298
FXUS62 KJAX 111104
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
704 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT
ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY. HEAT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEDNESDAY
- WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING TSTORMS TODAY- THURSDAY. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA ON
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING TSTORMS FRIDAY - SUNDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS:
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7PM
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, MORE
NUMEROUS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST
- BRIEF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE, WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST LESS THAN 10 MPH ARE TRENDING
CALM INLAND UNDER SOME REMAINING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO
SUNRISE AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST WILL
ONLY COOL ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES UNTIL DAWN. ONLY VERY LOCALIZED
SHALLOW GROUND FOG EXPECTED THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING.
TODAY, MID LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE NE GULF
WATERS AND STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. SUBSIDENCE
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF
INLAND AREAS ALONG WITH PWATS UNDER 2.0 INCHES, WHILE NORTHERN AND
COASTAL PORTIONS OF SE GA, THANKS TO PWATS ELEVATING TO 2.0 TO 2.25
INCHES, WILL SEE SCATTERED T'STORMS BECOME NUMEROUS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT PASSES EAST SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL GA INTO SC AND HELPS INCREASE LIFT AND INSTABILITY
THERE AS THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE HOVERS ALONG THE COASTLINE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG THE NE FL COAST
ESPECIALLY FROM JACKSONVILLE SOUTHWARD DUE TO SUPPRESSION EFFECTS
FROM THE RIDGE AND LESS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INFLUENCE ALOFT. A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS 40-50 MPH, WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THE PREDOMINANT WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO HOT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND TODAY WITH MID 90S AT
THE COAST AS WELL AS THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE NOT LIKELY MOVING
ONSHORE BEYOND THE BEACHFRONT COMMUNITIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HOT
TEMPERATURES AND MOIST, MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL
CREATE HEAT INDICES WELL OVER 100 PEAKING 108-110 TODAY. THEREFORE,
A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7PM TODAY BEFORE
TEMPERTURES AND HEAT INDICES FALL NEAR SUNSET.
TONIGHT, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE COAST, BEFORE
SHIFTING AND WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD DUE TO MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AFTER LINGERING MID TO HIGH LEVEL STORM
CLOUDS DISPERSE BY MIDNIGHT, SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S ALONG
THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG
- HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS EACH DAY WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY, THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY A DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE GULF AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING ALONG THE
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PREVAILING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS. SUPPRESSIVE AFFECTS FROM THE RIDGE ALOFT AND THE LOW
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NEAR OR
BELOW AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES, GENERALLY IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE.
MAIN AREAS OF HIGHER POPS WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND AROUND
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING
HOURS, AND SOME LINGERING WEAK CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE HEAT
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY WITH FAIRLY HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF AN ADVISORY. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE
ANTICIPATED.
FOR THURSDAY, SUBTLE CHANGES OCCUR AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GULF RETROGRADES TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF, WHILE EAST COAST
TROUGHING DIPS FURTHER SOUTH, AND GRADUALLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES
BY LATE THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS, ABOUT 30-40 PERCENT FROM I-10 SOUTHWARD, AND ABOUT 20-30
PERCENT TOWARD INLAND SOUTHEAST GA. ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED IN THE
EVENING AS WELL, AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY
GIVEN THE DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUT FOR NOW
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE WILL ADVERTISE 10 PERCENT CHANCE. OF
COURSE, LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S. HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SO HAVE
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WE'LL NEED AN ADVISORY.
EACH DAY, A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE AND
THE FAIRLY HIGH PWAT AIR. NOTED DOWNDRAFT CAPE OF ABOUT 700-900 J/KG
ARE SEEN IN NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
- HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL EACH DAY. NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES
- HIGHER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, AS PREFRONTAL TROUGHING AND A WEAK FRONT
MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED IN
GUIDANCE OVER OUR NORTH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH DAY, PROBABLY NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE. THERE MAY BE SOME TAPERING
OFF OF CHANCES ON MONDAY BUT CONFIDENCE AT THE DAY 7 DAY FRAME IS
LOW. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 105 TO 110 AND LIKELY
REACHING HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING PERIODS OF PEAK HEATING. THE
ONLY THING THAT COULD HAMPER REACHING HEAT ADVISORY IS IF CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPS QUICKLY AND CONVECTION BEGINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
LIMITS OUR HEAT INDICES.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY AFFECTING SITES
CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. GUSTY WINDS, AND RESTRICTIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AND NEAR STORMS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
TODAY, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND WESTWARD AS A
TROUGH FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WITH WINDS PREVAILING
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND MORE WESTERLY THE REST OF THE
WEEK. EACH AFTERNOON, THE SEA BREEZE WILL SHIFT WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHERLY EVENING WIND SURGES WHICH MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO NEAR
CAUTION LEVELS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH EAST FROM THE COAST
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOWER END MODERATE RISK MAY CONTINUE AT THE
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AS BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SEA BREEZE. LOW SURF HEIGHTS WILL
LIKELY YIELD A LOW RISK AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. A LOW RISK IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AT AREA
BEACHES AS OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW SURF HEIGHTS PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE NEAR
THE COAST EACH DAY, WITH LOWER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20-40%. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOWS WITH LOCALLY ERRATIC WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 90S INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 90S
AT THE COAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING
TO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS TO ABOUT 106-110 INTO MIDWEEK. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY, AND MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. PATCHY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS EXPECTED TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE ALONG WITH INCREASING
WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS.
FOG POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED, WITH
SHALLOW, PATCHY FOG LATE OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO AREAS THAT RECEIVE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BY THU-FRI:
THURSDAY, AUGUST 13TH:
KJAX: 99/2023
KAMG: 100/9999
KCRG: 96/2023
FRIDAY, AUGUST 14TH:
KJAX: 99/2023
KGNV: 97/2023
KAMG: 101/2023
KCRG: 98/2023
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 95 76 95 76 / 30 20 30 20
SSI 95 78 95 79 / 60 30 30 20
JAX 95 76 95 76 / 50 20 40 20
SGJ 94 77 95 77 / 20 10 40 20
GNV 94 75 94 75 / 10 0 20 10
OCF 94 75 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-
140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-
433-522-533-633.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
GAZ153-154-165-166.
MARINE...NONE.
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