178
FXUS62 KJAX 311901
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
301 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE INLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
IMPACT AREAS: INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. HAZARDS: WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. STORM MOTION:
WESTWARD AT 10-15 MPH.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE INLAND EARLY ON
TUESDAY MORNING.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES. HIGH
RISK POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE
I-75 CORRIDOR IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE EARLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING AT INLAND LOCATIONS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1023
MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, WHILE
COASTAL TROUGHING WAS SITUATED OVER OUR NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL DEPRESSION #5 HAS BEEN DESIGNATED TO
THE SOUTH OF COASTAL LOUISIANA, WITH THIS DEVELOPING TROPICAL
CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER
TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTLINE. ALOFT..."HEAT WAVE"
RIDGING WAS CENTERED OVER THE OZARKS AS WELL AS THE TENNESSEE
AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, WITH WEAK TROUGHING OTHERWISE
SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. LATEST GOES-EAST
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE RESIDES ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH PWATS
GENERALLY IN THE 2 - 2.2 INCH RANGE. DOWNPOURS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT SOAKED MUCH OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA AND
COASTAL NASSAU COUNTY, FL EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE SHIFTED
INLAND, WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PROGRESSING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA AND ALSO
MOVING VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ST.
JOHNS RIVER BASIN. TEMPERATURES AT 19Z WERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S AT INLAND LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF ONGOING
CONVECTION, WHILE BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS AND EARLIER RAINFALL WERE
KEEPING COASTAL TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOW AND MID 80S.
DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70S ACROSS OUR REGION.
A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL LOCALLY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY, AS "HEAT WAVE" RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF
OUR AREA AND A COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER OUR LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL FL,
WHERE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL COLLIDE AND POTENTIALLY RESULT
IN A FEW STORMS "PULSING" AND BECOMING STRONG, WITH DOWNBURST
WINDS OF 35-45 MPH POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. DOWNPOURS COULD POTENTIALLY TRAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE I- 75 CORRIDOR, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS SUCH AS GAINESVILLE OR OCALA
THROUGH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY SHIFTS WEST
OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING. DEBRIS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD THIN OUT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, POTENTIALLY
SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND LOCALLY
DENSE FOG AT INLAND LOCATIONS WEST OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301
CORRIDOR TOWARDS SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE LOW
AND MID 70S AT INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE
KEEPING COASTAL LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S.
COASTAL TROUGHING SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT, WITH THIS ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY ADVECTING ONSHORE
TOWARDS THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, GENERALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
- LOW FLOODING RAIN RISK INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
PATTERN FOR INITIALLY ONSHORE MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
DEVELOPING FURTHER INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
DRIFTS SLOWLY TOWARDS TO THE EAST AND OFFSHORE TROUGHING MOVES
INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA, SHIFTING
THE PREVAILING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY THEN END OF THE
PERIOD. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO LEVELS AS HIGH AS
2.5 INCHES WHICH CAN LEAD TO STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. PATCHY INLAND LATE NIGHT FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH LOWER TEMPS OCCURRING IN COASTAL
COUNTIES AND ADJACENT AREAS AS ONSHORE FLOW PUSHES THE EAST
COAST DIURNAL SEA BREEZE FURTHER INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER INLAND AREAS
AND IN THE MID 70S FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR THE ST
JOHNS RIVER. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO BE OVER 100 FOR SOME
AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY THUNDERSTORMS, ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE INLAND.
- INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK POSSIBLE MID TO LATE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND
WEST TOWARDS THE GULF, RESULTING IN A MORE WESTERLY-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND, WITH
DIURNAL BOUTS OF CONVECTION POTENTIALLY BECOMING LESS INTENSE ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DAILY MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL RISE TO BE OVER 100 DURING THIS PERIOD AND A CHANCE
FOR RISING TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE GNV AND POSSIBLY
VQQ TERMINALS AFTER 19Z. WE MAINTAINED A TEMPO GROUP FOR BRIEF
SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AND IFR CONDITIONS DURING
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AT GNV THROUGH 00Z. A PROB30 GROUP FOR BRIEF
SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WAS ALSO MAINTAINED AT VQQ AFTER 19Z THROUGH
AROUND 23Z. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING OTHER
THAN VICINITY SHOWER COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS BY 01Z TUESDAY.
IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER 07Z AT VQQ, WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES FORECAST AFTER 09Z AT GNV. SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON
TUESDAY MAY APPROACH THE SGJ AND SSI COASTAL TERMINALS AND CRG
AFTER 08Z, AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WAS INSERTED THROUGH AROUND 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS BY 14Z, ALTHOUGH
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY THEN DEVELOP TOWARDS 15Z.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH COASTAL TROUGHING REMAINING
SITUATED OVER OUR NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, MAINLY FROM THE LATE EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, WITH DECREASING COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS INLAND. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT OUR
LOCAL WATERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH PROGRESSES
WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ACROSS OUR REGION. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY WINDS SHIFTING
TO WESTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AHEAD OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
RIP CURRENTS: BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH BREAKERS OF 2-3 FEET KEEPING A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN
PLACE AT ALL AREA BEACHES. A HIGH RISK IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES DUE TO THIS PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW, WITH A HIGHER END MODERATE RISK OTHERWISE FORECAST
AT ALL AREA BEACHES LATER THIS WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, FEATURING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS FOLLOWING BY MORE AMPLIFIED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GENERALLY TOWARDS HIGHWAY 301 TO I-75 AND AREAS FURTHER WEST.
OUTSIDE OF RAINFALL, DISPERSIONS WILL BE ONLY IN THE POOR TO
FAIR RANGE THANKS TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT.
BEST DISPERSIONS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE FOUND THE FURTHER
WEST/NORTHWEST YOU GO.
FOG POTENTIAL: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINFALL.
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED MORE RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 91 72 90 / 20 30 10 50
SSI 77 87 78 87 / 40 40 30 50
JAX 74 89 74 89 / 20 40 40 70
SGJ 77 87 76 87 / 30 50 40 70
GNV 74 89 73 89 / 20 80 20 90
OCF 74 89 73 89 / 30 70 20 90
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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