506
FXUS62 KJAX 301823
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
223 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DAILY AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TODAY: STRONG
THUNDERSTORM RISK NEAR U.S. HIGHWAY 301 & I-75 CORRIDORS. MAIN
STORM HAZARDS: LIGHTNING, LOCALIZED FLOODING & GUSTY WINDS
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES. INCREASED RIP
CURRENT RISK POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY, MAINLY BETWEEN THE US-301 AND I-75
HIGHWAY CORRIDORS
PREVAILING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH BREAKS
DOWN AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM OUT OF THE EAST SHIFTS
NORTHWARD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OCCURRING OVER INLAND AREAS WEST OF I-95 CORRIDOR AND EAST OF I-75,
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF DESTRUCTIVE WIND
GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE UP INTO
THE LOWER 90S OVER INLAND AREAS AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG
THE COASTLINE AND FOR AREAS NEAR THE ST JOHNS RIVER. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER INLAND
AREAS AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE SHORELINE. HEAT INDEX
VALUES TODAY WILL RISE TO TO OVER 100 FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG
AND LOW CLOUD DECKS OVER INLAND AREAS BEFORE AND AROUND SUNRISE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
- LOW FLOODING RAIN RISK INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA
DURING THIS PERIOD, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SURFACE UP TO
ABOUT 700 MB WILL BE CENTERED FROM EAST TN TO NC, WHILE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL
CONTINUE A PREVAILING EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. MODELS SHOW
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM COASTAL SC TO NORTH FL ON MONDAY
THAT WEAKENS AND DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING UP FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY. MEAN
STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AT ABOUT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PWAT VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 1.9 TO 2.3 INCH RANGE,
HIGHEST MOISTURE PROBABLY BEING LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST FL. WITH THIS
REGIME, MORNING CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THAT PUSHES ONSHORE EACH MORNING, AND THEN BEGINS TO FOCUS FURTHER
INLAND BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. THE I-75 CORRIDOR OVER
NORTHEAST FL MAY BE A HOT SPOT FOR CONVECTION WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING BOTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON GIVEN THAT AREA MAY HAVE BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
HOWEVER, WITH THE PWATS BEING SO HIGH, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN/LOCAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, BUT THE OVERALL HEAVY
RAIN THREAT THERE IS LOWER. GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
REGENERATIVE CONVECTION BOTH DAYS GIVEN THE WIND PROFILE PATTERN AND
THE CORFIDI VECTORS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD TAPPER OFF INLAND EACH NIGHT AROUND THE 10 PM TO
MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME, THEN RESURRECT NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT
WITH EASTERLY FLOW. PATCHY INLAND LATE NIGHT FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND PARTS OF THE ST.
JOHNS RIVER BASIN TO LOWER 90S INLAND. MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, AND LIKELY UPPER 70S AT THE
COAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY THUNDERSTORMS, ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE INLAND
- INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK POSSIBLE BY MID-WEEK
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST DOES NOT CHANGE
MUCH WITH A SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE STAYING JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA MAINTAINING A PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW. FOR WEDNESDAY,
THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH GFS SHOWING 70-85
PERCENT MEAN LAYER RH OVER MOST OF THE AREA, WHICH DOES APPEAR TO
TREND SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS
PATTERN FAVORS ELEVATED DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES, FOR THE AREA WITH POPS
OF AT LEAST THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE EACH DAY. HIGHEST CHANCES ARE
LIKELY GOING TO BE OVER NORTHEAST FL BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE.
THE ONE OTHER FEATURE THAT WE WILL MONITOR IS THE REMNANTS OF
DOLLY, AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS MID WEEK, AND
SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO ONLY HAVE A 20 PERCENT OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS FOR THIS SYSTEM. WHILE SOME INDIRECT IMPACT IS POSSIBLE
WITH ADDITIONAL TROPICAL-LIKE MOISTURE THAT COULD MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
FL BY THE WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW AND SOME RELATIVELY WEAK EASTERLY SWELLS,
AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
VICINITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH FORECAST SITES BY AROUND 20Z
TO 22Z, BUILDING BEYOND COASTAL SITES AND THROUGH THE JAX METRO
SITES AND THEN PRESSING INLAND TOWARDS GNV AND THEN DISPERSING BY
AROUND 03Z TO 05Z. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES EARLY
MONDAY MORNING FOR VQQ AND GNV, STARTING BY AROUND 06Z WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS BY AROUND SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR
BY MIDMORNING WITH MILD OVERNIGHT WINDS TRANSITIONING TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY BY AROUND 15Z.
MARINE
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL FOCUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
INLAND, WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS AREA WATERS OVERALL.
RIP CURRENTS: A MORE SOLID MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REST
OF TODAY IN THE ONSHORE FLOW AS SURF/BREAKERS ARE NOW NEAR 2 TO 3
FOOT RANGE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL
WITH A POSSIBLE MORE ELEVATED THREAT BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS OF ABOUT 13 SECONDS.
FIRE WEATHER
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH THANKS TO THE ONSHORE FLOW,
PLENTY OF MOISTURE, AND A WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GENERALLY TOWARDS HIGHWAY
301 TO I-75 AND AREAS FURTHER WEST. OUTSIDE OF RAINFALL, DISPERSIONS
WILL BE ONLY IN THE FAIR RANGE THANKS TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAKER
WINDS ALOFT.
FOG POTENTIAL: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINFALL. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED MORE RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 91 73 91 / 10 50 20 50
SSI 78 87 78 87 / 10 40 40 50
JAX 74 89 74 90 / 10 40 40 60
SGJ 76 88 75 88 / 10 30 40 50
GNV 73 91 73 90 / 20 70 20 80
OCF 73 91 73 90 / 20 70 20 80
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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