256
FXUS62 KJAX 111704
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
104 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT
ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST FL & SOUTHEAST GA COAST TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING TSTORMS TODAY- THURSDAY.
A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
GA TODAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING TSTORMS FRIDAY -
SUNDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS:
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7PM
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, MORE
NUMEROUS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER SE GA
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTH FL THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY,
CONVERGENCE ON TROUGH, AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS, AND PARTICULARLY STRONG STORMS, WILL BE OVER SE
GA, DUE TO THE TROUGH.
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING.
WITH THE PREVAILING FLOW FROM THE WEST, THE HEAT WILL BUILD ALL THE
WAY TO THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT ADVISORY LEVEL APPARENT
TEMPERATURE VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR INLAND SE GA, WHERE A BIT OF DRIER AIR WILL BE
IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 70S WILL BE
COMMON.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HEAT ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY. LIKELY ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THURSDAY.
- DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE EAST COAST AND AROUND THE I-10
CORRIDOR. OVERALL, RAIN CHANCES ARE AROUND 20-50% BOTH DAYS, A
LITTLE LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO SUPPRESSIVE AFFECTS FROM A RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE LOW AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER,
WE STILL ANTICIPATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS DUE TO BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.
BIGGEST CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE DANGEROUSLY HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S, EVEN AT THE EAST COAST BEACHES. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL BE AROUND 105-111 DEGREES, HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL EACH DAY, NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES
CONTINUE FRIDAY ONWARD. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S,
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES INLAND AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE 'COOLS' DOWN
THE COAST. AGAIN, MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL BE JUST BELOW OR
AT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH DAY, PEAKING AROUND 105-112 DEGREES.
OVERALL, PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 20-50% EACH
DAY, WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AS A
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. STORMS GENERALLY WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET EACH DAY BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING CLOSER TO
WHEREVER THE FRONT IS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY AFFECTING SITES
CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. GUSTY WINDS, AND RESTRICTIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AND NEAR STORMS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
TODAY, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND WESTWARD AS
A TROUGH FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WITH WINDS
PREVAILING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND MORE WESTERLY THE
REST OF THE WEEK. EACH AFTERNOON, THE SEA BREEZE WILL SHIFT
WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY EVENING WIND SURGES
WHICH MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH EAST FROM THE COAST INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOWER END MODERATE RISK MAY CONTINUE AT THE
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AS BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SEA BREEZE. LOW SURF HEIGHTS WILL
LIKELY YIELD A LOW RISK AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. A LOW RISK IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AT AREA
BEACHES AS OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW SURF HEIGHTS PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE NEAR
THE COAST EACH DAY, WITH LOWER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20-50%. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOWS WITH LOCALLY ERRATIC WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 90S INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 90S
AT THE COAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING
TO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS TO ABOUT 106-112 INTO MIDWEEK. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY, AND MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. PATCHY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS EXPECTED TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE ALONG WITH INCREASING
WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS.
FOG POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED, WITH
SHALLOW, PATCHY FOG LATE OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO AREAS THAT RECEIVE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BY THU-FRI:
THURSDAY, AUGUST 13TH:
KJAX: 99/2023
KAMG: 100/9999
KCRG: 96/2023
FRIDAY, AUGUST 14TH:
KJAX: 99/2023
KGNV: 97/2023
KAMG: 101/2023
KCRG: 98/2023
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 95 76 95 76 / 30 30 30 20
SSI 95 78 95 79 / 60 30 30 20
JAX 95 76 95 76 / 50 20 40 20
SGJ 94 77 95 77 / 20 10 40 20
GNV 94 75 94 75 / 10 0 20 10
OCF 94 75 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ021-023-024-
030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-
233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ021-023-
024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-
232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-
633.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ153-154-165-
166.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ153-154-
162-165-166.
MARINE...NONE.
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