250
FXUS62 KJAX 160542
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
142 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS & ROUGH SURF TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL LOCATIONS. WIND GUSTS
AT AREA BEACHES AROUND 35 MPH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH WIND ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE. WAVES OF SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, THURSDAY &
FRIDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS TODAY, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
- DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL FL WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING OVER
SOUTH FL BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD MAINTAINING LOCAL
BREEZY ENE FLOW. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST IN THE
30-35 MPH RANGE. MOIST AIRMASS QUICKLY GETS REPLACED BY DRIER AIR
(PWATS ~ 1 IN.) FILTERING IN FROM THE NE. DRIER AIR AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL SQUASH CONVECTION ON LAND TODAY. HOWEVER, WAVES OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
A FEW SHIFTING ONSHORE BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. AN EAST-WEST
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW WITH HIGHS
RANGING IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S INLAND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 60S IN INLAND
SE GA.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS OVER THE AREA BEACHES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
- BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY, TRENDING
DOWN FOR FRIDAY.
FOR THURSDAY, STRONG 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. GUSTS OF
ABOUT 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED GUST OF 40 MPH, WHICH WOULD BE MORE PROBABLE IN A
SHOWER. AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE WILL WORK TOWARD THE AREA
FROM THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT. ALOFT, STRONG RIDGE IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL BE OVER THE TN VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY CLOSE
TO 600DAM, WHILE A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN EMBEDDED
500 MB LOW IS LOCATED FROM THE FL STRAITS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC. THESE FEATURES ALOFT WILL RETROGRADE THROUGH
FRIDAY. WHILE THE AIRMASS REMAINS PRETTY DRY, ESPECIALLY ABOVE
8-10 KFT, THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST AND
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE
SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE NOTED ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES AND THE
MARINE WATERS, WHILE WELL INLAND HAVE NEAR ZERO RAIN CHANCES.
SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY, THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND 500 MB LOW FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING WEST THROUGH THE MARINE WATERS AND THE LAND ZONES,
AND THEN PROBABLY INTO THE FAR EASTERN GULF BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. WEAK SFC RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC. MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WITH A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED, AND LEADING TO LESS BREEZY
WINDS. A MUCH WEAKER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND INCREASING
MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SO LOOKS LIKE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
WILL ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
NORTHEAST FL. HIGHEST CHANCES PROBABLY GOING TO BE AT THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. ONLY ABOUT 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA. GOING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT
PRIMARILY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE FORECAST. ON THURSDAY, MAX TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE MID 80S COAST TO NEAR 90 DEG, AND THEN MAX TEMPS
TREND UP 1-2 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S, BUT THE MID 70S COAST DUE EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
- ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AND ROUGH SURF FOR AREA BEACHES IS
LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE WEEKEND
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED 500 MB LOW WILL BE NEAR
THE FL WEST COAST SATURDAY MORNING, AND SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD.
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE GFS
MOVING IT FASTER WEST THAN THE ECMWF, WHICH THROWS SOME UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WEAK, BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. MEAN
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EASTERLY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A MORE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST, AND LOWERING TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT FOR
SOUTHEAST GA WHERE DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED. MORE VEERED FLOW
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MOISTURE WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE PUMPED
INTO THE AREA FROM THE PREVAILING DEEP LAYER SOUTHEAST FLOW. FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY ONWARD: HIGH AIRMASS
MOISTURE IS FORECAST IN CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT WITH PWATS OF ABOUT
2 INCHES. DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM EAST AND
SOUTHEAST, TO SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE
MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LEAD TO DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN SCATTERED AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS EACH
DAY, AND FOSTERED PARTLY BY SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. IF THE
REMNANTS OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF ENDS
UP STALLING AND DRIFTS NORTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND, THEN WE MAY BE
LOOKING AT A BETTER CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR JAX, CRG AND SSI BETWEEN
06-10Z. BREEZY ENE WINDS CONTINUE FOR COASTAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. BREEZY
WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE
FOR COASTAL TAF SITES WHERE GUSTS COULD RISE TO 30 KTS BETWEEN
18- 22Z. DRIER AIR WILL ZERO OUT RAIN CHANCES AND LIMIT AFTERNOON
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. ROUNDS OF COASTAL SHOWERS MAY SHIFT ONSHORE
LATER IN THE PERIOD BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.
MARINE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN THE WAKE OF A COOL FRONT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AND ELEVATED
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WAVES OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS WEAKEN AND SEAS GRADUALLY LOWER.
RIP CURRENTS: CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SURF
COMBINE TO LEAD TO DANGEROUS SURF AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR
AREA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY
ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, MAINLY AT THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. STRONG SURFACE AND
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION TODAY
AND THURSDAY, AND MAY STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED ON FRIDAY.
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG EXPECTED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
PEAK WATER LEVELS HAVE RISEN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH SINCE 24 HOURS
AGO. BUT DESPITE THE STRENGTHENED ONSHORE FLOW RECENTLY, WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, AS WE
REALIZE THE REVERSE FLOW WITHIN THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN, WE WILL
PROBABLY SEE RISES IN THE PEAK WATER LEVELS OF 1+ FT MHHW FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE LEVELS SHOULD STILL BE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, WHICH IS TYPICALLY AROUND 1.5 FT MHHW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 90 68 90 67 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 86 77 86 76 / 10 10 0 0
JAX 87 73 87 72 / 10 10 0 0
SGJ 87 76 86 75 / 30 20 10 10
GNV 90 72 89 70 / 0 10 0 0
OCF 90 72 89 71 / 0 10 20 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-
166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ450-452-
454-470-472-474.
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