731
FXUS62 KJAX 091208
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
808 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH WIND GUSTS
OF 40-50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY,
MODERATE RISK AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS THIS WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS:
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES.
FOR TODAY, THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE
ATLANTIC BUILDS IN ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND NUDGES INTO OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MEAN LAYER FLOW IS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ABOUT 5 TO 10
KT AND PWAT IMAGERY AND GUIDANCE SHOW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.9 TO 2.3
INCHES TODAY. OVERALL, THE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE DECREASED
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE
AND WE HAVE NOTED LOW LEVEL MEAN MIXING RATIOS ARE VERY HIGH AT
ABOUT 18 G/KG ON FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS. EXPECT THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZES TO PENETRATE INLAND AND EVENTUALLY MERGE
BETWEEN INTERSTATES 75 AND 95. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE,
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING, AND SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, AND MAY BECOME NUMEROUS
OVER A COUPLE OF INLAND COUNTIES, DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. POPS ARE GENERALLY SHOWN AT 30-55 PERCENT TODAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG, PRODUCING AROUND 50 MPH WET
DOWNBURST WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OF ABOUT 3+ INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THE
WPC SHOWS A MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK FOR THE INLAND
AREAS LATER TODAY WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE BUT THE RISK DOES NOT
LOOK AS HIGH WAS IT WAS ON SATURDAY BASED ON GUIDANCE.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST, WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 103-107 DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.
- INCREASING HEAT INDEX VALUES EACH AFTERNOON, WITH VALUES NEAR
HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY.
MONDAY, THE MEAN 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST, NEAR THE EAST CENTRAL FL COASTAL
WATERS. WEAK LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL
WILL LIMIT THE PROGRESS OF THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE MUCH PAST
I-95. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA UNDER THE HIGH
AND WITH NEAR SEASONAL PWATS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES. THE DRIER AIR
AND LACK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF
T'STORMS AS STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND SURFACE LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GULF SEABREEZE SURFACE WITH ISOLATED
T'STORMS AS THE GULF SEABREEZE MOVES EAST ACROSS NE FL BEFORE
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED T'STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR I-95 AS IT MERGES
WITH THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE. A FEW STORMS COULD BE BRIEFLY
STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.
HIGHS WILL RISE MONDAY WITH LOW TO MID 90S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 AND AROUND 90 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 104-108 FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH ISOLATED
VALUES OF 106 TO 110.
MONDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION WILL END AFTER SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BY MIDNIGHT UNDER THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN CALM INLAND AND 5-10 MPH ALONG THE
COAST. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S
INLAND AND ALONG THE UPPER 70S.
TUESDAY, MID LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE NE
GULF WATERS AND STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA.
SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WITH ONLY ISOLATED T'STORMS NEAR THE I-95 AND US-17
CORRIDORS OF NE FL AND ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 301 IN SE GA.
THE WSW WINDS 5-10 MPH WILL PREVAIL WITH THE BEACHES TURNING
SOUTHEASTERLY 8-12 MPH BEHIND THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE AND HELPS TO KICK OF THE LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RISE TO THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE
COAST WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE BEACHES. THE HOTTER COASTAL HIGHS
WILL RAISE PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS
106-110 AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN MUGGY IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND THE
UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- LIMITED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
- HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL EACH DAY.
THE 500MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA POSITIONED FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE COAST INTO CENTRAL FL. A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL SE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ON WHETHER THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT AWAY TO THE NW AS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE CAROLINA
COAST. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO
SOUTH FL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE COAST WILL
HEAT UP TO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH MID 90S ALONG I-95 AND MID TO
UPPER 90S INLAND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND AND
THE MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST IN THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.
WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS SE GA WHILE
STAYING DRY OVER NE FL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER SE GA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE FL.
DAILY PEAK INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 110 ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT VQQ AND GNV THROUGH AROUND 13Z,
WITH VISIBILITIES LIKELY IMPROVING TO MVFR BY 14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 15Z. LOW MVFR
CEILINGS OF 1,000 - 2,000 FEET ARE THEN FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGIONAL TERMINALS AFTER 15Z, WITH PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 18Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
DEVELOP ALONG INLAND MOVING SEA, RIVER, AND LAKE BREEZES THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS
FOR BRIEFLY GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AT SSI, THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS, AND
SGJ, MAINLY AFTER 18Z. CONFIDENCE REMAINS A LITTLE TOO LOW FOR
TEMPO GROUPS AT GNV, WHERE A PROB30 GROUP FOR BRIEFLY GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WAS
MAINTAINED. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS TOWARDS 00Z. IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AT VQQ AFTER 04Z MONDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS BY 15Z,
FOLLOWED BY THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PUSHING INLAND
AFTER 17Z, RESULTING IN SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS AT SGJ AND SSI BEFORE 18Z. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL RESUME ONCE
CONVECTION MOVES AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS TOWARDS 00Z, WITH
DIMINISHING SPEEDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT THE INLAND TERMINALS.
MARINE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN PUSH SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
UNSEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL.
RIP CURRENTS: LATEST BUOYS SHOW ABOUT 3 FT SEAS AND DOMINATE
WAVE PERIOD OF 8/9 SECONDS FROM THE EAST. WHILE ORDINARILY NOT
HUGE CONCERN, WE HAD RIPS YESTERDAY, MORE ROUGH SURF, AND
LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CHANNELS SO OPTED TO RAISE ANOTHER
HIGH RISK FOR TODAY FOR THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES AND WILL HAVE
MODERATE RISK FOR SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. IN ADDITION, LOW TIDE IS
ABOUT 11AM TO NOON WHICH HEIGHTENS THE RISK. SUPPORTING
GUIDANCE FROM THE NWPS MODEL SHOW PROBABILITIES OF 70-90 PERCENT
TODAY.
BREAKERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PREVAILING
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY, WITH A LOWER RISK FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY.
TODAY, A TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS ATLANTIC SEABREEZE MOVES TO
US- 17 AND MERGES WITH THE GULF SEABREEZE NEAR HIGHWAY 301 WITH
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 MPH BEHIND THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
PASSAGE WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH AT THE COAST TURNING LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH BEHIND THE GULF SEABREEZE. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE FL PENINSULA NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH
EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH
DECREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS KEEPING THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE NEAR THE
COAST EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
INLAND AND LOW TO MID 90S AT THE COAST BY TUESDAY WITH PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING TO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS 106-110 INTO
MIDWEEK.
DAYTIME DISPERSIONS WILL BE IN THE FAIR RANGE INLAND TODAY, BUT
POOR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE
LOWER. DISPERSIONS IMPROVE TO THE GOOD RANGE ON MONDAY. PATCHY
HIGH INLAND DISPERSIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE UNDER THE RIDGE ALONG WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS.
FOG POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED, WITH
SHALLOW, PATCHY FOG LATE OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO AREAS THAT RECEIVE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOWS WITH LOCALLY ERRATIC WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 93 74 95 75 / 40 30 20 10
SSI 90 78 92 79 / 30 10 20 0
JAX 92 75 94 75 / 50 20 30 0
SGJ 90 75 91 76 / 30 10 20 0
GNV 93 74 94 74 / 40 20 30 0
OCF 93 75 94 75 / 30 20 10 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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