032
FXUS62 KJAX 021251
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
851 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY.
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE COAST
WITH MVFR VSBY AND IFR/LIFR CIGS AT JAX, VQQ, AND GNV BETWEEN
08-10Z AS WINDS BECOME CALM WHILE STAYING VERY LIGHT AND
EASTERLY ALONG THE COAST WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CIGS 1.5-2.5 KFT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RESUME AFTER 13Z AS EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE OVER INLAND AREAS TO 5-8 KNOTS. COASTAL SHOWERS
APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO SGJ BY 10Z AND
SHIFT TOWARDS CRG THROUGH 13Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRESS INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS
TO JAX, THEN SHIFT FURTHER INLAND TO VQQ AND GNV THROUGH 18-
19Z. HAVE PROB30 GROUPS FOR MORNING SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE TO
SGJ/CRG AND THEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL YIELDING MVFR
VSBY/CIGS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
GREATEST OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH DIMINISHED COVERAGE OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, SO ONLY HAVE VCSH THERE. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH BY 23Z, BUT SOONER NEAR THE COAST. VFR CONDS WILL
LINGER THROUGH SUNSET AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH A TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS PUSHING ONSHORE LATER THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS AND SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THEN WITH DIURNAL HEATING THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD INLAND WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THAT WILL TAP INTO
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS NE FL TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL, WITH BEST CHANCES OF LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR OF INLAND NE FL AS THIS ACTIVITY MEETS THE GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE, AND WHILE THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING STEADILY TO
THE WEST AT 10-15 MPH, EXPECT SOME ISOLATED 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS IN
THE MORE INTENSE STORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40-50 MPH OVER INLAND AREAS. SLIGHTLY LOWER
PWATS BELOW 2 INCHES ACROSS INLAND SE GA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
LOWER COVERAGE THERE WITH POPS OF 20-50%, WHILE POPS OF 60- 90%
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF NE FL, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. MAX TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90F ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND I-95 CORRIDOR IN THE ONSHORE FLOW AND
EARLIER START TO CONVECTION, WITH LOWER 90S INLAND, ALTHOUGH
SOME MIDDLE 90S CAN BE EXPECTED TO THE NW OF WAYCROSS OVER
INLAND SE GA WHERE LESS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. PEAK HEAT
INDICES STILL FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER IN THE 100-105F
RANGE. STORMS STILL ON TRACK TO END ACROSS INLAND AREAS AROUND
SUNSET, WHILE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP ONGOING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION REACHING THE
COAST AT TIMES LATE AT NIGHT. LOW TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES
IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, WITH STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE OVER INLAND LOCATIONS.
- HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BRING OFFSHORE
SHOWERS TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
THEN TOWARDS INLAND LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD WILL DRIVE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NE FL AND A MAJORITY OF SE GA.
ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS, ABOVE 2", WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP. CURRENTLY, CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RANGE IN THE 60% TO
80% CHANCES EACH DAY, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY. WPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR ALL OF NE FL AND A MAJORITY OF SE GA ON
THURSDAY. THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL
AGAIN BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR
CENTRAL TO WESTERN LOCATIONS OF NE FL AND SE GA EACH AFTERNOON
HOURS. EACH EVENING TO EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY INLAND FOG.
WARMER TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST AS DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
EACH AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE ABOVE
100F FOR SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE LATE MORNING, WITH PASSING
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIMITING TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY THUNDERSTORMS, ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE INLAND.
SOUTHWESTERLY-WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT DIPPING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN US . BY SATURDAY,
WITH A SHIFT TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SHIFT IN FROM WEST TO EAST. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY,
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE BROUGHT IN FROM THE GULF. THE QUESTION
REMAINS HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY SINK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US AND THUS THE FL PENINSULA. BUT REGARDLESS, STILL
EXPECT TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HEADING INTO
LABOR DAY AS THE SEA BREEZES MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH MOISTURE ALOFT REMAINING AROUND THE 2" RANGE FOR
PWATS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES RISING OVER 105F COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET, BUT TEMPERATURES MAY BE KEPT IN
CHECK WITH PASSING SHOWERS.
MARINE
ONSHORE FLOW AND TROUGHING OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL
FOR WAVES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS TRANSITION AND SHIFT WESTERLY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: SLIGHT UPTICK IN LONGER PERIOD SWELLS WILL PUSH SURF
INTO THE 3-4 FT RANGE FOR THE NE FL BEACHES AND WILL POST A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY, BUT WILL MAINTAIN
A MODERATE RISK FOR THE SE GA BEACHES WITH SURF OF 2-3 FT.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY LOW DISPERSIONS OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND
THURSDAY.
- LOW DISPERSIONS ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND.
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK BRINGING EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS, AND THEN TOWARDS INLAND
LOCATIONS AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, AMPLIFIED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WITH WEAKER WINDS ALOFT,
DISPERSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY BE IN THE POOR TO FAIR
RANGE MUCH OF THE WEEK, PARTICULARLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL, AND
COASTAL LOCATIONS BY THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM
THE ATLANTIC WILL HELP MAINTAIN GOOD MIN RH VALUES ACROSS THE
AREA.
FOG POTENTIAL: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINFALL.
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED MORE RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 94 73 90 73 / 20 10 70 0
SSI 87 78 88 78 / 30 20 60 10
JAX 89 75 89 75 / 40 30 60 10
SGJ 87 76 87 76 / 70 40 50 10
GNV 89 74 90 73 / 90 40 70 30
OCF 89 73 91 74 / 90 40 80 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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