934
FXUS62 KJAX 280403
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1203 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
- PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING
- STRONG THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL SHIFT INLAND TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR
THIS WEEKEND
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND TONIGHT
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY IN THE SW STEERING FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE SE US STATES. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF
MOSTLY DIURNAL DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINING THE MAIN THREAT WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL INTERACT WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED, BUT THE
OVERALL SEVERE STORM THREAT REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE. SW STEERING
FLOW WILL START TO PUSH SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE NE GULF INTO THE
I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLAND NE FL BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND THESE WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY E-NE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
INTERACTING WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLAND NE FL AND ACROSS ALL OF SE GA
WHERE THE DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE, BUT URBAN AREAS OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR MAY BE IMPACTED AS WELL.
MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF INLAND NORTH FL DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND EARLIER START TO CONVECTION, WHILE MAX TEMPS SHOULD PUSH
TO AROUND 90F AND INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF
COASTAL NE FL WHERE A LATER START TO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
SHOWERS AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY FADE AFTER SUNSET AND SHIFT
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OF SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, BUT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: (SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
- STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THIS WEEKEND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTH WITH A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN GA. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER
REGION SATURDAY, THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY.
ABOVE AVERAGE CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD DUE TO
AMPLE MOISTURE, DIURNAL HEATING, AND ADDED INSTABILITY FROM UPPER
TROUGH.
THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO DAYS THIS WEEKEND IS THE FLOW
IS MORE ONSHORE SUNDAY, HELPING TO PUSH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FURTHER
INLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AN UPPER HIGH WILL BE STACKED ON A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE THIS PERIOD.
CONVECTION THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING, AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. WITH A PREVAILING
ONSHORE FLOW THIS PERIOD, THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH WELL
INLAND EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WILL
BE INLAND DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE SEA BREEZE PUSH INLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
THE TYPICAL LOWER VSBYS AT VQQ AROUND 08Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN ONCE AGAIN AFTER 18Z NEAR THE TAF SITES WITH THE SEA
BREEZES, PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW IN THE TAFS. CONVECTION FADES ONCE
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT ONSHORE OVER
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND,
THEN TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE. DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS.
RIP CURRENTS: A VERY LOW END MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. PREVAILING
WINDS TURN ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND, LEADING TO A MORE SOLID MODERATE
RISK AND INCREASE IN SURF/BREAKERS TO 2 TO 3 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY LOW INLAND DISPERSIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY, THEN MORE TO
THE NORTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS PERIOD. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL
RESULT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGING FROM COMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY, TO ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN MORE
SEASONAL NEXT WEEK. AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE, THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT INLAND AFTER TODAY.
FOG POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT FOG IS UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 88 71 87 72 / 80 50 80 30
SSI 87 76 87 77 / 70 60 60 40
JAX 91 73 89 73 / 70 50 60 40
SGJ 90 74 89 75 / 60 40 50 30
GNV 90 72 90 72 / 60 40 70 40
OCF 91 72 92 73 / 50 40 70 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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