379
FXUS62 KJAX 011134
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
734 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALLY
DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
- DAILY AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUES THROUGH SUN. HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WED & THURS FOR NORTHEAST & NORTH CENTRAL
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES. HIGH RISK POSSIBLE
AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES LATER THIS WEEK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA
EAST TO NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH COASTAL TROUGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS INTO THE NE FL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES OR MORE
AND THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING
AS THE MAIN IMPACT, ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO
40-50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. A SLIGHT
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE GA WILL LOWER
THE RAINFALL COVERAGE SLIGHTLY THERE WITH COVERAGE MORE ON THE ORDER
OF 20-40%, WHILE 50-70% COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NE FL.
CONVECTION WILL PUSH ONSHORE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND I-95
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN TRANSLATE INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLAND NE FL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90F ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST/I-95 CORRIDOR, WITH MOSTLY LOWER 90S INLAND ALONG
WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F. ANOTHER QUICK END TO CONVECTION
AFTER SUNSET WITH A RETURN TO SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A FEW REACHING THE
COAST TOWARDS MORNING. LOW TEMPS STILL GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, WITH STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE OVER INLAND LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE APPALACHIAN REGION, AN OFFSHORE
TROUGH WILL STEADILY SHIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FL PENINSULA DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL FLOW FROM THE EAST, THEN SOUTHEAST AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS WEST. OFFSHORE SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE COASTAL LOCATIONS, THEN INLAND
LOCATIONS AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BEGINS TO PUSH ONSHORE. WITH
THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA, WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 2" ACROSS NE FL AND
MUCH OF SE GA. AS SUCH INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS, WITH 60% TO 80% CHANCES EACH DAY,
HIGHER COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY. WITH THE FAR INLAND
PROGRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE, EXPECT TO SEE INCREASED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM CENTRAL TO WESTERN
LOCATIONS OF NE FL AND SE GA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO ELEVATED MOISTURE ALOFT. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FL AND NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR ON WEDNESDAY, BY THURSDAY THE
MARGINAL RISK ENCOMPASSES ALL OF NE FL PORTIONS AND A MAJORITY OF SE
GA BY THURSDAY AS WIND FLOW SHIFTS TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S EACH AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE
ABOVE 100F FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NE FL ON WEDNESDAY AND ONCE
AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SE GA AS WELL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY THUNDERSTORMS, ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE INLAND.
THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MAKE
WAY FOR A COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFT SOUTH TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA BY
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD FRONT TO
SHIFT INTO THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY, PUSHING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL TRANSITION TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY, THEN SOUTHWESTERLY-WESTERLY BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. FRIDAY, THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS WHICH WILL
AGAIN SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR INLAND LOCATIONS
TOWARDS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. BY SATURDAY, MOSTLY SCATTERED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF NORTH CENTRAL FL.
GUIDANCE SHOWS AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY AS
THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT, DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA, LEADING TO DIMINISHING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AT THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES RISING OVER 100F COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TO BE MET.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
LIFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH 13Z, TRENDING TOWARD MVFR 1-
2.5 KFT THROUGH 14Z. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS, 10-15KTS GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS, WILL PUSH COASTAL SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS
STRATUS BREAKUP OCCURS. CONFIDENCE OF TSRA AT COASTAL AIRFIELDS
(KSSI/KCRG/KSGJ) TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
TERMINALS ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 HAVE AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF BRIEF
TSRA IMPACTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND
BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CEASE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT RETURN
ALONG THE COAST OF NE FL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS DUE TO ENHANCED
COASTAL CONVERGENCE. ELSEWHERE, LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IF MVFR CLOUD COVER SCATTERS OUT AFTER 06Z.
MARINE
WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING REMAINING SITUATED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH MID WEEK. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY WINDS SHIFTING TO WESTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
RIP CURRENTS: SOLID MODERATE RISK IN THE ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH
SURF GENERALLY IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE. SLIGHT UPTICK IN SURF INTO THE 2-
4 FT RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY MAY BRING THE NE FL BEACHES TO A
HIGH RISK, BUT OVERALL EXPECT MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK BRINGING EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS, AND THEN TOWARDS INLAND LOCATIONS
AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
AMPLIFIED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. WITH WEAKER WINDS ALOFT, DISPERSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERALLY BE IN THE POOR TO FAIR RANGE MUCH OF THE WEEK. BUT WITH
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO BE BROUGHT IN FROM THE ATLANTIC, THIS WILL
HELP MAINTAIN GOOD MIN RH VALUES ACROSS THE AREA.
FOG POTENTIAL: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINFALL. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED MORE RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 92 72 91 73 / 20 10 30 0
SSI 87 78 87 78 / 40 20 30 20
JAX 89 75 88 74 / 40 20 50 20
SGJ 87 75 87 75 / 50 30 70 20
GNV 90 73 88 73 / 60 20 70 20
OCF 90 73 89 73 / 80 30 70 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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