217
FXUS62 KJAX 082353
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
753 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS NEXT WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE EACH
DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH EXCEPTIONS ALONG THE COAST FOR
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 02Z AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ENDED OVER THE AREA. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-8 KNOTS
WILL DECREASE TO CALM INLAND WITH LOW IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AT
JAX/VQQ/GNV 09-13Z. SUNDAY, LOW MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT THE
DUVAL TAF SITES AND THE COAST BEFORE SCATTERING TO AROUND 2.5 TO
3.5 KFT AFTER 18Z AS A WEAK TROUGH LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE 8-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AND 5-8 KNOTS
AT VQQ WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT GNV AROUND 5-8 KNOTS. HAVE VCTS
AFTER 18Z WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT CRG/JAX/VQQ/GNV WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KNOTS, BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR SSI AND SGJ.
MARINE
TROUGHING OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
BERMUDA BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE. ELEVATED SEAS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE THIS FEATURE
WEAKENS WHILE SINKING SOUTHWARD BY MIDWEEK AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS, WITH
UNSEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL.
RIP CURRENTS: BREAKERS OF 3-4 FEET AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES AND
2-3 FEET AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES WILL KEEP A HIGH RISK IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL AREA BEACHES. BREAKER HEIGHTS WILL FALL
TO THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE ON SUNDAY AT AREA BEACHES, WITH THESE SEAS
COMBINING WITH A RESIDUAL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY OCEAN SWELL TO YIELD A
HIGHER END MODERATE RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES. BREAKERS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PREVAILING WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY,
WITH A LOWER END MODERATE RISK FORECAST DUE TO THE RESIDUAL OCEAN
SWELL AND ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY
A WEAK TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY,
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND TO NEAR HIGHWAY 301 BEFORE
MERGING WITH THE GULF SEA BREEZE, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 5
TO 10 MPH AND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH NEAR THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS POSITIONED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, RESULTING IN DECREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
DAYTIME DISPERSIONS WILL BE GENERALLY FAIR TO GOOD SUNDAY AND GOOD
MONDAY AS MIXING IMPROVES. PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS INLAND AREAS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS DEVELOP BENEATH THE RIDGE.
FOG POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED, WITH
SHALLOW, PATCHY FOG LATE OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO AREAS THAT RECEIVE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 93 74 94 / 40 40 20 30
SSI 80 90 78 91 / 20 30 10 20
JAX 76 92 74 93 / 20 50 20 40
SGJ 77 90 75 91 / 20 30 10 20
GNV 75 92 74 93 / 30 40 20 30
OCF 76 93 74 94 / 30 30 20 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...NONE.
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