529
FXUS62 KJAX 311321
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
921 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. MAIN IMPACT
AREAS: INLAND NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
- DAILY AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. STORM HAZARDS:
LIGHTNING, LOCALIZED FLOODING AND BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS. MAIN
IMPACT AREAS TODAY: LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95. HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL INCREASES THURS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES. HIGH RISK POSSIBLE
AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES LATER THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY, MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS.
ONSHORE/EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ALONG WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ALREADY IN PLACE WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
DAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS TRANSLATING TO INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING THIS ACTIVITY WELL
INLAND, THEN ENDING AROUND SUNSET OVER FAR INLAND AREAS, THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS RE-DEVELOPING AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND PUSHING TOWARDS THE
COAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT FROM SLOW
MOVING STORMS ALONG WITH ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
TO 40-50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THIS THREAT WILL BE
HIGHEST DURING PEAK HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME WITH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST AND I-95 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER
INLAND AREAS, WHICH WILL RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE
100-105F RANGE. LOW TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S INLAND
AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TOWARDS SUNRISE OVER INLAND
AREAS, BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED EITHER MORNING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES.
- LOW FLOODING RAIN RISK FOR INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AND HEADING INTO MID
WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SURFACE UP TO ABOUT 700
MB REMAINS CENTERED FROM ABOUT EAST TN TO NC WHILE MOVING LITTLE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, AND COASTAL TROUGHING LINGERS EAST OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL CONTINUE PREVAILING EAST AND
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT REGARDING
SOME MORE EXCITED SHORTWAVE ENERGY/MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING,
HELPING TO ENHANCE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS POPS PEAK
IN THE 70-90 PERCENT RANGE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COMBINED
WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES.
THE GENERAL TREND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MORNING MORNING CONVECTION
OVER AREA WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST TRANSITIONING INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. THE
HWY 301 TO I-75 CORRIDOR OVER NORTHEAST FL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BEING THE HOT SPOT OF SORTS FOR MORE ENHANCED
CONVECTION POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING
POTENTIAL AS THE EASTERLY FLOW REACHES THE GULF SEA BREEZE. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD TAPPER OFF INLAND EACH NIGHT AROUND THE 10 PM TO
MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME, THEN RESURRECT TO AN EXTENT NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT WITH EASTERLY FLOW. PATCHY INLAND LATE
NIGHT FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THIS PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND PARTS
OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN TO LOWER 90S INLAND. MUGGY
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, AND LIKELY
UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE, ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
INLAND.
- INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK POSSIBLE MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST DOES NOT
CHANGE MUCH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE
STAYING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA MAINTAINING A PREVAILING
EASTERLY FLOW. SOME CHANGES DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNTIL ABOUT THE
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME FRAME, AS RATHER STACKED HIGH FINALLY
STARTS TO SLIDE TOWARDS EAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT DIVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
THE ONE OTHER FEATURE THAT WE WILL MONITOR IS THE REMNANTS OF
DOLLY, AS THIS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE GULF MID TO LATE WEEK. THE
LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO ONLY HAVE A 10
PERCENT OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS FOR THIS SYSTEM.
WHILE SOME INDIRECT IMPACT IS POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL TROPICAL-
LIKE MOISTURE THAT COULD MOVE INTO NORTHEAST FL BY THE WEEKEND,
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE CONTINUED
EASTERLY FLOW AND SOME RELATIVELY WEAK EASTERLY SWELLS, AN
ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, ESPECIALLY INLAND WITH MORE ONSHORE FLOW.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
LIFR CONDITIONS AT GNV WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO IFR TOWARDS 14Z
AND THEN MVFR BY 15Z. MEANWHILE, PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT SSI THROUGH AROUND 15Z, WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS WILL OTHERWISE BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 16Z AT THE
REST OF THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TOWARDS
17Z, WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING INLAND TOWARDS THE VQQ AND GNV
TERMINALS AFTER 18Z. CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IS
HIGHEST AT GNV, WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR BRIEF SURFACE WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS AND IFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WAS
INSERTED AFTER 20Z THROUGH 00Z. PROB30 GROUPS FOR BRIEF SURFACE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND MVFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WERE MAINTAINED AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS AFTER
15Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY 01Z TUESDAY.
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY MAY APPROACH THE SGJ AND SSI
COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 07Z, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR
ANYTHING OTHER THAN VICINITY SHOWER COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SUSTAINED AT
5-10 KNOTS BY 15Z AT THE INLAND TERMINALS, WHILE SPEEDS INCREASE
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE SSI AND SGJ COASTAL TERMINALS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 23Z THIS
EVENING.
MARINE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OFFSHORE
SHOWERS TO PUSH TOWARDS COASTAL LOCATIONS EACH MORNING, THEN
ONSHORE AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: SOLID MODERATE RISK THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH SURF/BREAKERS OF 2-3 FEET IN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, FEATURING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS FOLLOWING BY MORE AMPLIFIED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GENERALLY TOWARDS HIGHWAY 301 TO I-75 AND AREAS FURTHER WEST.
OUTSIDE OF RAINFALL, DISPERSIONS WILL BE ONLY IN THE POOR TO
FAIR RANGE THANKS TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT.
BEST DISPERSIONS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE FOUND THE FURTHER
WEST/NORTHWEST YOU GO.
FOG POTENTIAL: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINFALL.
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED MORE RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 90 72 90 72 / 50 20 70 0
SSI 85 76 87 77 / 50 30 60 20
JAX 89 74 88 74 / 50 30 60 20
SGJ 88 75 87 75 / 40 30 60 20
GNV 91 73 89 73 / 70 40 80 20
OCF 92 73 90 73 / 70 30 70 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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