658
FXUS62 KJAX 031954
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
354 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY. MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON & EVENING TSTORMS EACH DAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL TODAY & FRIDAY FOR NORTHEAST & NORTH
CENTRAL FL. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT
URBAN LOCATIONS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS
- HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PEAK HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 105-110 POSSIBLE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- WAVES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES
THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING AS WELL AS GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS
SHOW DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH PWATS NEAR 2-2.3".
TODAY IS OUR FINAL DAY OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW BEFORE A WEATHER
PATTERN SHIFT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OFF THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY FOR INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THE
PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSING A
LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT. CONDITIONS ARE NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS HEAVY CLOUD COVER LIMITS INSTABILITY,
BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS NEAR I-75 CAN'T BE RULED OUT, WITH GUSTY
WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THOSE. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
BREEZE AND MORNING SHOWERS WILL KEEP COASTAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S, WITH INLAND HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 90S.
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, THERE WILL BE A PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
RISK FOR FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS, AS WELL AS EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- STRONG STORM POTENTIAL AT INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT INLAND LOCATIONS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY AT URBAN LOCATION
- STRONG STORM POTENTIAL SHIFTS TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING
RIDGING ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON
FRIDAY, WITH ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE, A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) WILL GET STEERED SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST, WHICH WILL VEER OUR LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW FROM
SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY MORNING TO SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS FLOW WILL ADVECT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FL (PWATS OF 2.25 TO 2.5
INCHES) NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR,
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA, WITH ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY SHIFTING WELL
INLAND AFTER SUNRISE. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCALLY DENSE
FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT INLAND LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST GA
SHOULD LIFT BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS, WITH MORNING CONVECTION LIKELY
LIFTING NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER TOWARDS NOON. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES SOARING TO THE 100-108 DEGREE RANGE BY THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY CLIMB TO THE LOW AND MID 90S,
EXCEPT UPPER 80S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS, WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A MORE SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND MOVING
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY, WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS TEND TO FOCUS NEAR THE U.S. HIGHWAY
301 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
GA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY THEN POTENTIALLY
GETTING STEERED EASTWARD TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. COLLIDING MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COULD CAUSE A FEW
STORMS TO "PULSE" AND BECOME STRONG, WITH DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL
OF 40-50 MPH, ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS. WEAKENING STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLOWER STORM
MOTION, WHICH MAY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY AT URBAN AND NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS.
ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR, WITH DEBRIS CLOUD COVER THINNING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED VEERING OF OUR LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN SHOULD DEVELOP PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
ALONG THE FL BIG BEND AND NATURE COASTS, WITH THIS ACTIVITY
POTENTIALLY SHIFTING INLAND OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL, GENERALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-75. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL GENERALLY FALL TO THE LOW AND MID 70S INLAND AND THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
TROUGHING DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE "HEAT WAVE" RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A
COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS, AND THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS WILL ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD, CREATING A DEEPENING
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY TO EXPAND TO COASTAL LOCATIONS, AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL AGAIN SOAR TO THE LOW AND MID 90S, WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES POTENTIALLY APPROACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
(108 DEGREES) BEFORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ERUPTS ALONG INLAND
MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES, MAINLY DURING THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GULF SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE
DOMINANT IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, WITH A SEA BREEZE
COLLISION LIKELY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS, WHERE STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
COLLIDE AND STORMS "PULSE". STEERING FLOW MAY REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH FOR
SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF I-75, AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT URBAN AND
NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST GA BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH CONVECTION THEN MOVING OFFSHORE OF COASTAL
NORTHEAST FL EARLY IN THE EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL AND
PREDAWN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF, WITH
THIS ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY MOVING ONSHORE AND SHIFTING TOWARDS I-75
TOWARDS SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. DEBRIS CLOUD COVER WILL OTHERWISE THIN
OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND PREDAWN HOURS, WITH LOWS MOSTLY FALLING
TO THE LOW AND MID 70S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
STRONG STORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHIFTS INLAND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK
TROUGHING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, SHIFTING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST GA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW ITS
FORWARD PROGRESS AS IT NEARS THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD. TROUGHING WILL THEN SHIFT AWAY FROM OUR REGION TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING TO BEGIN TO EXPAND
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
DEEP-LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW AND TROPICAL MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP WIDESPREAD MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. SEASONABLY HOT AND
HUMID WEATHER WILL FEED THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS, ESPECIALLY
WHERE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE, WHICH SHOULD BE ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
SOAR TO THE LOW AND MID 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.
THE PRESENCE OF TROUGHING ALOFT AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
INTO OUR AREA MAY KEEP CONVECTION GOING ON SUNDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN
SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY ON LABOR DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGES DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD FOCUS STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL OVER INLAND LOCATIONS ON MONDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY
DOWNPOURS KEEPING THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IN PLACE. THIS
ONSHORE WIND REGIME AND THE SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. A TIGHTENING LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS, WHERE HIGHS MAY BE
HELD TO THE MID 80S. NIGHTTIME CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE ON MONDAY
NIGHT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10, WITH CONVECTION THEN BECOMING
MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE BY TUESDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE OFF
THE ATLANTIC, SPORADICALLY IMPACTING THE TAF SITES. OVERALL, THE
THUNDER THREAT IS LOW, WITH MORE LIKELY CHANCES OF SEEING BRIEF RAIN
SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, THERE
WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG FOR INLAND SITES, MVFR CEILINGS NEARLY AREA-
WIDE, AND COASTAL SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MARINE
ONSHORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. PREVAILING WESTERLY
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION,
WITH THIS FEATURE MAINTAINING A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN. STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY, LIKELY PUSHING THE FRONT OVER THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: A LONG PERIOD EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY OCEAN SWELL WILL
COMBINE WITH BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO CREATE BREAKERS OF 3-4
FEET AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES AND 2-3 FEET AT THE SOUTHEAST GA
BEACHES TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP
CURRENTS AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES AND A HIGHER END MODERATE RISK
FOR THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
FADE TONIGHT AND SHOULD NOT LINGER INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE CREATING ENOUGH OF AN ONSHORE BREEZE TO YIELD A LOWER END
MODERATE RISK ON FRIDAY AT AREA BEACHES. PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS
THIS WEEKEND SHOULD RESULT IN A LOW RISK, WHILE DEVELOPING ONSHORE
WINDS ON LABOR DAY LIKELY RESULTING IN AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK.
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGHOUT OUR REGION. STRONG
STORMS POTENTIAL WILL FOCUS OVER INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY STRONGER STORM
POTENTIAL SHIFTING TO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONGER
STORM POTENTIAL WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON LABOR DAY. STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY WINDS
SHIFTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY AND WESTERLY ON SUNDAY. POOR
TO FAIR DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY, WITH
POCKETS OF GOOD VALUES POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE, SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS FORECAST AREA-WIDE,
WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 105 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES.
FOG POTENTIAL: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINFALL. LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS AT INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 74 91 73 92 / 10 70 10 40
SSI 78 88 77 90 / 30 50 10 50
JAX 75 90 74 92 / 30 70 10 60
SGJ 76 89 75 91 / 20 60 20 60
GNV 74 91 73 91 / 20 70 20 60
OCF 74 91 74 91 / 30 80 20 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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