192
FXUS62 KJAX 081929
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
329 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
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- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING AT INLAND LOCATIONS.
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH SUNSET AT ALL AREA
BEACHES.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY,
MAINLY INLAND.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS NEXT WEEK AS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DECREASE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING AT INLAND LOCATIONS.
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH SUNSET AT ALL AREA
BEACHES.
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM FROM NORTH CENTRAL FL NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA, WITH THIS FEATURE GULF STREAM
WATERS ADJACENT TO SOUTH CAROLINA, WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. MEANWHILE, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE (1025
MILLIBARS) WAS CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA, WITH THIS FEATURE
EXTENDING ITS AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. ALOFT...DEEP-
LAYERED ATLANTIC RIDGING WAS BUILDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
AREA, WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 2.1 - 2.4 INCHES. THE 2.41 INCH
PWAT VALUE CALCULATED BY THIS MORNING'S RADIOSONDE AT
JACKSONVILLE TIED THE RECORD FOR AUGUST 8TH (SINCE 1956).
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IMPACTED THE I-95 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 17 AND
301 CORRIDORS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS,
WITH VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND DOWNBURST WINDS PEAKING AROUND 40
MPH AT MANY LOCATIONS. ANVIL RAINS AND SPORADIC LIGHTNING
STRIKES CONTINUES AT THESE LOCATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
STORMS HAVE RECENTLY MOVED OFFSHORE FOR COASTAL ST. JOHNS AND
FLAGLER COUNTIES, WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS NOW SPREADING
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR
90 WHERE CONVECTION HAS YET TO DEVELOP, WHILE TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE AT RAIN-COOLED LOCATIONS AS
OF 19Z.
THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT, EXITING INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE AXIS OF DEEP-LAYERED ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BUILD SLOWLY
NORTHWARD FROM THE FL PENINSULA AS THIS INVERTED TROUGH PIVOTS
AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM STRONG STORMS THAT
IMPACTED THE I-95, U.S. HIGHWAY 17 AND 301 CORRIDORS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE MID- AFTERNOON HOURS WILL SHIFT FURTHER
INLAND ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL THROUGH AROUND SUNSET, WITH CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST
GA LIKELY REMAINING SCATTERED IN NATURE. COLLIDING MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY CAUSE AT LEAST A FEW STORMS TO PULSE AND
BECOME STRONG, WITH DOWNBURST WINDS OF 40-50 MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS IN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE TONIGHT AS RESIDUAL SHOWERS AT
INLAND LOCATIONS DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT, WITH DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
THINNING OUT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUNDAY: THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CAROLINA COAST AS THE MID/UPPER-
LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY, ALLOWING THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF SEA BREEZES TO PENETRATE INLAND AND
EVENTUALLY MERGE BETWEEN INTERSTATES 75 AND 95. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH PWATS AROUND 2.02.25 INCHES. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE, STRONG DIURNAL HEATING, AND SEA
BREEZE/OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS, BECOMING NUMEROUS INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG, PRODUCING 40-50
MPH WET DOWNBURST WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST, WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 102-106 DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MONDAY: THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA, RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL LIMIT THE INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE, KEEPING IT PRIMARILY
NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR, WITH PWATS
FALLING TO 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES, WILL SUPPORT LOWER STORM COVERAGE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER INLAND ALONG THE
GULF SEA BREEZE, WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR WHERE THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZES CONVERGE. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY STRONG.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND AND AROUND 90
DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. HEAT INDICES WILL INCREASE TO 104 TO
108 DEGREES, WITH LOCALIZED VALUES NEAR 109 DEGREES POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CLAY, WESTERN PUTNAM, SOUTHWEST
DUVAL, AND EASTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. WHILE THESE VALUES MAY
APPROACH OR LOCALLY REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, SCATTERED
AFTERNOON RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT THE DURATION AND
COVERAGE OF THE HIGHER HEAT INDICES, LIKELY PRECLUDING THE NEED
FOR AN ADVISORY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.
HIGHS WILL RISE MONDAY WITH LOW TO MID 90S INLAND AND NEAR 90
ALONG THE COAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO RISE TO AROUND
104-108 AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER
70S ALONG THE COAST, BUT WILL STAY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, GENERALLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED.
- HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL RETURNS.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY AN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA,
WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID SOUTH AND NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES TO OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FAVOR A
HOT, INCREASINGLY RAIN- LIMITED PATTERN. DRIER AIR BENEATH THE
RIDGE WILL PROMOTE STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING AND LIMIT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE GULF OF
AMERICA SEA BREEZE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD EACH AFTERNOON, WITH
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND NEAR AREAS OF
GULF/ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE EAST OF INTERSTATE 95.
HEAT WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 90S ALONG
THE COAST. A PREVAILING OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE NEAR OR JUST REMAINING OFFSHORE FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE WEEK,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S INLAND
AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED HEAT
INDICES. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 102 TO 107
DEGREES, WITH MAXIMUM AFTERNOON VALUES POTENTIALLY REACHING 108
TO 110 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
THE NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS WE
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. THE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION ALSO
HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY MIDWEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.
PERSISTENT HEAT AND ELEVATED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE CUMULATIVE HEAT STRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S PROVIDING LIMITED RELIEF.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS, SSI AND SGJ THROUGH AROUND
21Z, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY EXPAND WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE GNV TERMINAL AFTER 20Z,
WHERE BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AND IFR VISIBILITIES
DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 22Z.
RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER AT GNV THROUGH AROUND 00Z. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS AFTER
01Z SUNDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT VQQ
AFTER 04Z. LOW MVFR CEILINGS OF 1,000 - 2,000 FEET ARE THEN
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 14Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL RESUME
TOWARDS 00Z AS CONVECTION CONCLUDES, FOLLOWED BY SURFACE WINDS
SHIFTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 14Z SUNDAY.
MARINE
TROUGHING OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND
WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE. ELEVATED SEAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE THIS FEATURE WEAKENS WHILE SINKING
SOUTHWARD BY MIDWEEK AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS, WITH
UNSEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL.
RIP CURRENTS: BREAKERS OF 3-4 FEET AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES
AND 2-3 FEET AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES WILL KEEP A HIGH RISK
IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL AREA BEACHES. BREAKER
HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE ON SUNDAY AT AREA
BEACHES, WITH THESE SEAS COMBINING WITH A RESIDUAL EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY OCEAN SWELL TO YIELD A HIGHER END MODERATE RISK AT
ALL AREA BEACHES. BREAKERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS PREVAILING WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY, WITH A LOWER END
MODERATE RISK FORECAST DUE TO THE RESIDUAL OCEAN SWELL AND
ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE
PUSHES INLAND.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY,
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND TO NEAR HIGHWAY 301
BEFORE MERGING WITH THE GULF SEA BREEZE, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH AND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH NEAR THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA,
RESULTING IN DECREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
DAYTIME DISPERSIONS WILL BE GENERALLY FAIR TO GOOD SUNDAY AND
GOOD MONDAY AS MIXING IMPROVES. PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND AREAS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AS INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS DEVELOP BENEATH THE
RIDGE.
FOG POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED, WITH
SHALLOW, PATCHY FOG LATE OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO AREAS THAT RECEIVE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 93 74 94 / 40 40 20 30
SSI 80 90 78 91 / 20 30 10 20
JAX 76 92 74 93 / 20 50 20 40
SGJ 77 90 75 91 / 20 30 10 20
GNV 75 92 74 93 / 30 40 20 30
OCF 76 93 74 94 / 30 30 20 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...NONE.
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