658
FXUS62 KJAX 151823
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
223 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
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- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK & ROUGH SURF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS OVERSPREAD COASTAL LOCATIONS TODAY. WIND
GUSTS AT AREA BEACHES LIKELY TO BE AROUND 35 MPH TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH WIND ADVISORIES POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS.
- WAVES OF SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY,
MAINLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TODAY
- GUSTY WINDS TODAY FROM OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE
AND TOWARDS INLAND LOCATIONS, MOSTLY OVER NE FL, THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS MORNING 18Z
SOUNDING REPORTED PWATS OF 2.63", WHICH COULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS TODAY. CURRENT WIND OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE
COAST ARE STEADILY INCREASING, WITH SUSTAIN WINDS OF AROUND 15
MPH AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH TO 30 MPH, POSSIBLY 35 MPH. THE
GUSTY CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO WARM FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
COASTAL SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. FOG DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
LOW OVERALL DUE TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND ROUGH SURF AT AREA BEACHES.
- BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE FOR
THE COASTAL AREAS ON WEDNESDAY.
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST, BRINGING BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. GUSTS NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER
WILL APPROACH 30-35 MPH, WITH INFREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
THESE ONSHORE WINDS WILL BRING MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
ON THE COAST, SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY, PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS MUCH DRIER AIR (PWATS NEAR 1-1.5") SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA. OVERALL,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE AROUND 15-30% ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST
WEDNESDAY, AND LIMITED TO SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE THURSDAY.
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS LIKELY
AT THE AREA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
'COOLER' MID-WEEK, GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE
- ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AND ROUGH SURF FOR AREA BEACHES WILL
CONTINUE THIS PERIOD
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL ALSO BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING WITH IT A MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
EASTERLY WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS FOR FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH THE DRIER AIR STILL LINGERING
OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING LIGHT
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE FORECAST IN
CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT WITH PWATS OF ABOUT 2 INCHES, WE ARE
ADVERTISING DIURNALLY DRIVEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS
HELPED BY THE SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES SATURDAY.
OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO PUSH INLAND FROM THE
COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS PUSHING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. SHOWERS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST AND
I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AROUND
13Z/14Z.
MARINE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS SEAS BUILD ACROSS
AREA WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AS
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS, ROUGH SEAS, AND WAVES OF SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE NEAR GALE
FORCE TODAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS WEAKEN AND SEAS GRADUALLY LOWER.
RIP CURRENTS: STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SURF
COMBINE TO LEAD TO DANGEROUS SURF AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR
AREA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOONS
ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 30-35MPH
ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY AT THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. STRONG
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME
DISPERSION FOR THE TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL... NO SIGNIFICANT FOG EXPECTED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WE ARE A FEW DAYS PAST THE NEW MOON PHASE, AND TIDAL WATER
LEVELS ARE STILL ELEVATED TO ABOUT 0.5 TO 0.8 FT MHHW. DESPITE
THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WE ARE
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COASTAL FLOODING
CONCERNS, WITH WATER LEVELS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SHY OF 1 FOOT
MHHW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS WE GET MORE WATER PILING UP AND
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, PEAK WATER LEVELS MAY BE AROUND 1 FOOT
OR A LITTLE HIGHER BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND SO STILL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. THESE HIGHER LEVELS MAY BE WITHIN THE ST JOHNS
RIVER BASIN AND WILL BE MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT OBSERVATIONS AND
FORECASTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 91 70 90 68 / 30 10 0 0
SSI 89 78 86 77 / 40 20 10 10
JAX 90 75 87 73 / 50 40 10 10
SGJ 88 77 87 76 / 60 50 30 20
GNV 91 74 90 72 / 50 0 0 10
OCF 92 75 90 72 / 50 10 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-
166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ452-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ454-474.
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