292
FXUS62 KJAX 100008
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
808 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ISOLATED TSTORMS REST OF THIS EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH INLAND.
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MONDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTORMS MON - SAT
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS THIS WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE EACH
DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UPDATE
INLAND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ONGOING INLAND MAINLY
SOUTH OF WAYCROSS WITH SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF HAVING TO
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THERE ARE ALSO POCKETS OF LIGHT STRATIFORM
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FIRST COAST AND CAMDEN COUNTY. AN
INCREMENTAL DOWNWARD OF ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
AFTER SUNSET TO NEAR NIL AROUND 10 PM. NEAR CALM WINDS INLAND
WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE
BALMY MID TO UPPER 70S AND AROUND 80 ALONG THE SE GA COAST. LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE PRESENT TO START OFF THE WORK
WEEK AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING SUPPRESSES CONVECTION. MONDAY,
RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL BE AT ABOUT 20-40% FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA
AND THE GEORGIA COAST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
- INCREASING HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS EACH DAY
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE PRESENT TO START OFF THE WORK
WEEK AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING SUPPRESSES CONVECTION. MONDAY, RAIN/STORM
CHANCES WILL BE AT ABOUT 20-40% FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE
GEORGIA COAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
ARE FORECAST TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, AND CLOSER TO
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND STORM
COVERAGE, HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO
UPPER 90S. MAX AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 100-
108 DEGREES, A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME LOCATIONS EITHER
OR BOTH DAYS. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG,
ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVE A LOT OF RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
- HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL EACH DAY
STORM CHANCES REMAIN LOWER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES GENERALLY MAXING OUT AROUND 40% EACH
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY, CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10 AS WELL AS DOWN THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED INLAND THURSDAY, WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AREA-WIDE BUT STILL PEAK IN THE
40-50% RANGE.
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR HOT TEMPERATURES EACH DAY,
EVEN AT THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST BEACHES AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
WILL BE PINNED FROM PUSHING INLAND. MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA NEAR THE COAST AND FOR SOME
INLAND LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 02Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING AT ALL BUT THE VQQ
TERMINAL OVERNIGHT, WHERE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL BY 12Z.
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE PRESENT MONDAY AFTERNOON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING SUPPRESSES CONVECTION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS STARTING OFF
WITH VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BETWEEN 18 TO 20Z.
MARINE
WEAK TROUGHING SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
WITH BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN
PREVAIL BEGINNING ON MONDAY, WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHERLY
EVENING WIND SURGE. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
CAUTION LEVELS THIS WEEK. ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY
IMPACTING THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: BREAKERS OF 2-3 FEET WILL COMBINE WITH AN EASTERLY
OCEAN SWELL AND THE OUTGOING TIDE TO KEEP A HIGH RISK IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES. LOWER SURF HEIGHTS AT THE
SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK. BREAKERS WILL
SUBSIDE ON MONDAY AS PREVAILING WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY, BUT THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL COMBINE WITH A LINGERING OCEAN SWELL TO
PRODUCE A LOWER END MODERATE RISK AT AREA BEACHES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY LOWER THIS
RISK BY MIDWEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE NEAR
THE COAST EACH DAY, WITH LOWER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED MONDAY
ONWARD, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE AROUND 20-40%. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 90S AT THE
COAST BY TUESDAY WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING TO HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS 106-110 INTO MIDWEEK. DISPERSIONS IMPROVE TO THE GOOD RANGE
ON MONDAY. PATCHY HIGH INLAND DISPERSIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO THE
END OF NEXT WEEK AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE UNDER THE RIDGE ALONG
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS.
FOG POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED, WITH
SHALLOW, PATCHY FOG LATE OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO AREAS THAT RECEIVE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
OUTFLOWS WITH LOCALLY ERRATIC WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 75 95 76 95 / 30 10 10 30
SSI 77 92 78 94 / 10 20 10 30
JAX 75 93 75 95 / 20 30 10 20
SGJ 77 91 76 93 / 10 20 10 10
GNV 75 93 74 94 / 30 30 10 10
OCF 75 93 74 94 / 30 20 10 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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