566
FXUS62 KJAX 031733
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
133 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY. MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON & EVENING TSTORMS EACH DAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL TODAY & FRIDAY FOR NORTHEAST & NORTH CENTRAL FL.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT URBAN LOCATIONS.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS
- HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PEAK HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 105-110 POSSIBLE
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE OFF
THE ATLANTIC, SPORADICALLY IMPACTING THE TAF SITES. OVERALL, THE
THUNDER THREAT IS LOW, WITH MORE LIKELY CHANCES OF SEEING BRIEF RAIN
SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, THERE
WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG FOR INLAND SITES, MVFR CEILINGS NEARLY AREA-
WIDE, AND COASTAL SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MARINE
ONSHORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. PREVAILING WESTERLY
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION,
WITH THIS FEATURE MAINTAINING A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN. STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY, LIKELY PUSHING THE FRONT OVER THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: A LONG PERIOD EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY OCEAN SWELL WILL
COMBINE WITH BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO CREATE BREAKERS OF 3-4
FEET AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES AND 2-3 FEET AT THE SOUTHEAST GA
BEACHES TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP
CURRENTS AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES AND A HIGHER END MODERATE RISK
FOR THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
FADE TONIGHT AND SHOULD NOT LINGER INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE CREATING ENOUGH OF AN ONSHORE BREEZE TO YIELD A LOWER END
MODERATE RISK ON FRIDAY AT AREA BEACHES. PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS
THIS WEEKEND SHOULD RESULT IN A LOW RISK, WHILE DEVELOPING ONSHORE
WINDS ON LABOR DAY LIKELY RESULTING IN AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK.
FIRE WEATHER
MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP DISPERSIONS
GENERALLY IN THE POOR TO FAIR RANGE AT BEST AS FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN WEAK OVERALL. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, IN ADDITION TO A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WITH PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. FLOW DIRECTION STARTS TO SHIFT THIS WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND LIKELY
STALLS OVER THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE OF A SUMMER-LIKE DAILY SHOWER AND T'STORM
PATTERN.
FOG POTENTIAL: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINFALL. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED MORE RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 92 74 91 73 / 40 0 70 10
SSI 87 78 88 77 / 40 20 40 10
JAX 88 75 90 74 / 40 20 60 10
SGJ 86 76 89 75 / 50 20 50 20
GNV 89 74 91 73 / 70 20 80 20
OCF 89 74 91 74 / 70 30 80 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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