143
FXUS62 KJAX 161746
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
146 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS & ROUGH SURF THROUGH THURSDAY.
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS OVERSPREAD COASTAL LOCATIONS, WITH WIND
GUSTS AT AREA BEACHES AROUND 35 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- LIGHT SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM, FROM THE COAST
TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
- DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS, AND REACH AREAS NEAR THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE MORE LIMITED TO OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S OVER INLAND SE GA TO THE
MID 70S ALONG THE COAST OF SE GA AND NE FL.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS OVER THE AREA BEACHES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
- BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY, TRENDING DOWN
FOR FRIDAY.
THE COASTAL TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE
FL PENINSULA ON THURSDAY, BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ON FRIDAY AS IT
PUSHES ACROSS FL INTO THE EASTERN GULF.
NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD, BECOMING MORE EASTERLY BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. WITH THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE FL
COAST, THE ELEVATED WINDS FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BEGIN TO
LESSEN ON THURSDAY, BUT WILL STILL LIKELY HAVE WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15
MPH ALONG THE COAST, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. DRIER AIR
FILTERING ACROSS THE AREA, WILL KEEP CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON THE
LOWER SIDE FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS BEING THE
EXCEPTION AS ISOLATED CHANCES WILL REMAIN DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES REMAIN FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS, PRIMARILY OVER NORTHEAST FL AS OVERALL WIND SPEEDS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND STEADILY SHIFT TO BECOME EASTERLY BY SATURDAY
MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY COOLER ALONG THE COAST
DUE TO THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW, BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S, WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WILL BE FELT OVER
INLAND LOCATIONS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE
- ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AND ROUGH SURF FOR AREA BEACHES IS
LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE WEEKEND
AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS FURTHER TOWARDS THE GULF, MOIST AIR FROM
THE ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE WEEKEND. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE
HIGHER RISK OF RIP CURRENTS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY THE UPCOMING WEEK THE OVERALL FLOW WILL VEER
TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY-SOUTHERLY BY MIDWEEK. HIGHER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT THE START OF THE NEW WEEK
AS MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED ALOFT.
OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS COULD CAUSE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SO,
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
ELEVATED AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AWAY FROM THE COAST AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MID MORNING ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN THE WAKE OF A COOL FRONT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AND ELEVATED
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WAVES OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS WEAKEN AND SEAS GRADUALLY LOWER.
RIP CURRENTS: CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SURF
COMBINE TO LEAD TO DANGEROUS SURF AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR
AREA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS THURSDAY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
THE ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING TO LESSEN THIS EVENING AND ON
THURSDAY. ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHER DISPERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH ONLY SQUATTERED CHANCES
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN WITH THE DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN, MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE 30%
MARK, WITH LOCATIONS IN FAR INTERIOR SE GA HOVERING IN THE UPPER 30%
RANGE.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 68 90 67 92 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 77 86 76 88 / 10 10 0 0
JAX 73 88 72 89 / 10 10 10 10
SGJ 76 86 76 87 / 20 10 10 20
GNV 71 89 70 90 / 0 0 0 10
OCF 72 90 71 90 / 0 0 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-
166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ452-454-
472-474.
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