150
FXUS62 KJAX 132323
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
723 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ALL LOCAL BEACHES TODAY AND FRIDAY.
ELEVATED RISK RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK
- DAILY AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN HAZARDS: LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40-50 MPH
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG FOR SUWANNEE VALLEY/I-75 CORRIDOR MONDAY MORNING
A SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE SITUATED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO PATCHY TO AREAS FOG FORMATION DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND
I-75 CORRIDOR WHERE LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES HOT AGAIN TODAY AND UP TO 2-4 DEG ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES, WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 104 TO 108. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: (MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY OVER NE FL, AND OVER EASTERN COUNTIES
OF SE GA AND NE FL TUESDAY
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. NORTH OF
THIS TROUGH OVER SE GA, DRIER AIR WILL MOVING INTO THE REGION. WITH
THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LARGELY
LIMITED TO NE FL.
THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AS IT SINKS TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST, A SURGE OF WINDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. ELEVATED WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF SE GA AND NE FL, AND EVEN FURTHER INLAND
ACROSS NE FL, DUE TO ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY ALONG THE COAST, WHICH WILL HELP PRODUCE
CONVECTION, MAINLY OVER EASTERN COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
- DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH GREATEST CHANCE NEAR THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY, WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THE ELEVATED WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY AT THE
COAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH.
THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY, AS TROUGHING REMAINS
ALONG THE COAST. WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING, THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD
FURTHER INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.
ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND AROUND AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREDOMINANTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS. HOWEVER, AT INLAND TERMINALS, KVQQ AND KGNV, WITH
AROUND A 20-30% CHANCE OF LIFR LOW STRATUS AROUND 09-12Z MONDAY
MORNING. MONDAY, BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT GNV AND
VQQ IN THE MID-AFTERNOON, WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR THE OTHER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA SITES, AND STORMS UNLIKELY NEAR SSI.
MARINE
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WATER ON MONDAY, EXCEPT
FOR A SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON MONDAY, LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED AND LIKELY BE LIMITED TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA NEARSHORE
WATERS. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, A STRONG NORTHEAST WIND SURGE
WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS, ROUGH SEAS, AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA WATERS. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS WEAKEN AND SEAS
GRADUALLY LOWER.
RIP CURRENTS: PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS (EXCEPT FOR AN AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE) AND WEAK EASTERLY SWELLS WILL KEEP A LOW-END MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY TUESDAY,
STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SURF COMBINE TO LEAD TO
DANGEROUS SURF AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AREA BEACHES DURING
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
PATCHY TO AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
- AFTERNOONS
WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED DURING THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY,
WITH ANOTHER STRONG HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS PERIOD, WITH GREATEST CHANCES CLOSER
TO THE COAST THIS PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 74 94 73 91 / 0 10 10 30
SSI 77 92 79 88 / 20 20 30 60
JAX 75 93 75 90 / 20 30 10 70
SGJ 75 91 77 88 / 30 20 10 70
GNV 74 93 74 91 / 20 50 20 30
OCF 75 93 75 92 / 20 60 20 40
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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