394
FXUS62 KJAX 010037
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
837 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION, UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- PATCHY TO AREAS FOG INLAND AREAS EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING
- DAILY AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUES THROUGH SUN. HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WED & THURS FOR NORTHEAST & NORTH CENTRAL FL
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES. HIGH RISK POSSIBLE
AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES LATER THIS WEEK
UPDATE
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE INLAND AREAS THIS EVENING BUT
SHOULD FADE QUICKLY SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE LIGHT
WINDS AND THE AMPLE MOISTURE WILL LEAD PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT,
ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND. ALONG THE AREA WATERS AND COASTAL ZONES, A
FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE LATE TONIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 301.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE EARLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING AT INLAND LOCATIONS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1023 MILLIBARS)
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, WHILE COASTAL TROUGHING WAS
SITUATED OVER OUR NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION #5 HAS BEEN DESIGNATED TO THE SOUTH OF COASTAL LOUISIANA,
WITH THIS DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
COASTLINE. ALOFT..."HEAT WAVE" RIDGING WAS CENTERED OVER THE OZARKS
AS WELL AS THE TENNESSEE AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, WITH
WEAK TROUGHING OTHERWISE SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD.
LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RESIDES ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH PWATS
GENERALLY IN THE 2 - 2.2 INCH RANGE. DOWNPOURS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT SOAKED MUCH OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA AND COASTAL
NASSAU COUNTY, FL EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE SHIFTED INLAND, WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PROGRESSING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA AND ALSO MOVING VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. TEMPERATURES
AT 19Z WERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AT INLAND
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTION, WHILE BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
AND EARLIER RAINFALL WERE KEEPING COASTAL TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE
LOW AND MID 80S. DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70S ACROSS OUR
REGION.
A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL LOCALLY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY, AS "HEAT WAVE" RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF OUR
AREA AND A COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE I-75
CORRIDOR IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL FL, WHERE
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL COLLIDE AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN A FEW
STORMS "PULSING" AND BECOMING STRONG, WITH DOWNBURST WINDS OF 35-45
MPH POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. DOWNPOURS COULD POTENTIALLY TRAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE I-
75 CORRIDOR, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IN URBAN
AREAS SUCH AS GAINESVILLE OR OCALA THROUGH AROUND SUNSET THIS
EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY SHIFTS WEST OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER EARLY THIS
EVENING. DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD THIN OUT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT, POTENTIALLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
STRATUS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT INLAND LOCATIONS WEST OF THE U.S.
HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR TOWARDS SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL FALL TO
THE LOW AND MID 70S AT INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE
KEEPING COASTAL LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S.
COASTAL TROUGHING SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT, WITH THIS ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY ADVECTING ONSHORE TOWARDS
THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY. BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, GENERALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
- LOW FLOODING RAIN RISK INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA
PATTERN FOR INITIALLY ONSHORE MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
DEVELOPING FURTHER INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DRIFTS SLOWLY
TOWARDS TO THE EAST AND OFFSHORE TROUGHING MOVES INLAND OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA, SHIFTING THE PREVAILING
FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY THEN END OF THE PERIOD. PWAT VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO LEVELS AS HIGH AS 2.5 INCHES WHICH CAN LEAD
TO STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING. PATCHY INLAND LATE NIGHT FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH
NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MIDWEEK WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH LOWER TEMPS
OCCURRING IN COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT AREAS AS ONSHORE FLOW
PUSHES THE EAST COAST DIURNAL SEA BREEZE FURTHER INLAND. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER INLAND AREAS
AND IN THE MID 70S FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR THE ST JOHNS
RIVER. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO BE OVER 100 FOR SOME AREAS
DURING THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY THUNDERSTORMS, ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE INLAND
- INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK POSSIBLE MID TO LATE WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND WEST
TOWARDS THE GULF, RESULTING IN A MORE WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND, WITH DIURNAL BOUTS OF CONVECTION
POTENTIALLY BECOMING LESS INTENSE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO BE OVER 100 DURING THIS
PERIOD AND A CHANCE FOR RISING TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR CLOUDS PREVAIL AT THIS TIME AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 05Z.
THERE ARE A FEW MORE LOW CLOUDS AT ABOUT 1-2 KFT THIS EVENING AND
CAN'T RULE OUT A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FOR COASTAL TAFS.
AFTER 05Z/06Z, CHANCES OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AS LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY FOR VQQ AND
GNV. THERE MAY BE SOME BETTER LOW CIG/VSBY CHANCES NOW FOR JAX FROM
ABOUT 08Z-12Z, BUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY SHOWED A SCATTERED
STRATUS DECK AND 6SM BR.
ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON
TUESDAY AND MAY APPROACH THE SGJ AND SSI COASTAL TERMINALS AND
CRG AFTER 08Z, AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WAS INSERTED THROUGH AROUND 14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS BY
14Z, ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY THEN DEVELOP TOWARDS
15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
ABOUT 16Z-19Z FOR COASTAL TAFS AND THEN AROUND 17Z-21Z FOR GNV.
THE PROB30 CONVECTIVE GROUPS USED FOR COASTAL TAFS, AND TEMPO
FOR GNV, WITH THE LATTER TAF HAVING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE
WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING REMAINING SITUATED OVER OUR NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY, MAINLY OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS INLAND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT
OUR LOCAL WATERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH PROGRESSES
WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ACROSS OUR REGION. ONSHORE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY WINDS SHIFTING TO
WESTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
RIP CURRENTS: BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH BREAKERS OF 2-3 FEET KEEPING A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN
PLACE AT ALL AREA BEACHES. A HIGH RISK IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES DUE TO THIS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW,
WITH A HIGHER END MODERATE RISK OTHERWISE FORECAST AT ALL AREA
BEACHES LATER THIS WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, FEATURING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MORNING
COASTAL SHOWERS FOLLOWING BY MORE AMPLIFIED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GENERALLY TOWARDS
HIGHWAY 301 TO I-75 AND AREAS FURTHER WEST. OUTSIDE OF RAINFALL,
DISPERSIONS WILL BE ONLY IN THE POOR TO FAIR RANGE THANKS TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. BEST DISPERSIONS AND TRANSPORT
WINDS WILL BE FOUND THE FURTHER WEST/NORTHWEST YOU GO.
FOG POTENTIAL: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINFALL. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED MORE RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 91 72 90 / 20 30 10 50
SSI 77 87 78 87 / 20 40 30 50
JAX 74 89 74 89 / 20 40 40 70
SGJ 77 87 76 87 / 30 50 40 70
GNV 74 89 73 89 / 20 80 20 90
OCF 74 89 73 89 / 30 70 20 90
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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