616
FXUS62 KJAX 031135
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
735 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY. MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG INLAND NEXT FEW MORNINGS. MAIN IMPACT AREAS:
INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON & EVENING TSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL TODAY & FRI FOR NORTHEAST & NORTH CENTRAL FL. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- WAVES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA
- LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF TS DOLLY WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD UP THE FL PENINSULA
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS STEERING FLOW CURRENTLY FROM THE EAST THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH WAVES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
PUSHING ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNAL HEATING WILL HELP TO TRIGGER MORE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THE THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR MORE INTENSE STORMS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF
INLAND NE FL. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS, NEAR
90F ALONG THE I-95/US-17 CORRIDORS, AND INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER
INLAND SE GA/INLAND NE FL, WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105F
RANGE ONCE AGAIN. EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED AGAIN BOTH MORNINGS TOWARDS SUNRISE, WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS, MAINLY ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY, BUT ONCE AGAIN NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE INLAND
THOUGH A GRADUAL SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, IT WILL OVERALL HAVE LITTLE CHANGE ON THE END
RESULT FOR OUR WEATHER ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS WELL, RESULTING IN MORE OF A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FRIDAY AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY.
FRIDAY: A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE, ORIGINATING FROM PERSISTENT
TROUGHING OFFSHORE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING.
THIS, COMBINED WITH THE USUAL SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE AND JUICY PWATS
AS HIGH AS 2.3 TO 2.5 INCHES (AT LEAST THE 90TH PERCENTILE AT KJAX)
WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND T'STORMS ONCE
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH MORE OF A "LONG SKINNY CAPE" PROFILE PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STRONGLY SUGGESTING HEAVY RAIN AND THEREFORE LOCALIZED
FLOODING AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD, ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OCCURS.
THOUGH AS IS COMMON FOR LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL, CERTAINLY WONT RULE
OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH STRONGER STORMS, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. DESPITE AN ACTIVE DAY, A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT OF THE FLOW WILL ALLOW MOST AREAS TO RISE INTO THE LOW
90S, EXCEPT FOR UPPER 80S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SATURDAY & SATURDAY NIGHT: A TRANSITION PERIOD OF SORTS, AS REMNANTS
OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE LINGER AND PWATS REMAIN
ABOVE 2 INCHES WHILE FLOW SHIFTS MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE INGREDIENTS WILL THEREFORE
ALL BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DAYTIME
CONVECTION, THOUGH INSTEAD WITH A MORE GULF SEA BREEZE DOMINANT
PATTERN AND LIKELY AN EARLIER START TO DAYTIME CONVECTION. THE
MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE A FEW MORE
DEGREES ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH HELP FURTHER SUPPORT
ALREADY SUFFICIENT CAPE AND THEREFORE ISOLATED STRONG TO LOCALIZED
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE I-75
CORRIDOR. THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING OR
OVER SOUTHERN GA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
WHICH CERTAINLY COULD PERSIST SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD, ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND GA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY THUNDERSTORMS, ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE INLAND.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MAKE MODEST PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH LONGER TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE BOUNDARY SLOWS AND NEARLY STALLS EITHER OVER
NORTHEAST OR CENTRAL FL BY MONDAY. EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
MAKES IT WILL CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST,
THOUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY ACTIVE FOR
SHOWER AND T'STORM COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPS
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THEN LOOKS TO BUILD IN JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT TOWARDS MID WEEK, THOUGH AS OF NOW DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE ON THE LEVEL OF MORE COMMON FALL NORTHEASTERLY EVENTS. SOME DRIER
AIR WILL LIKELY START TO INTRUDE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GA FURTHER
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, WHICH WILL DROP RAIN CHANCES FOR SOME OF THESE
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY BEFORE
FALLING CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MONDAY - WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO 10-13G15-20
KNOTS, WITH HIGHEST WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 15Z, REACHING GNV
BY 18Z WITH MOSTLY MVFR SHRA ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED TSRA (VCTS)
CHANCES, MAINLY AT GNV, VQQ, AND SGJ. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL LOWER
AFTER 00Z AT TERMINALS, BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST VCSH
AT ALL TERMINALS IN ADDITION TO MOSTLY MVFR CIGS IN THE 1500-2500 FT
RANGE AROUND 06Z, WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT VQQ AND GNV.
MARINE
ONSHORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. PREVAILING WESTERLY
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION,
WITH THIS FEATURE MAINTAINING A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN. STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY, LIKELY PUSHING THE FRONT OVER THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: A LONG PERIOD EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY OCEAN SWELL WILL
COMBINE WITH BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO CREATE BREAKERS OF 3-4
FEET AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES AND 2-3 FEET AT THE SOUTHEAST GA
BEACHES TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP
CURRENTS AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES AND A HIGHER END MODERATE RISK
FOR THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
FADE TONIGHT AND SHOULD NOT LINGER INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE CREATING ENOUGH OF AN ONSHORE BREEZE TO YIELD A LOWER END
MODERATE RISK ON FRIDAY AT AREA BEACHES. PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS
THIS WEEKEND SHOULD RESULT IN A LOW RISK, WHILE DEVELOPING ONSHORE
WINDS ON LABOR DAY LIKELY RESULTING IN AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK.
FIRE WEATHER
AREAS OF LOW DISPERSIONS ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND..
MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP DISPERSIONS
GENERALLY IN THE POOR TO FAIR RANGE AT BEST AS FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN WEAK OVERALL. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, IN ADDITION TO A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WITH PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. FLOW DIRECTION STARTS TO SHIFT THIS WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND LIKELY
STALLS OVER THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE OF A SUMMER-LIKE DAILY SHOWER AND T'STORM
PATTERN.
FOG POTENTIAL: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINFALL. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED MORE RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 92 74 91 73 / 50 20 70 10
SSI 87 77 88 77 / 60 40 40 10
JAX 89 75 90 74 / 50 30 60 10
SGJ 87 75 89 75 / 50 30 50 20
GNV 90 74 91 73 / 80 30 80 20
OCF 90 73 91 74 / 90 50 80 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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