489
FXUS62 KJAX 300434
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1234 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DAILY AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY: STRONG
THUNDERSTORM RISK NEAR U.S. HIGHWAY 301 & I-75 CORRIDORS. MAIN STORM
HAZARDS: LIGHTNING, LOCALIZED FLOODING & GUSTY WINDS
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES. INCREASED RIP
CURRENT RISK POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY, MAINLY BETWEEN THE US-301 AND I-75
HIGHWAY CORRIDORS
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SE GA WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW AND
WITH THE COMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS OVER 2
INCHES ACROSS THE LOCAL NE FL/SE GA AREA, EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND PUSH INLAND TO THE US 301 AND I-75
CORRIDORS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
AS THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORM ACTIVITY, ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40-50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE.
MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS, WHILE LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED FURTHER INLAND
AND WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR PEAK HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-105F RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, ALONG WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS OVER INLAND AREAS TOWARDS SUNRISE ON BOTH
MORNINGS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: (SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
- LOW FLOODING RAIN RISK INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA
EASTERLY FLOW AND COASTAL TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE BRING MORNING
COASTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRIMARILY COASTAL
AREAS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH DIURNAL HEATING THEN SHIFTING
THESE RAIN CHANCES INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WILL FOCUS GENERALLY WEST OF
HWY 301 AND TOWARDS AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHERE SEA BREEZE AND OTHER
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY MERGERS FOCUS. HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST FL FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS STACKED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES VERY LITTLE NORTH OF
THE REGION, SUPPORTING GREATER SUBSIDENCE THE FURTHER NORTH INTO
GEORGIA YOU GO. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER AVERAGES NEAR OR OVER 2 INCHES EACH DAY, AND
THEREFORE THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW < 10 KTS WILL
PERSIST A FLOODING RAINFALL THREAT AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD ALONG WITH
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. RAIN CHANCES TAPPER OFF INLAND EACH NIGHT
AROUND THE 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME, THEN RESURRECT NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT WITH EASTERLY FLOW. PATCHY INLAND LATE
NIGHT FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THIS PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND PARTS OF
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER VALLEY TO LOWER 90S WELL INLAND. MUGGY OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
- DAILY THUNDERSTORMS, ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE INLAND
- INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK POSSIBLE BY MID-WEEK
THE OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH CHANGES VERY LITTLE IN
STRENGTH AND POSITION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SIMILAR ONSHORE FLOW
REGIME AS THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THE FOCUS FOR HIGHER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND T'STORMS FOCUSED GENERALLY INLAND AFTER
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST.
THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE WORTH MENTIONING WILL BE THE MOVEMENT OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY, WHICH
COULD HAVE SOME INDIRECT IMPACTS TO OUR REGION REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS PASSING WAVE COULD
ENHANCE LIFT AND INCREASE TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST FL,
WHICH WOULD FAVOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND STORM STRENGTH, AS WELL
AS MORE ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK THANKS TO A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND/OR MORE INTRODUCED LONG PERIOD SWELLS REACHING
THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR MOST TERMINALS. LOWER CLOUDS WILL
MOVE ONSHORE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT THANKS TO AN OFFSHORE INVERTED
TROUGH, THOUGH RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ONLY
RESTRICTIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INCLUDED WAS AT GNV AND VQQ,
WHERE FG/BR IS EXPECTED. ANY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS, WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL AIRFIELDS DIURNALLY ON SUNDAY. LOWEST
CONFIDENCE IS FOR COASTAL SITES, AS TSRA DEVELOPMENT MAY BE MOSTLY
INLAND THANKS TO ANOTHER DAY OF ONSHORE FLOW. CONVECTION WILL END
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD IN THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL FOCUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
INLAND, WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS AREA WATERS OVERALL.
RIP CURRENTS: A MORE SOLID MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND IN THE ONSHORE FLOW AS SURF/BREAKERS SLOWLY
INCREASE TO 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MAINLY PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH THANKS TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW, PLENTY OF MOISTURE, AND A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN
GA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GENERALLY
TOWARDS HIGHWAY 301 TO I-75 AND AREAS FURTHER WEST. OUTSIDE OF
RAINFALL, DISPERSIONS WILL BE ONLY IN THE FAIR RANGE THANKS TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT.
FOG POTENTIAL: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINFALL. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED MORE RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 90 72 90 72 / 60 30 60 10
SSI 86 77 87 77 / 50 30 50 10
JAX 89 74 89 74 / 60 20 50 10
SGJ 87 75 87 76 / 50 30 40 20
GNV 91 73 90 73 / 70 30 70 10
OCF 91 73 91 73 / 80 50 70 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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