302
FXUS62 KJAX 272355
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
755 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
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- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
- PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING
- STRONG THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL SHIFT INLAND TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR
THIS WEEKEND
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- WAVES OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING THIS
AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GULF, WITH
COVERAGE EXPANDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH LESS DCAPE AVAILABLE,
AS WELL AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PINNING THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO
THE COAST, THERE WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER STORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, WE CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN/TRAINING STORMS CAUSING
LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. AREAS NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE, URBAN
CITIES, AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN THE
PAST FEW DAYS ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE FLOODING THREAT TODAY.
OVERALL, STORMS WILL WANE OFF AFTER SUNSET, ALTHOUGH WE WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY (AND A FEW STORMS) NEAR THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY PRE-DAWN.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: (FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
- STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
- STRONG STORM POTENTIAL SHIFTS INLAND TO LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95 ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- SLOWER STORM MOTION MAY RESULT IN A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT AT
INLAND LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY AT URBAN OR NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS.
TROUGHING POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION ON FRIDAY,
WITH THE REINFORCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL STALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE,
DEEP-LAYERED ATLANTIC RIDGING CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WILL BEGIN TO
EXTEND ITS AXIS WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY
NIGHT, FORCING TROUGHING TO CUTOFF OVER THE FL PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY, WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE POOLING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND ALSO ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FL. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE
FL BIG BEND AND NATURE COASTS EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING, WITH ACTIVITY
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY
THEN PROGRESSING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONVECTION WILL INTERSECT A PINNED ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE THAT SHOULD
BE POSITIONED NEAR I-95 BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN
STORMS "PULSING" TO STRONG LEVELS AS THEY APPROACH THE ATLANTIC
COAST. STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS OF 40-55 MPH, ALONG
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER EARLY ON FRIDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10 THAT ARE CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
DEEPER MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY CLIMB TO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING IN THE 100-105 DEGREE
RANGE BEFORE CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY CONCLUDE BY MIDNIGHT, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER APALACHEE BAY AND THE EASTERN
GULF POTENTIALLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
FALL TO THE LOW AND MID 70S.
SATURDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY LOCALLY, AS LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AS TROUGHING ALOFT CUTS OFF TO THE WEST OF
OUR AREA AND ATLANTIC RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FL
PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT OUR REGION, WITH PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
STEERING FLOW ALLOWING THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEA BREEZES TO MOVE
FURTHER INLAND AND COLLIDE NEAR THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TOWARDS NOON ALONG THE INLAND
MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES ALONG THE I-95 AND I-75 CORRIDORS, WITH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS INCREASING AT INLAND LOCATIONS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL AGAIN COLLIDE
AND ALLOW FOR STORMS TO "PULSE" AND BECOME STRONG, WITH ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. SLOWER
STORM MOTION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF DOWNPOURS FOCUS AT
URBAN OR NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE, LOW LYING LOCATIONS.
HIGHS WILL AGAIN CLIMB TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY,
WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 DEGREES OCCURRING BEFORE
CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONVECTION THAT CONGREGATES AT INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD DIMINISH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH DEVELOPING ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL COMMUNITIES DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS ON SUNDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP
COASTAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80, WHILE INLAND LOWS MOSTLY
FALL TO THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
- STRONG STORM POTENTIAL SHIFTS TOWARDS THE I-75 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
- GRADUAL DECREASE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 BY TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID 90S BY MIDWEEK AT INLAND LOCATIONS
AS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DECREASES.
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING
CUTOFF TROUGHING OVER THE FL PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY TO RETROGRADE
SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SETTLES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, WHICH WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE I-75
CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ADVECT ONSHORE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE
EARLY TO MID-MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PREVAILING ONSHORE
WINDS SHOULD KEEP COASTAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON
BOTH DAYS, WHILE INLAND HIGHS CLIMB TO THE LOW AND MID 90S.
CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT WEST OF THE SUWANNEE AND ALAPAHA RIVERS
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS, AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH AN INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE
LIKELY LIMITING AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO
ISOLATED FOR INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. DEEPER
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-10,
KEEPING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. A
DRIER AIR MASS MAY THEN ADVECT WESTWARD ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA
TOWARDS MIDWEEK, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
ONSHORE WINDS COULD STILL ADVECT A FEW SHOWERS ONSHORE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL COMMUNITIES EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THIS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES TOWARDS MIDWEEK. LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD ALLOW
INLAND HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 90S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHILE
ONSHORE WINDS KEEP COASTAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO THE LOW AND MID 70S INLAND, WITH UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 FORECAST AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA COULD BRING STRONG GUSTS
TO THE JAX TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. AS STORMS CLEAR THE
AREA, VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING
VQQ WITH THE TYPICAL LOWER VSBYS AROUND 08Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN ONCE AGAIN AROUND 18Z AS THE SEA BREEZES PUSH
INLAND, PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW IN THE TAFS.
MARINE
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN SHIFT ONSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND, THEN TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OVER THE WATERS EARLY THIS
EVENING, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE. DECREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
RIP CURRENTS: A VERY LOW END MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SIMILAR
EXPECTATION ON FRIDAY. PREVAILING WINDS TURN ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND,
LEADING TO A MORE SOLID MODERATE RISK.
FIRE WEATHER
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
OUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, MAINLY
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT TO LOCATIONS WEST OF THE I-
95 CORRIDOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY, WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 DURING THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95 EACH
AFTERNOON FROM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SURFACE
AND TRANSPORT WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY AND THEN
EASTERLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION
VALUES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. LIGHTER SURFACE AND TRANSPORT
SPEEDS ON SATURDAY WILL YIELD POOR TO FAIR DAYTIME DISPERSION
VALUES, FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY FAIR VALUES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT FOG IS UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 90 72 90 / 40 80 40 80
SSI 76 89 76 88 / 20 60 50 60
JAX 73 91 72 90 / 20 60 50 70
SGJ 74 91 74 90 / 20 50 50 50
GNV 72 90 72 91 / 10 80 40 80
OCF 72 91 73 92 / 10 70 40 80
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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