043
FXUS62 KJAX 141143
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
743 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ALL LOCAL BEACHES TODAY AND FRIDAY.
ELEVATED RISK RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK
- DAILY HEAT INDEX UP TO 107 THROUGH SUNDAY
- DAILY AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN HAZARDS: LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40-50 MPH
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOUTH OF I-95 CORRIDOR, MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA
- HEAT INDEX NEAR HEAT ADVISORY TODAY
PREVAILING FLOW WILL TRANSITION INTO A MORE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN
TODAY WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO BECOME MORE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SETTLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY AND THEN ADVANCE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT, WITH THE DISSIPATING COASTAL TROUGH
BEING MOVED WESTWARD INTO THE GULF. CONVECTION WILL BE INHIBITED
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS OCCURRING OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REACH UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER INLAND AREAS AND IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR INLAND AREAS AND IN
THE UPPER 70S FOR COASTAL AREAS AND ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER. HEAT
INDEX VALUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL RISE TO OVER 105-107 FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA, HOWEVER HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO OCCUR PRIOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND ROUGH SURF LIKELY FOR AREA BEACHES
STARTING TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
- BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS BEGINS TUESDAY, CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY.
A WIND ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST. A SURGE OF NORTHEAST AND EAST
WINDS WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE REGION. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH SPEEDS UP TO 15-25 MPH AND 10-15 MPH WELL
INLAND. A WIND ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO
THE BREEZY WINDS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS EXPECTED
TUESDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE MOISTURE. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AT 50-60 PERCENT AND ABOUT 20
PERCENT FOR THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
WILL EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COAST, BUT OVERALL A DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH
PWATS DROPPING TO ABOUT 1.1 TO 1.6 INCHES.
FOR WEDNESDAY, STRONG 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS FIXED OVER
EASTERN TN, BUT RETROGRADES AS A WELL-DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVES TO THE NORTH BAHAMAS LATE WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUING THE BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE AREA WITH A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS (ABOUT 10-20
PERCENT) WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE BREEZY FLOW OFF THE WARM ATLANTIC
WATERS, BUT THUNDER CHANCES ARE SUB 15 PERCENT. FOR WIND HEADLINES,
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 1-3 DEGREES TUESDAY, BUT TREND
LOWER TO ABOUT AVERAGE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT,
A COOLING TREND IS NOTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S FOR INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA, BUT 70S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. LOWS TREND A BIT COOLER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR INLAND AREAS FROM I-10
NORTHWARD AND MOSTLY LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
- ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AND ROUGH SURF FOR AREA BEACHES WILL
CONTINUE THIS PERIOD
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/TUTT FEATURE NOTED EARLIER WILL
BE PASSING OVER THE FL PENINSULA ON THURSDAY WHILE THE STRONG MID
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS SITUATED ACROSS MID MS VALLEY TO THE TN
VALLEY. THE TUTT FEATURE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES, DUE TO
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, FROM THURSDAY ONWARD, AS THE
TUTT FEATURE SHIFTS WESTWARD, ENDING UP IN THE CENTRAL GULF BY
SATURDAY. AS THE TUTT FEATURE MOVES AWAY FOR THE WEEKEND, LOW TO MID
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EASE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND.
FOR THURSDAY, STILL BREEZY FOR COASTAL AREAS, AND GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE COASTAL ZONES AND AS WELL AS INLAND NORTHEAST FL. FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY
NUMEROUS COVERAGE FOR MOST COUNTIES WITH LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN WEAKER SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AND AT
TIMES SOUTHEAST AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TO EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND AROUND AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS AROUND
6-8KFT AS OF 12Z. VFR WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH AT KSSI AND SE GA
TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED WHILE OTHER SITES ACROSS NE FL WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
TSRA IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHRA POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 16Z.
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR +TSRA AND ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS AND
LIFR/IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
(KGNV/KOCF/KLCQ) BETWEEN 20-24Z TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY
MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND DIMINISH AFTER
00Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND WNW AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS UNTIL THE
EASTERLY SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING BRINING THE POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR TO IFR STRATOCUMULUS, GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
(ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST) AND WAVES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA WATERS TODAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SEA BREEZE WINDS DEVELOPING FROM THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
AND WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA NEARSHORE WATERS.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, A STRONG NORTHEAST WIND SURGE WILL
BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS, ROUGH SEAS, AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA WATERS. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS WEAKEN AND SEAS
GRADUALLY LOWER.
RIP CURRENTS: PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS (EXCEPTING FOR THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE) AND WEAK EASTERLY SWELLS WILL KEEP A LOW-END MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. BY TUESDAY, STRENGTHENING
NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SURF COMBINE TO LEAD TO DANGEROUS SURF
AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AREA BEACHES STARTING FOR
TUESDAY, AND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
PATCHY TO AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
- AFTERNOONS
WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST AS A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON TUESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH HIGHER WINDS BEGIN BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS WITH SPEEDS UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH, GUSTING TO 30-
35 MPH. THESE ELEVATED WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY, WITH ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING TO
THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. STRONG SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS
WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION FOR THE TUESDAY TO
THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MAINLY INLAND NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR COASTAL ZONES TUESDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY
ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST FL. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INLAND AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 94 73 91 69 / 10 0 30 0
SSI 92 79 88 76 / 10 0 50 10
JAX 92 75 90 73 / 30 0 50 20
SGJ 90 77 88 76 / 20 20 60 40
GNV 93 73 91 73 / 50 20 50 0
OCF 93 74 92 74 / 70 20 60 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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