382
FXUS62 KJAX 021803
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
203 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
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- NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10.
- FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE PREDAWN
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY, WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA.
- DAILY AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES THROUGH
THURSDAY. MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE SOUTHEAST GA
BEACHES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
10.
- FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE PREDAWN
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY, WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS ADJACENT TO EAST CENTRAL
FL NORTHEASTWARD TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO NORTHEAST
FL. THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. MEANWHILE,
HIGH PRESSURE (1021 MILLIBARS) EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE OZARKS.
OTHERWISE, TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD (1004 MILLIBARS) WAS
DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS FAR EASTERN TEXAS.
ALOFT..."HEAT WAVE" RIDGING BLANKETS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES,
WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) FEATURE
SPINNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BENEATH THIS RIDGE ALONG THE FL
PANHANDLE COAST. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RESIDES FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF WAYCROSS, GA, WHERE ABOVE 2 INCHES,
WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR
EXPERIENCING VALUES BETWEEN 2.25 AND 2.5 INCHES. A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MASS PREVAILS FROM WAYCROSS AND POINTS NORTH AND
WESTWARD, WHERE VALUES WERE GENERALLY AROUND 1.75 INCHES.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ON THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE APPROACHING INVERTED TROUGH WERE
SPIRALING WEST AND SOUTHWESTWARD FOR LOCATIONS WITHIN THE DEEPER
TROPICAL AIR MASS, WHERE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE GENERALLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN 85-90
DEGREE RANGE OUTSIDE OF RAIN COOLED LOCATIONS AS OF 18Z, WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A PALTRY CUMULUS FIELD WAS IN
PLACE ELSEWHERE ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA WITHIN THE DRIER AIR
MASS, WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE MOSTLY CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER
90S, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S CREATING HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 100-105 DEGREES AS OF 18Z.
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FL COAST TONIGHT. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ONSHORE, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10, WITH
ACTIVITY GENERALLY MOVING BRISKLY WEST OR SOUTHWESTWARD FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF WAYCROSS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL
NORTHEAST FL AS WELL AS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ST. JOHNS
RIVER BASIN AND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL THROUGH AROUND SUNSET,
BUT THE QUICK MOTION OF THESE RAIN BANDS SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS TO
NEGATE LOCALIZED FLOODING. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THESE
COASTAL BANDS OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY TAKES PLACE DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON THURSDAY, WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST
OF I-95. OTHERWISE, DECOUPLING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW
STRATUS CEILINGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MORE
SUBSIDENT AIR MASS THAT CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GA AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL TO THE MID 70S INLAND, WITH A LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE KEEPING COASTAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, WITH STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE OVER INLAND LOCATIONS.
CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ONSHORE
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH RAIN COVERAGE PUSHING INLAND
THROUGH THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNSET, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE, PRIMARILY FOR
INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA WHERE THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MEETS THE
SLOWER MOVING GULF SEA BREEZE. SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL WILL HOLD THE 'MARGINAL' RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON THURSDAY, POSING A RISK TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING THREAT, GUSTY WINDS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT, THE HIGHEST RISK
FOR STRONG STORMS WOULD BE INLAND LOCATIONS.
THE ONSHORE WINDS AND HEAVIER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP COASTAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WHEREAS INLAND AREAS WILL
SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY THUNDERSTORMS, ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE INLAND.
A PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, STEERING FLOW WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH, EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA,
INCLUDING THE COAST, WHILE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SEES MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION. SUNDAY, STORM COVERAGE INCREASES AREAWIDE AS WE SEE
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SINKING
SOUTHWARD. HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA, LEAVING LOWER CHANCES ON TUESDAY
AS THE EASTERLY FLOW RETURNS. OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DECREASED, AND WE HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE VICINITY THUNDERSTORM
MENTIONS AT THE REGIONAL TAFS AT THIS TIME. BANDS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST AND SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS, WITH SGJ MOST LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED THROUGH AROUND 22Z, WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR
CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE FOR GNV THROUGH
AROUND 22Z, WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT GNV
AFTER 19Z, SO PLEASE CHECK FOR AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WERE OTHERWISE MAINTAINED AT THE DUVAL COUNTY
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 00Z, WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE
THE PROB30 GROUP AT SSI, WHERE VICINITY SHOWERS SHOULD PREVAIL
UNTIL AROUND 00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
THROUGH AROUND 06Z, WITH VICINITY SHOWER POSSIBILITIES
CONTINUING AT THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
STRATUS CEILINGS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS AFTER 06Z, WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KNOTS
THROUGH AROUND 23Z, WITH SPEEDS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING, WITH SPEEDS REMAINING SUSTAINED AROUND 5
KNOTS AFTER 06Z THURSDAY AT THE SSI AND SGJ COASTAL TERMINALS
AND LESS THAN 5 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
THEN INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 14Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.
MARINE
A TROUGH WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PROVIDING BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WIND AND
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY WITH GRADUALLY
DECREASING SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS ONSHORE,
WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FORECAST ON THURSDAY, ALONG WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
WEAK ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD ON FRIDAY, MAINTAINING A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW THAT WILL AGAIN PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. PREVAILING WESTERLY WINDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION, WITH THIS
FEATURE MAINTAINING A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ACTIVITY PUSHES EASTWARD FROM
COASTAL LOCATIONS. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS
BOUNDARY, LIKELY PUSHING THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
WATERS. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD OUR LOCAL
WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: A LONG PERIOD EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY OCEAN SWELL WILL
COMBINE WITH BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO CREATE BREAKERS OF
3-4 FEET AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES AND 2-3 FEET AT THE
SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
YIELD A HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS AT THE NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES AND A HIGHER END MODERATE RISK FOR THE SOUTHEAST GA
BEACHES. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL GRADUALLY FADE ON THURSDAY
AND SHOULD NOT LINGER INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
CREATING ENOUGH OF AN ONSHORE BREEZE TO YIELD A LOWER END
MODERATE RISK ON FRIDAY AT AREA BEACHES. PREVAILING OFFSHORE
WINDS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD RESULT IN A LOW RISK, WHILE DEVELOPING
ONSHORE WINDS ON LABOR DAY LIKELY RESULTING IN AT LEAST A
MODERATE RISK.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY LOW DISPERSIONS OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY.
- LOW DISPERSIONS ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND.
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK BRINGING EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS, AND THEN TOWARDS INLAND
LOCATIONS AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, AMPLIFIED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WITH WEAKER WINDS ALOFT,
DISPERSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY BE IN THE POOR TO FAIR
RANGE MUCH OF THE WEEK, PARTICULARLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL, AND
COASTAL LOCATIONS BY THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM
THE ATLANTIC WILL HELP MAINTAIN GOOD MIN RH VALUES ACROSS THE
AREA.
FOG POTENTIAL: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINFALL.
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED MORE RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 90 73 91 / 10 70 0 60
SSI 78 88 78 88 / 20 60 10 40
JAX 75 89 75 90 / 30 60 10 70
SGJ 76 87 76 89 / 40 50 10 60
GNV 74 90 73 91 / 40 70 30 80
OCF 73 91 74 91 / 40 80 30 80
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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