532
FXUS62 KJAX 152344
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
744 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS & ROUGH SURF TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS OVERSPREAD COASTAL LOCATIONS.
WIND GUSTS AT AREA BEACHES AROUND 35 MPH TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH WIND
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE. WAVES OF SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS TODAY,
THURSDAY & FRIDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TODAY
- GUSTY WINDS TODAY FROM OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE
AND TOWARDS INLAND LOCATIONS, MOSTLY OVER NE FL, THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS AFTERNOON'S 18Z
SOUNDING REPORTED PWATS OF 2.63", WHICH COULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS TODAY. CURRENT WIND OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST ARE
STEADILY INCREASING, WITH SUSTAIN WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH AND WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH TO 30 MPH, POSSIBLY 35 MPH. THE GUSTY
CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING TOO WARM FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
COASTAL SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. FOG DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
LOW OVERALL DUE TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND ROUGH SURF AT AREA BEACHES.
- BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE FOR
THE COASTAL AREAS ON WEDNESDAY.
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST, BRINGING BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. GUSTS NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER
WILL APPROACH 30-35 MPH, WITH INFREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
THESE ONSHORE WINDS WILL BRING MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
ON THE COAST, SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY, PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS MUCH DRIER AIR (PWATS NEAR 1-1.5") SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA. OVERALL,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE AROUND 15-30% ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST
WEDNESDAY, AND LIMITED TO SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE THURSDAY.
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS LIKELY
AT THE AREA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
'COOLER' MID-WEEK, GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE
- ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AND ROUGH SURF FOR AREA BEACHES WILL
CONTINUE THIS PERIOD
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL ALSO BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING WITH IT A MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
EASTERLY WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS FOR FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH THE DRIER AIR STILL LINGERING
OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING LIGHT
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE FORECAST IN
CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT WITH PWATS OF ABOUT 2 INCHES, WE ARE
ADVERTISING DIURNALLY DRIVEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS
HELPED BY THE SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES SATURDAY.
OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
A FEW MORE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE
EVENING AND MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO
ADD SPECIFIC TEMPOS FOR HEAVY SHOWERS, SO WILL HANDLE WITH
AMENDMENTS. BEST CHANCE FOR PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING WILL
BE ACROSS NE FL, ESPECIALLY THE JACKSONVILLE METRO SITES. GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SPORADIC THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
GUSTS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE
RETURNING AROUND 14Z, FAVORING THE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. DRIER
AIR WILL ZERO OUT RAIN CHANCES AND LIMIT AFTERNOON CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT.
MARINE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS SEAS BUILD ACROSS
AREA WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AS
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS, ROUGH SEAS, AND WAVES OF SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE NEAR GALE
FORCE TODAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS WEAKEN AND SEAS GRADUALLY LOWER.
RIP CURRENTS: STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SURF
COMBINE TO LEAD TO DANGEROUS SURF AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR
AREA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 30-35MPH
ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY AT THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. STRONG
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME
DISPERSION FOR THE TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL... NO SIGNIFICANT FOG EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 70 90 68 90 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 78 86 77 86 / 20 10 10 0
JAX 75 87 73 87 / 40 10 10 0
SGJ 77 87 76 86 / 50 30 20 10
GNV 74 90 72 89 / 0 0 10 0
OCF 75 90 72 89 / 10 0 10 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-
166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ450-452-
454-470-472-474.
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