160
FXUS62 KJAX 281805
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
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- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- STRONG THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL SHIFT INLAND TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR
THIS WEEKEND
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND TONIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW BROUGHT EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND I-75 CORRIDOR, WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AREA-WIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLOSER TO
THE EAST COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HEAVIER CLOUD COVER IN
THE MORNING AND AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION WILL LEAVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. CLOSER TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
WITH THE HELP OF A LATER START TO CONVECTION. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
AGAIN TODAY DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIALLY CAUSING FLOODING CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT
ARE TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE/URBAN REGIONS. IN ADDITION, WE CAN'T RULE
OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNSET, MAINLY FROM BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. OVERALL, CONVECTION
WILL WANE OFF AFTER SUNSET, BUT LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT UP IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: (SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
- STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THIS WEEKEND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA, WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA. A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY, WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MID-SOUTH. BY SUNDAY, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, RESULTING IN
INCREASINGLY ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ALLOWING THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO PENETRATE PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER INLAND.
DEEP MOISTURE, DIURNAL HEATING, AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LINGERING BUT WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION, WITH POPS OF 50-90 PERCENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. SATURDAY WILL FAVOR GREATER STORM COVERAGE ALONG
AND WEST OF I-95, WHILE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY WILL SHIFT
THE FOCUS FARTHER INLAND, PRIMARILY BETWEEN U.S. 301 AND THE I-75
CORRIDOR.
MOST STORMS WILL BE PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION, WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS
BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A
FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NOT
RULED OUT WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY OVERLAPS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY. HIGH MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS COULD ALSO
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING, PARTICULARLY WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY
MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
- AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, INCREASING HEAT, WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES OF 104-109 DEGREES, PARTICULARLY INLAND
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ESTABLISHED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A PERSISTENT LATE-SUMMER
HEAT REGIME, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
DESPITE THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT, ABUNDANT MOISTURE, DIURNAL
HEATING, AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL SUPPORT DAILY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH WELL
INLAND EACH DAY, FOCUSING THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. POPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 40-60 PERCENT WELL INLAND,
25 TO 40 PERCENT EAST OF INTERSTATE 95, WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE POSSIBLE ALL LOCATIONS TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
MOST STORMS WILL BE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PULSE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, WITH LOCALLY STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
WEAK STORM MOTIONS COULD ALSO RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS.
HEAT WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
STRENGTHENING RIDGING ALOFT PROMOTES INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND A
GRADUAL REDUCTION IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HIGH HUMIDITY AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES OF 105-
109F, ESPECIALLY INLAND AREAS. IMMEDIATE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL
GENERALLY SEE LOWER RAIN CHANCES BUT WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, WITH LOWS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH TEMPOS
IN PLACE FOR MODERATE SHOWERS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. CONVECTION BEGINS TO FADE AFTER SUNSET, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH LOWER VSBYS ONCE AGAIN
LIKELY FOR VQQ AROUND 08Z.
MARINE
COASTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHIFT TO
ONSHORE WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND, THEN TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS.
RIP CURRENTS: A VERY LOW END MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. PREVAILING
WINDS TURN ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND, LEADING TO A MORE SOLID MODERATE
RISK AND INCREASE IN SURF/BREAKERS TO 2 TO 3 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY LOW INLAND DISPERSIONS REST OF TODAY AND SATURDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY TO OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, TURNING
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY TO PREDOMINANTLY ONSHORE
THEREAFTER. THIS TRANSITION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE FOCUS OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TOWARD THE INTERIOR BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT FOG IS UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 88 72 87 72 / 90 50 80 30
SSI 87 76 87 77 / 80 50 40 40
JAX 90 73 89 74 / 70 40 50 30
SGJ 90 75 89 76 / 70 20 30 30
GNV 89 72 91 73 / 50 20 70 30
OCF 90 73 92 73 / 50 20 70 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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