDLY IN MODERATE TO HIGH TODAY. BY SATURDAY, WE WILL LIKELY BE
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. MAYBE A TOUCH
LOWER RISK ON SUNDAY, BUT STILL CLOSE TO THE MODERATE TO HIGH
CATEGORY. IN ANY EVENT, SWIMMING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE OVER REGION TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND STALLS.
FOG POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED, WITH
SHALLOW, PATCHY FOG LATE OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO AREAS THAT RECEIVE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 88 73 92 / 20 80 30 50
SSI 77 88 78 90 / 80 80 20 40
JAX 74 89 74 92 / 40 60 10 70
SGJ 76 88 75 90 / 50 60 20 30
GNV 73 89 73 92 / 20 70 40 60
OCF 74 90 74 92 / 30 60 40 40
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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