252
FXUS62 KJAX 020018
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
818 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCALLY DENSE
FOG POSSIBLE FOR INLAND AREAS IN NE FL
- DAILY AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH. HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WED & THURS FOR NORTHEAST & NORTH CENTRAL FL
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY. HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG I-75 AND AREAS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON
- LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
SOUTHERN FLORIDA. A BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN THOSE FEATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOWARD THE I-75
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BULK OF THIS
AFTERNOON'S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING A QUICK PACE TO THE
WEST, AROUND 15 MPH, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE
FLOODING DESPITE THE "PREMIUM-GRADE" MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER
MEASURED AT 2.34" AT KJAX THIS MORNING). INSTEAD, THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS WILL BE LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND LOW
VISIBILITY DUE VIOLENT DOWNPOURS. MOST AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
MOVE OFF TOWARD THE PANHANDLE AND THE BIG BEND BY THE EVENING HOURS.
TODAY'S ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE SEASONAL RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS AROUND 90 DEGREES, WITH THE COASTAL AREAS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S.
TONIGHT...ASIDE FROM A FEW PREDAWN SHOWERS ADVECTING OFF THE
ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NE FL COAST, CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY. A VERY
SATURATED LOW LEVEL WILL ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY WEST OF I-95. WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE
COMPLETELY, LOCALIZED FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS STRATUS SURFACES. AMID
ONSHORE WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARMER AT THE COAST TONIGHT,
UPPER 70S, WHILE INLAND AREAS COOL TOWARD THE LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, WITH STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE OVER INLAND LOCATIONS
EASTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHEST SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
CLOSER TO INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY, MAINLY AGAIN FOR INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA LOCATIONS, WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. THE ONSHORE
WINDS WILL ALSO BRING ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS ON THE COAST,
SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PWATS (ABOVE 2.0") WILL
PERSIST, POSING AN ISOLATED FLOODING RISK BOTH DAYS, THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS AREAS SOUTH OF I-10 HIGHLIGHTED FOR A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY, AND MOST OF THE AREA UNDER IT
AGAIN THURSDAY. THE ONSHORE BREEZE WILL KEEP ATLANTIC COASTAL HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH INLAND HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER
90S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY THUNDERSTORMS, ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE INLAND.
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS STEERING FLOW
SHIFTS TO SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PROMPTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. A
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEKEND, AND
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING HIGHER STORM CHANCES
EACH DAY. OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S, WARMER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY INLAND.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT EAST
TO EAST NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 5-8 KNOTS THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z, LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
MVFR VSBY AND IFR/LIFR CIGS AT JAX, VQQ, AND GNV BETWEEN 07-09Z
AS WINDS BECOME CALM WHILE STAYING VERY LIGHT AND EASTERLY ALONG
THE COAST AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CIGS 1.5-2.5
KFT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RESUME AFTER 13Z AS EAST NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE OVER INLAND AREAS TO 5-8 KNOTS.
FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY WITH
THE TROUGH SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. COASTAL SHOWERS
APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO SGJ BY 10Z AND
SHIFT TOWARDS CRG THROUGH 13Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRESS INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS TO JAX, THEN SHIFT
FURTHER INLAND TO VQQ AND GNV THROUGH 18-19Z.
HAVE PROB30 GROUPS FOR MORNING SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE TO SGJ/CRG
AND THEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL YIELDING MVFR VSBY/CIGS.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE GREATEST
OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH DIMINISHED COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA, SO ONLY HAVE VCSH AT SSI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH BY 23Z, BUT SOONER NEAR
THE COAST.
MARINE
ONSHORE FLOW AND TROUGHING OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL
FOR WAVES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS TRANSITION AND SHIFT WESTERLY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK UNDER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY'S
INFLUENCE.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH SURF IN AROUND 2-3 FT. A STRONGER LONG-PERIOD SWELL AND SURF
CLIMBING TO 3-4 FT IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE NE FL AND SE GA BEACHES WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY LOW DISPERSION OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WEDNESDAY
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK BRINGING EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS, AND THEN TOWARDS INLAND LOCATIONS
AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
AMPLIFIED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. WITH WEAKER WINDS ALOFT, DISPERSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERALLY BE IN THE POOR TO FAIR RANGE MUCH OF THE WEEK. BUT WITH
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO BE BROUGHT IN FROM THE ATLANTIC, THIS WILL
HELP MAINTAIN GOOD MIN RH VALUES ACROSS THE AREA.
FOG POTENTIAL: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINFALL. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED MORE RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 92 73 91 / 0 10 10 70
SSI 78 88 79 88 / 10 20 20 30
JAX 75 89 75 90 / 10 40 30 50
SGJ 76 87 76 88 / 20 50 40 50
GNV 73 89 73 90 / 10 70 30 90
OCF 74 89 74 91 / 10 80 40 90
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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