354
FXUS62 KJAX 081208
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
808 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ISOLATED STRONG
STORM POTENTIAL EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS WEEKEND.
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY. MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES SUNDAY.
- EXTREME HEAT RETURNS NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 110F.
HEAT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS:
- HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY,
WITH A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING.
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.
A BROAD, SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM
OVER THE EASTERN GULF TO OUR FORECAST AREA AND TO THE GA AND
SC COASTS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE WEAK SFC RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW OVER
THE REGION WILL START OUT FROM THE SOUTHEAST ABOUT 10-15 KT, AND
VEER TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE TODAY. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT
IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWS HIGH VALUES GENERALLY FROM ABOUT 2 INCHES
TO 2.3 INCHES, THOUGH THERE IS SOME DRIER AIR OVER INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA BELOW 1.7 INCHES NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BAXLEY TO
DOUGLAS. GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW CHANGES, WIDESPREAD PWATS OF
2.1 TO 2.4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND THE TROUGH FEATURE,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS WILL BE OVER THE MARINE
WATERS AND BRUSHING THE COASTAL AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE
ATLANTIC, AND ALSO FORMING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE,
THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE. IT WON'T TAKE MUCH
TIME FOR THIS DEEP CONVECTION TO FORM THIS MORNING GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINFALL. REGARDING THE LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT, HREF AND REFS SHOW A FEW POCKETS OF 3-5 INCHES IN A FEW
SPOTS. HOURLY RAIN RATES COULD EASILY BE 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR IN
SOME STORMS, WHICH WILL CAUSE A HIGHER CONCERN IN URBAN AREAS
AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.
PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY END THIS EVENING INLAND, BUT THE
TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND THE MOIST AIRMASS MAY KEEP A LOW
THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS, BUT ESPECIALLY THE
MARINE WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW, HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S
AT THE COAST, THE LOWER 90S FURTHER INLAND. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
70S WILL BE COMMON TONIGHT, EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
SUNDAY, MID/UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SURFACE TROUGH EXITS NE ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW BOTH
THE ATLANTIC/GULF SEABREEZES TO MERGE INLAND AND ALONG WITH HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW/SURFACE
TROUGH (PWATS 2.0- 2.25 INCHES) WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED T'STORMS
BECOMING NUMEROUS INLAND AS THE O SEABREEZES/OUTFLOWS MERGE. A
FEW STRONG T'STORMS WITH GUSTY WET DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 40-50
MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WITH BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, T'STORMS WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
LOW/MID 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AT THE COAST FROM
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE RIDGE AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING
OVER 102-106. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND THE UPPER
70S ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY, THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TREND MORE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FL FROM BERMUDA AND PREVENT THE
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE FROM PRESSING IN MUCH PAST I-95. LOWER PWATS
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS OF 1.6-1.9 INCHES WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF
T'STORMS WITH ISOLATED T'STORMS INLAND AS THE GULF SEABREEZE
ADVANCES ACROSS NE FL AND SCATTERED ALONG I-95 AS IT MERGES WITH
THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE. A FEW STORMS COULD BE BRIEFLY STRONG.
HIGHS WILL RISE MONDAY WITH LOW TO MID 90S INLAND AND NEAR 90
ALONG THE COAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO RISE TO AROUND
104-108 AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER
70S ALONG THE COAST, BUT WILL STAY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
- HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL RETURNS.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE
FL PENINSULA THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THE TROUGH WILL CREATE LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
AXIS STAYS ACROSS CENTRAL FL. DRIER AIR UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WHILE ALSO SUPPRESSING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE GULF SEABREEZE ADVANCES AND MERGES WITH THE
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE NEAR THE NE FL COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN NEXT WEEK, RISING TO THE
MID/UPPER 90S INLAND AND LOW/MID 90S ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND ATLANTIC SEABREEZE REMAINING NEAR/JUST
OFFSHORE THE BEACHES MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S AT THE
COAST WILL SUPPORT PEAK HEAT INDICES INTO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS
OF AROUND 110 DEGREES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND
UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
PERIODS OF LOW MVFR CEILINGS OF 1,000 - 2,000 FEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 16Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
ADJACENT TO SOUTHEAST GA EARLY THIS MORNING MAY IMPACT THE SSI
TERMINAL AFTER 13Z, AND WE HAVE INSERTED A PROB30 GROUP THROUGH
AROUND 14Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DURING POTENTIALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. PLEASE CHECK FOR AMENDMENTS THIS MORNING AS
CONVECTION APPROACHES THE SSI TERMINAL. WE EXPECT THAT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING NEAR THE NORTHEAST FL
TERMINALS AFTER 16Z, AND WE HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR BRIEF
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AND IFR VISIBILITIES AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS BY 03Z, WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT VQQ. EAST OR
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS
MORNING AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z, EXCEPT SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS AT GNV
OUTSIDE OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION. SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER 01Z THIS
EVENING.
MARINE
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH
BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AND OCCASIONALLY ROUGH SEAS. IN
ADDITION, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT
TIMES OVER THE AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING
IN A SLOW LOWERING OF WINDS AND SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS: SEAS AT COASTAL BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING 4-5 FT
WITH COASTAL OBSERVATIONS SHOWING DUE EAST FLOW ABOUT 10 MPH.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER SLIGHTLY TODAY, BUT STILL BE IN THE
10-15 MPH RANGE. THE ROUGH SEAS AND ELEVATED WINDS SUGGESTS HIGH
RISK FOR AREA BEACHES TODAY SO EXTENDED THE HIGH RISK INTO
SOUTHEAST GA. NWPS RIP CURRENT GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS RIP CURRENT
PROBABILITIES HIGHER THAN 75-80 PERCENT OVER LARGE AREAS OF THE
COASTLINE TODAY.
MAYBE A TOUCH LOWER RISK ON SUNDAY, BUT STILL CLOSE TO THE
MODERATE TO HIGH CATEGORY. IN ANY EVENT, OCEAN SWIMMING
CONDITIONS ARE NOT SAFE THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS INLAND TODAY.
- PATCHY HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY.
A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
INLAND TURNING BREEZIER AND MORE EASTERLY BEHIND THE ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE PRESSING WELL INLAND. SUNDAY, THE TROUGH WILL LIFT
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS ATLANTIC SEABREEZE MOVES PAST US-17 TO NEAR
HIGHWAY 301 BEFORE MERGING WITH GULF SEABREEZE WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH AT THE COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE FL PENINSULA NEXT WEEK AS A
TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
PATCHY LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS EXPECTED INLAND TODAY DUE TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NUMEROUS COASTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST TODAY ALONG WITH LIGHT TRANSPORT
WINDS AWAY FROM THE COAST. DAYTIME DISPERSIONS WILL BE GENERALLY
FAIR TO GOOD SUNDAY AND GOOD MONDAY. PATCHY HIGH INLAND
DISPERSIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE UNDER THE RIDGE.
FOG POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED, WITH
SHALLOW, PATCHY FOG LATE OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO AREAS THAT RECEIVE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 90 73 93 74 / 70 20 50 20
SSI 88 78 90 78 / 80 20 30 10
JAX 90 74 93 75 / 70 20 50 10
SGJ 89 76 90 76 / 60 20 40 0
GNV 91 74 93 74 / 70 20 50 10
OCF 91 74 93 74 / 60 20 40 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page