909
FXUS62 KJAX 112325
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
725 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT
ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST FL & SOUTHEAST GA COAST TODAY AND. HEAT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEDNESDAY
- WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING TSTORMS TODAY- THURSDAY. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA ON
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING TSTORMS FRIDAY - SUNDAY
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS:
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7PM
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, MORE
NUMEROUS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER SE GA
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTH FL THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY,
CONVERGENCE ON TROUGH, AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS, AND PARTICULARLY STRONG STORMS, WILL BE OVER SE
GA, DUE TO THE TROUGH.
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING.
WITH THE PREVAILING FLOW FROM THE WEST, THE HEAT WILL BUILD ALL THE
WAY TO THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT ADVISORY LEVEL APPARENT
TEMPERATURE VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR INLAND SE GA, WHERE A BIT OF DRIER AIR WILL BE
IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 70S WILL BE
COMMON.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HEAT ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY. LIKELY ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THURSDAY.
- DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE EAST COAST AND AROUND THE I-10
CORRIDOR. OVERALL, RAIN CHANCES ARE AROUND 20-50% BOTH DAYS, A
LITTLE LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO SUPPRESSIVE AFFECTS FROM A RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE LOW AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER,
WE STILL ANTICIPATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS DUE TO BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.
BIGGEST CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE DANGEROUSLY HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S, EVEN AT THE EAST COAST BEACHES. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL BE AROUND 105-111 DEGREES, HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL EACH DAY, NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES
CONTINUE FRIDAY ONWARD. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S,
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES INLAND AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE 'COOLS' DOWN
THE COAST. AGAIN, MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL BE JUST BELOW OR
AT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH DAY, PEAKING AROUND 105-112 DEGREES.
OVERALL, PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 20-50% EACH
DAY, WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AS A
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. STORMS GENERALLY WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET EACH DAY BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING CLOSER TO
WHEREVER THE FRONT IS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ONGOING IFR CONDS AND GUSTY WINDS IN TSRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AT
SSI UNTIL 02Z, WHILE THE FRINGE OF THIS CONVECTION MAY CLIP JAX SO
HAVE PLACED A PROB30 GROUP FOR MVFR CONDS IN TSRA UNTIL 02Z.
OTHERWISE CONVECTION CHANCES THIS EVENING REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO ONLY
INCLUDE VCTS AT THE REST OF THE NE FL TERMINALS. VFR CONDS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, THEN DIURNAL HEATING WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED TSRA CHANCES AT ALL TAF SITES IN THE 18-24Z ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAVE PLACED PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR
POTENTIAL MVFR CONDS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
MARINE
TODAY, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND WESTWARD AS A
TROUGH FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WITH WINDS PREVAILING
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND MORE WESTERLY THE REST OF THE
WEEK. EACH AFTERNOON, THE SEA BREEZE WILL SHIFT WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHERLY EVENING WIND SURGES WHICH MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO NEAR
CAUTION LEVELS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH EAST FROM THE COAST
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOWER END MODERATE RISK MAY CONTINUE AT THE
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AS BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SEA BREEZE. LOW SURF HEIGHTS WILL
LIKELY YIELD A LOW RISK AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. A LOW RISK IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AT AREA
BEACHES AS OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW SURF HEIGHTS PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE NEAR
THE COAST EACH DAY, WITH LOWER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20-50%. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOWS WITH LOCALLY ERRATIC WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 90S INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 90S
AT THE COAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING
TO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS TO ABOUT 106-112 INTO MIDWEEK. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY, AND MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. PATCHY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS EXPECTED TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE ALONG WITH INCREASING
WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS.
FOG POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED, WITH
SHALLOW, PATCHY FOG LATE OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO AREAS THAT RECEIVE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BY THU-FRI:
THURSDAY, AUGUST 13TH:
KJAX: 99/2023
KAMG: 100/9999
KCRG: 96/2023
FRIDAY, AUGUST 14TH:
KJAX: 99/2023
KGNV: 97/2023
KAMG: 101/2023
KCRG: 98/2023
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 75 95 75 97 / 30 70 20 20
SSI 79 94 78 96 / 30 50 10 20
JAX 76 95 76 95 / 40 50 10 40
SGJ 77 95 76 94 / 30 50 10 30
GNV 75 95 75 94 / 10 40 10 30
OCF 75 95 75 94 / 10 20 10 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ021-023-
024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-
232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-
633.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ153-154-
162-165-166.
MARINE...NONE.
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