241
FXUS62 KJAX 121844
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
244 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON &
EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF OUR
AREA.
- LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS WAVES OF
DOWNPOURS IMPACT PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
- OPPRESSIVE HEAT & HUMIDITY CONTINUES AREA-WIDE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HEAT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY, WITH EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST GA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAILY HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- DAILY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS:
- STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
- LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS WAVES OF
DOWNPOURS IMPACT PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
- HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR
MOST OF OUR AREA.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1019
MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. ALOFT...DEEP-
LAYERED RIDING EXTENDING FROM TEXAS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF WAS PRODUCING DEEP AND UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS FLOW EXITING THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER
ENTRANCE. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR, WHERE
PWATS RANGED FROM 2 - 2.25 INCHES. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS
EXISTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, WHERE PWATS WERE
MOSTLY IN THE 1.7 - 1.9 INCH RANGE. A CONVERGENT ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS FIRING NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST FL, MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS FROM WAYCROSS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
ACTIVITY WAS PROGRESSING BRISKLY SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20-30 MPH.
OUTSIDE OF RAIN-COOLED LOCATIONS, OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
CONTINUES, WITH TEMPERATURES AT 18Z GENERALLY IN THE LOW AND MID
90S, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S DRIVING HEAT INDEX VALUES UP
TOWARDS 105 DEGREES.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EMANATING FROM THE CONVECTIVE ZONE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, WITH INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS CONTINUING TO
PROGRESS QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS IN PLACE, WITH STORMS
ALSO PULSING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. STRONGER CONVECTION
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH,
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PRESENT A RISK FOR TRAINING CONVECTION, AND STORMS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS WILL INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR URBAN OR
NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA,
WHERE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY
POTENTIALLY INTERACTS WITH A PINNED ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL AND THE I-75
CORRIDOR BY THE MID-EVENING HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
FURTHER OFFSHORE OF THE GEORGIA COAST. DEBRIS CLOUD COVER WILL
THIN OUT OVERNIGHT, WITH VIEWING OF THE ANNUAL PERSEID METEOR
SHOWER IMPROVING DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ACROSS OUR AREA FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. OTHERWISE, A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL KEEP
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS EACH DAY. EXTREME
HEAT WARNINGS IN PLACE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES IN SE GA ON
THURSDAY.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN FL THIS
PERIOD, WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN INTO
FRIDAY.
THE FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL KEEP
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM GETTING MUCH FURTHER INLAND
THAN THE BEACHES. THIS WILL HELP THE HEAT TO PUSH ALL THE WAY TO
THE BEACHES. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT
IN HEAT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT
HEAT WARNING LEVELS EXPECTED FOR COASTAL SE GA. CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING.
WITH THE WEAKER HIGH, THE FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG, ALLOWING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH FURTHER
INLAND. CONVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL
INSTABILITY, AND ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR FRIDAY AS THURSDAY, BUT A FEW
DEGREES COOLER AT THE BEACHES DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. HEAT
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HEAT
ADVISORIES LIKELY ON SATURDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON EVENING,
WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY, THEN STALL
NEAR THE FL/GA LINE THROUGH SUNDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THIS PERIOD. THE HIGHEST CHANCE THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON SUNDAY,
DUE TO THE FRONT BEING OVER THE AREA.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
STRONG TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE DUVAL
COUNTY TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 20Z, WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
KNOTS POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGER STORM CELLS, WITH IFR TO LIFR
VISIBILITIES LIKELY DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 22Z. ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD, LIKELY IMPACTING SGJ AND SSI
AFTER 19Z AND POTENTIALLY GNV AFTER 21Z, WHERE BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP
TO 35 KNOTS AND IFR VISIBILITIES DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 01Z. CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
GNV TERMINAL BY 02Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT VQQ, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THE
CONCLUSION OF THIS TAF PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, WEST OR
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KNOTS
THROUGH AROUND 00Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY AROUND
5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TOWARDS SUNRISE, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS BY 14Z
THURSDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THE
SEA BREEZE SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY OR SOUTHERLY OVER THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY EVENING WIND
SURGES THAT MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE SPEEDS TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS
BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF OUR LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS WILL KEEP SURF HEIGHTS BELOW 2 FEET AT AREA BEACHES
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, MAINTAINING A MOSTLY LOW RISK
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
- HEAT HEADLINES IN EFFECT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN FL WITH A
TROUGH TO THE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY, BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE FL/GA LINE
SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL APPROACH TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS PERIOD, WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR OR
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS EACH DAY.
FOG POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED, WITH
SHALLOW, PATCHY FOG LATE OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO AREAS THAT RECEIVE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY:
THURSDAY, AUGUST 13TH:
KJAX: 99/2023
KGNV: 99/2023
KAMG: 100/9999
KCRG: 96/2023
FRIDAY AUGUST 14TH:
KJAX: 99/2023
KGNV: 97/2023
KAMG: 101/2023
KCRG: 98/2023
SATURDAY AUGUST 15TH:
KJAX: 99/1956
KGNV: 100/1918
KAMG: 99/1995
KCRG: 97/9999
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 76 96 77 96 / 10 30 10 30
SSI 79 96 79 95 / 20 30 10 20
JAX 76 95 76 95 / 20 40 10 40
SGJ 78 94 77 94 / 30 40 10 30
GNV 77 95 75 95 / 60 50 30 60
OCF 76 95 75 96 / 50 50 20 40
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ021-023-024-
030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-
233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ021-023-
024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-
232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-
633.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ152>154-162-
165-166-264-350-364.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ132>136-
149-151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
GAZ153-154-165-166.
MARINE...NONE.
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