222
FXUS62 KJAX 150032
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
832 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING FOR INLAND NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
- A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND ROUGH SURF LIKELY FOR AREA
BEACHES STARTING TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
- BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS BEGINS TUESDAY, CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING FOR INLAND NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
CONVECTION WILL FADE AND SHIFT SOUTHWEST WITH SOME LIGHT TRAILING
STRATIFORM IN ITS WAKE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING, WHICH
WILL ALSO FADE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY A QUIET NIGHT WILL
FOLLOW THE CONVECTIVE CESSATION BUT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE DOWN THE
GA COAST AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW. TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR
REGARDING LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW/MID 70S AND UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.
SHORT TERM / TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND ROUGH SURF LIKELY FOR AREA BEACHES
STARTING TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
- BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS BEGINS TUESDAY, CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER
WILL SEE FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH, OCCASIONAL GUSTS CLOSER TO
40MPH BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL BRING MORNING
SHOWERS ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST, SPREADING INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO INLAND
GEORGIA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY (PWATS 1-
1.5"), KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES VERY LOW, ONLY AROUND 15-20%
NEAR THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE 'COOLER' NEAR
THE COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, LOWER 90S FURTHER INLAND.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AND ROUGH SURF FOR AREA BEACHES WILL
CONTINUE THIS PERIOD.
QUITE THE SPREAD IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS DRY AIR LAYS ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, AND
ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND INLAND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THE BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS DO EASE SLIGHTLY ON
THURSDAY, BUT WE WILL STILL SEE HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE BEACHES.
MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS AGAIN WILL MOVE ONTO THE
COAST AND SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT NEAR THE COAST. HIGH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
THE AREA AND ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE GNV TERMINAL BY 01Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z TUESDAY.
FOG AND LOW STRATUS CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
INLAND NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL OVERNIGHT, WITH CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO PREDICT LIFR CONDITIONS AT VQQ BEFORE 07Z AND
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS 09Z AT GNV. A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE 12Z AT JAX AND CRG, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INDICATE IN THE 00Z TAFS AT THIS TIME.
A SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD SSI, THE
DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS, AND SGJ AFTER 12Z, WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AFTER 14Z AT SSI AND THEN
SPREADING SOUTHWARD BY 18Z, WITH FREQUENT 20-30 KNOT GUSTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CEILINGS WILL ALSO LOWER IN
CONCERT WITH THIS WIND SURGE, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER
15Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL, WITH CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND INTENSITY TO LOW FOR ANYTHING ELSE THAN A PROB30
GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AT THIS
TIME, MAINLY AFTER 17Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, EXCEPT
AT GNV, WHERE ONLY VICINITY SHOWERS WERE FORECAST.
MARINE
A STRONG NORTHEAST WIND SURGE WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS, ROUGH SEAS, AND WAVES
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE AREA WATERS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY MORNING. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS WEAKEN AND
SEAS GRADUALLY LOWER.
RIP CURRENTS: STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SURF
COMBINE TO LEAD TO DANGEROUS SURF AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
AREA BEACHES DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
-PATCHY TO AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST AS A BACKDOOR
COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. MUCH HIGHER WINDS BEGIN
BY MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS WITH SPEEDS UP TO 15 TO
20 MPH, GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH. THESE ELEVATED WINDS REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY AT
THE COAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN
FRIDAY, WITH ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. STRONG SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS
OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION FOR THE TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME
FRAME.
FOG POTENTIAL... SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING INLAND AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 91 69 89 / 0 20 0 0
SSI 79 87 77 86 / 0 40 10 20
JAX 75 88 75 88 / 0 60 30 10
SGJ 77 87 77 86 / 10 60 50 20
GNV 74 90 74 89 / 10 50 20 0
OCF 75 91 75 90 / 30 60 10 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ452-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ454-474.
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