598
FXUS62 KJAX 290404
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1204 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.
STRONG THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL SHIFT INLAND TOWARD THE U.S.
HIGHWAY 301 AND I-75
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY, MAINLY BETWEEN THE I-95 AND US-301
HIGHWAY CORRIDORS
TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION AS STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING TO THE SOUTH OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SE GA WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION AND THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY WASHES OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT CURRENT LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS INLAND SE GA TO END DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, THE EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER
INLAND AREAS TOWARDS SUNRISE. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOP THIS
MORNING WITH AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS WHICH WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND DURING THE TRANSITION TO
THE SE STEERING FLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAX TEMPS REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS INLAND SE GA NEAR THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S, WHILE MOST OF NE FL SHOULD REACH INTO
THE LOWER 90S WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS ALONG THE SLOWLY INLAND EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING, MAINLY FROM THE I-
95 CORRIDOR INLAND TO THE US-301 CORRIDOR, AS PWATS STILL REMAIN ON
THE HIGH SIDE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS BOTH NE FL AND SE GA, MAINLY FROM 3PM-
9PM TIME FRAME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY INLAND
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TOWARDS THE I-75 CORRIDOR,
WHERE SOME INTERACTION WITH THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE COULD CONTINUE
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40-50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH DOWNBURST WINDS OF 60 MPH ACROSS
INLAND NE FL WHERE SOME MORE INTENSE HEATING OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON.
EVENING CONVECTION OVER FAR INLAND AREAS WILL FADE AFTER SUNSET,
THEN AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE/SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, EXPECT FOCUS TO SHIFT TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TOWARDS
MORNING. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S INLAND, AND UPPER 70S
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS TOWARDS MORNING AS WELL.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: (SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
- A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL
AN UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER HEAD THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO
THE NORTHEAST, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL
PUSH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WELL INLAND EACH AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION THIS PERIOD, WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING, AND AIDED
BY THE SEA BREEZE AS IT PASSES THROUGH. WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL
INCREASINGLY BECOME A LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE STRENGTH OF STORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO KEEP THE
DAILY COVERAGE ABOVE AVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR TO LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
- A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST, WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
THE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD AN
ONSHORE FLOW WITH EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING WELL INLAND.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD MORE TOWARD THE EAST LATER IN THE WEEK,
AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE US. THE UPPER HIGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CHANGE IN
POSITION OF THE HIGH LATER IN THE WEEK, WILL LEAD TO MORE OF A FLOW
FROM THE SOUTHEAST VS EAST.
IN GENERAL, SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, THE CHANCE WILL BE
LOWER THIS WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH ALOFT. HEAVY RAINFALL IN STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE THE MAIN HAZARD THIS PERIOD.
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DAILY TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD,
WITH READINGS MOSTLY RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
RAINFALL HAS ENDED AT ALL TAF SITES AND EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 12Z OR SO,
MAINLY AT THE INLAND TERMINALS OF GNV/VQQ/JAX, BUT MAY BE POSSIBLE
AT CRG AS WELL. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL RE-DEVELOP BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST PROB30 GROUPS WITH BEST
CHANCES AT THE INLAND TAF SITES OF GNV/VQQ/JAX AND LOWEST CHANCES
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS. VFR CONDS WILL RETURN AT
TERMINALS BY SUNSET AS CONVECTION MOVES WEST OF THE REGION. ONSHORE
FLOW MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS (VCSH) TO SGJ/CRG/SSI DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TOWARDS THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
A SHIFT TO ONSHORE WINDS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
RIP CURRENTS: A MORE SOLID MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND IN THE ONSHORE FLOW AS SURF/BREAKERS SLOWLY
INCREASE TO 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY, AND REMAIN
CENTERED THERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL BUILD
MORE TOWARD THE EAST LATER IN THE WEEK. PREVAILING ONSHORE WINDS
FROM THE ATLANTIC THIS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING WELL INLAND EACH DAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON, BUT THE CHANCES WILL DECREASE AFTER
MONDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT FOG IS UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 86 72 91 72 / 40 30 50 10
SSI 85 77 87 77 / 40 30 30 20
JAX 90 74 88 74 / 60 20 40 10
SGJ 88 75 87 76 / 40 30 40 10
GNV 91 73 90 73 / 80 40 70 10
OCF 92 73 91 73 / 60 40 60 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page