474
FXUS62 KJAX 151136
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
736 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ALL LOCAL BEACHES TODAY AND FRIDAY.
ELEVATED RISK RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK
- DAILY HEAT INDEX UP TO 107 THROUGH SUNDAY
- DAILY AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN HAZARDS: LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING & GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40-50 MPH
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- GUSTY WINDS TODAY FROM OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
BREEZY ONSHORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BUILD IN FROM OUT OF THE
ATLANTIC AND PRESS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OF
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING IN FROM OUT OF THE NORTH TIGHTENS,
RESULTING IN FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF ABOUT 30 MPH IN ADDITION TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION FROM OUT OF THE EAST,
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENTS OCCURRING OVER COASTAL AREAS AND
SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY WITH REDUCED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EARLY MORNING FOG
DEVELOPMENTS OVER INLAND AREAS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BEFORE
MIDMORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH UP INTO THE
LOWER 90S OVER INLAND AREAS AND IN THE UPPER 80S FOR COASTAL
COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE THE
LOWER TO MID 70S FOR INLAND AREAS AND IN THE UPPER 70S FOR COASTAL
AREAS AND ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER. HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RISE TO 105 FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA,
REMAINING BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND ROUGH SURF AT AREA BEACHES.
- BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE FOR
THE COASTAL AREAS ON WEDNESDAY.
AN ATYPICAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE
TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE TN VALLEY AREA
MAY BE RECORD SETTING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT ABOUT 5990M. FURTHER
EAST, A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE BAHAMAS
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL
RETROGRADE ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG
THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO PLAY A ROLE IN MAINTAINING GUSTY
NORTHEAST FLOW FOR THE AREA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS
NOTED IN PRIOR FORECASTS, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF BELOW
1.4 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS WITH MEAN LAYER 1000-500 MB NORTHEAST FLOW
NOTED IN GUIDANCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW PRECIP CHANCES AT ABOUT
15-25 PERCENT FOR THE FORECAST AREA. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL LOCATIONS BUT GIVEN THE WINDS ALOFT MAY
MOVE ALL THE WAY TO THE 301 CORRIDOR. FOR WINDS, SUSTAINED NORTHEAST
WINDS OF ABOUT 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE COAST. A WIND ADVISORY CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR GUSTS OF NEAR 40
MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AS THE DRY AIR
PERSISTS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SLOWLY DECREASE, BUT STILL REMAIN
BREEZY FOR THE COAST AT 15-20 MPH AND GUSTY. LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, BUT REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID
70S AT THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE
ASHORE OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
FOR THURSDAY, THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY
THE ANOMALOUS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TN VALLEY AND THE
APPROACH OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
WORK THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
BIT MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TO THE AREA AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED, BUT WE STILL SEE BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES AT 30-40 PERCENT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS
AND LOWER CHANCES AT 10-20 PERCENT INLAND NORTHEAST FL. IT LOOKS
LIKE INLAND SOUTHEAST GA REMAINS DRY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AT 20-30
PERCENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
MODERATED ONSHORE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WON'T BE AS WARM AS PRIOR DAYS WITH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S COAST AND LOWER 90S FURTHER INLAND. LOWS FORECAST IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND LOWER TO MID 70S
ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE
- ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AND ROUGH SURF FOR AREA BEACHES WILL
CONTINUE THIS PERIOD
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
WILL ALSO BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING WITH IT A MORE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WITH
A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS FOR FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST FL, WITH THE DRIER AIR
STILL LINGERING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GA WHERE ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED.
FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING LIGHT
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE FORECAST IN
CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT WITH PWATS OF ABOUT 2 INCHES, WE ARE
ADVERTISING DIURNALLY DRIVEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS
HELPED BY THE SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. POPS ARE FORECAST
UP TO THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE, WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE FOR INLAND NORTHEAST FL.
OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
PATCHY FOG WILL CLEAR BY 13Z. GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL SITES TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF ABOUT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE WITH
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. DAYTIME
CONVECTION WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST AND EXTEND INLAND, WITH A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SSI AND
SGJ, WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST
FLORIDA.
MARINE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND SEAS WILL BUILD ACROSS AREA
WATERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS, ROUGH SEAS, AND WAVES OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE NEAR
GALE FORCE LATER TODAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS WEAKEN AND SEAS
GRADUALLY LOWER.
RIP CURRENTS: STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SURF
COMBINE TO LEAD TO DANGEROUS SURF AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR
AREA BEACHES DURING THE MORNING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
PATCHY TO AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
- AFTERNOONS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST AS A BACKDOOR COOL
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. MUCH HIGHER WINDS BEGIN BY MIDDAY TODAY
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS WITH SPEEDS UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH, GUSTING TO 30-
35 MPH. THESE ELEVATED WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY, AND ONLY ISOLATED,
AT BEST, ON WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY, WITH ANOTHER
HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. STRONG SURFACE AND
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION FOR
THE TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
INLAND AREAS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WE ARE A FEW DAYS PAST THE NEW MOON PHASE, AND TIDAL WATER
LEVELS ARE STILL ELEVATED TO ABOUT 0.5 TO 0.8 FT MHHW. DESPITE
THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WE ARE
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COASTAL FLOODING
CONCERNS, WITH WATER LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SHY OF 1 FOOT
MHHW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS WE GET MORE WATER PILING UP AND
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, PEAK WATER LEVELS MAY BE AROUND 1 FOOT
OR A LITTLE HIGHER BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND SO STILL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THESE HIGHER LEVELS MAY BE WITHIN THE ST JOHNS
RIVER BASIN AND WILL BE MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT OBSERVATIONS AND
FORECASTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 91 69 89 67 / 20 10 0 0
SSI 87 75 86 75 / 50 20 20 10
JAX 88 75 88 72 / 50 40 20 10
SGJ 87 77 86 75 / 70 50 30 20
GNV 89 73 89 71 / 50 10 10 0
OCF 90 74 90 72 / 50 10 10 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ452-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ454-474.
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