022
FXUS62 KJAX 292356
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
756 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DAILY AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY:
STRONG THUNDERSTORM RISK NEAR U.S. HIGHWAY 301 & I-75
CORRIDORS. MAIN STORM HAZARDS: LIGHTNING, LOCALIZED FLOODING &
GUSTY WINDS
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES. INCREASED RIP
CURRENT RISK POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY, MAINLY BETWEEN THE I-95 AND US-301
HIGHWAY CORRIDORS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING AS SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH
THE DAY AND SHIFTING TO BECOME MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE
ATLANTIC SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH BECOMES MORE DISORGANIZED, WITH PWAT VALUES OF OVER 2 INCHES
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WHICH MAY RESULT IN HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF
LOCALIZED RAINFALL FOR AREAS WEST OF I-95 CORRIDOR AND EAST OF I-75.
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND IN THE LOWER 90S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S
OVER INLAND AREAS AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR AREAS ALONG THE
COASTLINE AND NEAR THE ST JOHNS RIVER. HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY WILL
RISE TO TO OVER 100 FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: (SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
- LOW FLOODING RAIN RISK INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
EASTERLY FLOW AND COASTAL TROUGHS WILL BRING MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, THEN WITH DIURNAL HEATING RAIN CHANCES
SHIFT INLAND AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPANDS FROM EAST
TO WEST EACH AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS
WILL FOCUS TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHERE BOUNDARY MERGERS FOCUS. ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 2 INCHES. MONDAY, SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
INFILTRATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA, WHICH WILL BRING A DECREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW OF < 10 KTS, A MARGINAL RISK OF FLOODING RAINFALL
(LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) IS ADVERTISED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR AREAS NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR EACH DAY. RAIN CHANCES TAPPER OFF
INLAND BEFORE MIDNIGHT, THEN RESURRECT NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT WITH EASTERLY FLOW. PATCHY INLAND LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR TO LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO LOWER 90S
WELL INLAND AND DAILY PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGF. MUGGY
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
- DAILY THUNDERSTORMS
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE INLAND
- INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK MID-WEEK
EAST TO SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
BETWEEN A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE ANCHORED NORTH OF THE REGION AND
INVERTED TROUGHS/EASTERLY WAVES TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL FOCUS ACROSS NORTHEAST FL WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA, WHICH WILL INFLUENCE DAILY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM
ABOUT 20-40% ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA TO AROUND 40-70% ACROSS NORTHEAST
FL. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, ATLANTIC COAST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES EXPAND
WESTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOONS WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
THE RISK OF ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINFALL
POTENTIAL INCREASES LATE WEEK (THU-FRI) AND DEPENDS ON THE TRACK AND
STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS TS DOLLY AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS AND POSSIBLY CROSSES SOUTH FL. THE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS PASSING WAVE COULD ENHANCE LIFT AND
INCREASE TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST FL, WHICH WOULD FAVOR
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND STORM STRENGTH.
GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DAILY RAIN CHANCE
PATTERN, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S FOR SOUTHEAST GA TO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA
EACH DAY. DAILY PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE
100-105 DEG RANGE WITH DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN LIMITING HEAT ADVISORY
RISK.
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING ESE SWELLS AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS MID WEEK COULD INCREASE THE
LOCAL RIP CURRENT RISK FROM MODERATE TO HIGH IN THE WED/THU TIME-
FRAME.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD FURTHER INLAND, WITH
ONLY GNV HANGING ONTO VCTS AND MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LINGERING
SHRA FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE, MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FOR MOST TERMINALS. LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE ONSHORE AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT THANKS TO AN OFFSHORE INVERTED TROUGH, THOUGH
RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ONLY RESTRICTIONS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INCLUDED WAS AT GNV AND VQQ, WHERE FG/BR IS
EXPECTED. ANY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PROB30 GROUPS
AT ALL AIRFIELDS DIURNALLY ON SUNDAY. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS FOR
COASTAL SITES, AS TSRA DEVELOPMENT MAY BE MOSTLY INLAND THANKS TO
ANOTHER DAY OF ONSHORE FLOW.
MARINE
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL FOCUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INLAND, WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS AREA
WATERS OVERALL.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST THIS
WEEKEND IN THE ONSHORE FLOW AS SURF/BREAKERS SLOWLY INCREASE TO
2 TO 3 FEET. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH A DOMINANT EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. MIDDAY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT INLAND INTO
THE AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN
HIGHWAY 301 AND INTERSTATE 75 IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES. MINIMUM HUMIDLY REMAINS ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.
DAYTIME DISPERSION WILL BE IN THE FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD RANGE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINFALL. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 90 73 91 / 20 40 10 50
SSI 78 88 76 88 / 20 30 30 40
JAX 74 90 74 90 / 20 30 40 50
SGJ 76 88 76 88 / 30 40 40 40
GNV 73 91 73 91 / 20 60 20 80
OCF 73 91 74 91 / 20 70 20 80
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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