930
FXUS62 KJAX 110149
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
949 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA THIS
EVENING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
STRONGER STORMS.
- WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
UPDATE
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1021 MILLIBARS)
CENTERED NEAR THE FL BIG BEND REGION. ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGING WAS POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL FL. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES
PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. UNSTABLE WESTERLY FLOW TO
THE NORTH OF THE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO STEER WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH, WITH
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM ACTIVITY EARLIER THIS EVENING OVER THE
OKEFENOKEE SWAMP AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA MERGING TO KEEP
GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR IN
SOUTHEAST GA. STRONG STORMS THAT HAD BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER ENTRANCE SLIPPED SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LITTLE
ST. SIMONS ISLAND THIS EVENING, WITH THIS ACTIVITY NOW PUSHING
OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO SOUTHEAST GA.
CONVECTION ALONG THE U.S.-301 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST GA SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE MIDNIGHT, WITH DEBRIS CLOUD COVER THINNING OUT
OVER OUR AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND PREDAWN HOURS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS, RANGING TO AROUND 80 AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
WE HAVE INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE I-95 AND U.S.-301
CORRIDORS FROM DUVAL COUNTY NORTHWARD, AS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING
CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
GLIDES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING
CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY CROSSING THE FL/GA BORDER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEA BREEZES. THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN WILL BOOST HIGHS TO MID AND UPPER 90S INLAND, WITH A
LATER DEVELOPING AND LIKELY PINNED ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE ALLOWING
COASTAL HIGHS TO SOAR TO THE LOW AND MID 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS,
AND HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG.
- INCREASING HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS EACH
DAY.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE INHIBITED FOR
NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM OUT OF THE EAST AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME RELATIVELY MORE
WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES MORE INTO THE
GULF AND HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE CROSS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR
STORMS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FOR AREAS EAST OF
I-75. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE MID 70S OVER INLAND AREAS AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ALONG THE COASTLINE. HEAT INDEX VALUES DURING THIS PERIOD
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO BE WELL ABOVE 100 FAHRENHEIT AND
POTENTIALLY RISING TO NEAR HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
- HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL EACH DAY.
- HIGHER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY RESULTING IN A
MORE SOUTHERLY AND ONSHORE FLOW GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, AHEAD OF
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM OUT OF
THE ATLANTIC BEFORE THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. DAILY BOUTS OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH CONVECTION FORECASTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON
FRIDAY AND THEN DIMINISHING OVER THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING ABOVE 110 AND LIKELY REACHING HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS DURING PERIODS OF PEAK HEATING.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN COASTAL
SOUTHEAST GA WILL LIKELY IMPACT SSI BEFORE 02Z, WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AND IFR VISIBILITIES DURING HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. CONVECTION ELSEWHERE NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER WILL
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM JAX TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR VCTS
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS BY 04Z. IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS ON
TUESDAY AT VQQ. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST FL ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, MAINLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS DEVELOPING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES CONVECTION SOUTHEASTWARD. WE
HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT SSI AFTER 20Z FOR BRIEF WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS, ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES DURING
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THE
NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS TOO LOW FOR
ANYTHING OTHER THAN VCTS, GENERALLY AFTER 18Z. VCTS WAS LEFT OUT
OF THE GNV TAF AT THIS TIME, WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 5-10
KNOTS AT THE SSI AND SGJ COASTAL TERMINALS SHOULD DIMINISH TO
AROUND 5 KNOTS BY 06Z, WHILE SPEEDS AROUND 5 KNOTS AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 03Z. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS BY 15Z. THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15
KNOTS AT SGJ AND SOUTHERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS AT SSI AFTER 17Z.
MARINE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT COASTAL SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER ENTRANCE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE, ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ITS AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
WATERS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS
TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WITH
PREVAILING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED DEVELOPING ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY EVENING WIND SURGES.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW CAUTION LEVELS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER ROUND
OF POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS, WITH
SOME IMPACT POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
WATERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS, MAINLY NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE.
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOWER END MODERATE RISK MAY CONTINUE AT THE
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
DEVELOP FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SEA BREEZE. LOW SURF HEIGHTS
WILL LIKELY YIELD A LOW RISK AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. A LOW RISK
IS THEN EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AT AREA
BEACHES AS OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW SURF HEIGHTS PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY, WITH LOWER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND FORECAST TO BE AROUND
20-40%. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOWS
WITH LOCALLY ERRATIC WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 90S INLAND AND LOWER TO MID
90S AT THE COAST TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
RISING TO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS TO ABOUT 106-110 INTO MIDWEEK.
DISPERSIONS IMPROVE GRADUALLY TODAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. PATCHY HIGH
INLAND DISPERSIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS MIXING HEIGHTS
INCREASE ALONG WITH INCREASING WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS.
FOG POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED, WITH
SHALLOW, PATCHY FOG LATE OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO AREAS THAT RECEIVE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BY THU-FRI:
THURSDAY, AUGUST 13TH:
KJAX: 99/2023
KAMG: 100/9999
KCRG: 96/2023
FRIDAY, AUGUST 14TH:
KJAX: 99/2023
KGNV: 97/2023
KCRG: 98/2023
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 75 95 76 95 / 10 40 20 20
SSI 80 93 79 95 / 10 60 30 30
JAX 75 96 75 94 / 10 60 40 50
SGJ 78 93 76 94 / 10 30 20 40
GNV 75 95 74 93 / 10 30 0 20
OCF 74 95 74 94 / 10 20 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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