845
FXUS62 KJAX 090612
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
212 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTS 40-50 MPH POSSIBLE &
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING. DECREASING STORM COVERAGE MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
- MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY,
AND MODERATE RISK MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS NEXT WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE EACH
DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS:
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE
- MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE AREA AT 2 AM, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS, PUSHING NORTHWARD IN THE MEAN STEERING FLOW FROM
THE SOUTH AT ABOUT 10 KT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE FROM
NEAR MAYPORT NORTHWARD TO ST SIMONS ISLAND THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
FOR TODAY, THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC BUILDS
IN ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND NUDGES INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MEAN
LAYER FLOW IS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ABOUT 5 TO 10 KT AND PWAT IMAGERY AND
GUIDANCE SHOW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.9 TO 2.3 INCHES TODAY. OVERALL, THE
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE DECREASED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. PLENTIFUL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE AND WE HAVE NOTED LOW LEVEL MEAN MIXING
RATIOS ARE VERY HIGH AT ABOUT 18 G/KG ON FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS.
EXPECT THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEA BREEZES TO PENETRATE INLAND AND
EVENTUALLY MERGE BETWEEN INTERSTATES 75 AND 95. THE COMBINATION OF
HIGH MOISTURE, STRONG DIURNAL HEATING, AND SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, AND MAY BECOME
NUMEROUS OVER A COUPLE OF INLAND COUNTIES, DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. POPS ARE GENERALLY SHOWN AT 30-55 PERCENT TODAY. A
FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG, PRODUCING AROUND 50 MPH WET
DOWNBURST WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OF ABOUT 3+ INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THE WPC
SHOWS A MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK MAINLY FOR THE INLAND
AREAS LATER TODAY WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE, BUT THE RISK DOES NOT
LOOK AS HIGH WAS IT WAS ON SATURDAY BASED ON GUIDANCE. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST, WITH
PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 103-107 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
- INCREASING HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS EACH DAY
MONDAY, THE MEAN 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE TO
THE SOUTHWEST, NEAR THE EAST CENTRAL FL COASTAL WATERS. WEAK LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL WILL LIMIT THE PROGRESS OF
THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE MUCH PAST I-95. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL DRIFT
OVER THE AREA UNDER THE HIGH AND WITH NEAR SEASONAL PWATS OF 1.7-1.9
INCHES. THE DRIER AIR AND LACK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE OF T'STORMS AS STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND SURFACE LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GULF SEABREEZE SURFACE WITH ISOLATED T'STORMS
AS THE GULF SEABREEZE MOVES EAST ACROSS NE FL BEFORE MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED T'STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR I-95 AS IT MERGES WITH THE
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE. A FEW STORMS COULD BE BRIEFLY STRONG WITH WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.
HIGHS WILL RISE MONDAY WITH LOW TO MID 90S ALONG AND WEST OF I-95
AND AROUND 90 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 104-108 FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH ISOLATED VALUES OF 106 TO
110.
MONDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION WILL END AFTER SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BY MIDNIGHT UNDER THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN CALM INLAND AND 5-10 MPH ALONG THE COAST.
LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND AND
ALONG THE UPPER 70S.
TUESDAY, MID LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE NE GULF
WATERS AND STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. SUBSIDENCE
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH ONLY
ISOLATED T'STORMS NEAR THE I-95 AND US-17 CORRIDORS OF NE FL AND
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 301 IN SE GA. THE WSW WINDS 5-10 MPH WILL
PREVAIL WITH THE BEACHES TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY 8-12 MPH BEHIND THE
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE AS IT MOVES ONSHORE AND HELPS TO KICK OF THE
LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RISE TO THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST
WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE BEACHES. THE HOTTER COASTAL HIGHS WILL RAISE
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS 106-110 AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN MUGGY IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S AT
THE COAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- LIMITED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
- HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL RETURNS EACH DAY
THE 500MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA POSITIONED FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE COAST INTO CENTRAL FL. A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL SE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ON WHETHER
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT AWAY TO THE NW AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE CAROLINA COAST. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTH FL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS
WILL ALLOW THE COAST WILL HEAT UP TO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH MID 90S
ALONG I-95 AND MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID
70S INLAND AND THE MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST IN THE LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW.
WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS SE GA WHILE STAYING
DRY OVER NE FL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY OVER SE GA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE FL.
DAILY PEAK INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 110 ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
THE DUVAL COUNTY TAF SITES, AND POSSIBLY FOR GNV, BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT AND LIFTING BY ABOUT 12Z. VQQ SITE IS SHOWING
LIFR CONDITIONS, WHICH MAY LAST FOR A FEW HOURS.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS, FOR A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS FIELD THAT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS FROM 13Z TO 17Z. MAY SEE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS FORM FROM 16Z TO
18Z, WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS AFTER 18Z. WON'T BE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS SATURDAY, BUT CHANCE
ENOUGH TO HAVE PROB30 TSRA GROUPS. MAY NEED TO HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR
JAX AND VQQ IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z, AND WILL TURN SOUTHEAST
BEHIND THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE 8-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST AND 5-8 KNOTS AT VQQ WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT GNV AROUND
5-8 KNOTS.
MARINE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH UNSEASONABLY
DRY CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL.
RIP CURRENTS: LATEST BUOYS SHOW ABOUT 3 FT SEAS AND DOMINATE
WAVE PERIOD OF 8/9 SECONDS FROM THE EAST. WHILE ORDINARILY NOT HUGE
CONCERN, WE HAD RIPS YESTERDAY, MORE ROUGH SURF, AND LIKELY
DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CHANNELS SO OPTED TO RAISE ANOTHER HIGH RISK FOR
TODAY FOR THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES AND WILL HAVE MODERATE RISK FOR
SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. IN ADDITION, LOW TIDE IS ABOUT 11AM TO NOON
WHICH HEIGHTENS THE RISK. SUPPORTING GUIDANCE FROM THE NWPS
MODEL SHOW PROBABILITIES OF 70-90 PERCENT TODAY.
BREAKERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PREVAILING
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY, WITH A LOWER RISK FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY
TODAY, A TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS ATLANTIC SEABREEZE MOVES TO US-
17 AND MERGES WITH THE GULF SEABREEZE NEAR HIGHWAY 301 WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 MPH BEHIND THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE PASSAGE WITH
GUSTS 15-20 MPH AT THE COAST TURNING LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH
BEHIND THE GULF SEABREEZE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE FL
PENINSULA NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH DECREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS KEEPING THE ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 90S AT THE COAST BY TUESDAY
WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING TO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS 106-110
INTO MIDWEEK.
DAYTIME DISPERSIONS WILL BE IN THE FAIR RANGE INLAND TODAY, BUT POOR
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER.
DISPERSIONS IMPROVE TO THE GOOD RANGE ON MONDAY. PATCHY HIGH INLAND
DISPERSIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS MIXING
HEIGHTS INCREASE UNDER THE RIDGE ALONG WITH INCREASING WESTERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS.
FOG POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED,
WITH SHALLOW, PATCHY FOG LATE OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO AREAS THAT
RECEIVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOWS WITH LOCALLY ERRATIC WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 93 74 95 75 / 30 30 20 10
SSI 90 78 92 79 / 30 10 20 0
JAX 92 75 94 75 / 40 20 30 0
SGJ 90 75 91 76 / 30 10 20 0
GNV 93 74 94 74 / 40 20 30 0
OCF 93 75 94 75 / 30 20 10 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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