794
FXUS62 KJAX 170910 CCA
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
510 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS & ROUGH SURF TODAY. BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS CONTINUE TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS
MORNING.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY & FRIDAY, MAINLY ALONG & EAST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. A THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
- ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS:
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
- DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD MAINTAINING
THE BREEZY NE FLOW TODAY. DRIER AIR (PWATS ~1 IN) OVER THE AREA
TODAY WILL ERODE AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNS FROM THE ENE
INCREASING PWATS TO 1.4-1.7 IN. LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WAVES OF LIGHT COASTAL SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NE FLOW WITH A
FEW SHIFTING ONSHORE THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATING. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
FURTHER INLAND. SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
INLAND TO THE 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS INLAND SE GA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
BEACHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY
FOR NORTHEAST FL, INCREASING TO SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS
COVERAGE SATURDAY.
ON FRIDAY: A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE FL PENINSULA, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. A COUPLE OF OTHER WEAK
SFC TROUGHS WILL BE OVER THE AREA, ONE NEAR THE BEACHES EARLY IN
THE DAY AND ANOTHER ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GA. OTHERWISE,
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER PARTS OF GA AND SC.
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASING OFF A BIT, IT WON'T BE AS BREEZY
AS WED OR THU BUT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN. WITH SOME
RISING MOISTURE FOR THE AREA, MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
WITH DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS FOR NORTHEAST FL. THERE IS MORE LIMITED MOISTURE IN
SOUTHEAST GA AND THUS ONLY SUPPORTING A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK UPWARD LIFT,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD,
SUPPORT GENERALLY WEAK ISOLATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT AROUND 70 OR LOWER 70S.
SATURDAY: SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND PIVOTS TO THE NORTHEAST
AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING MOVES EAST TO WEST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA GETS
PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN GULF. LESS SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AS A MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW MORE STORMS. FOR NOW,
LOOKING LIKE ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM FOR SOUTHEAST GA, BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR NORTHEAST FL. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S, WARMEST FROM SUWANNEE VALLEY NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST
GA.
SATURDAY NIGHT, A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A WEAK LOW
FORMING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS IS FORECAST. NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS
SOMEWHAT MUTED PRECIP CHANCES, BUT WILL PROBABLY BOOST THE
FORECAST ABOUT 10-15 PERCENT GIVEN NEW GUIDANCE SHOWING CHANCE
POPS (~30-50 PERCENT). SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR
THE COASTAL AREAS DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHARPENING TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE
- ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AND ROUGH SURF FOR AREA BEACHES FOR
SUNDAY
THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW DRIFTS FURTHER WEST INTO THE GULF ON
SUNDAY WHILE SFC TROUGHING ALONG OUR COASTAL AREAS OPEN UP A BIT
DURING THE DAYTIME. DEEP LAYER FLOW IS EAST TO SOUTHEAST, AND
WE WILL HAVE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH PWATS CLOSE TO 2
INCHES. SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LOCALLY RAINFALL
AT TIMES.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MID-LEVEL LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF ENDS
UP WEAKENING AND FILLING WHILE JUST BROAD SFC TROUGHING ORIENTED
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST REMAINS OVER NORTHEASTERN FL. SUFFICIENTLY
HIGH MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD AID IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF
WARM HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. MEAN FLOW MAY
BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS PUSHING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PASS BY THE NE FL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT
HOUR BEFORE DISSIPATING. SHOWERS COULD CAUSE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
INLAND WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5 KTS OR LESS. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY
FOR THE COASTAL TAF SITES WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KTS. NE WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 14Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10-15 KT AND GUSTS 20-
25 KT. A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS MAY PASS NEAR THE TAF SITES LATER TODAY
BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DECREASE TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION TODAY. ROUNDS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
WATERS TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF WILL BRING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AND ELEVATED SURF
COMBINE TO LEAD TO DANGEROUS SURF AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR
AREA BEACHES TODAY. ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LEADING TO
MODERATE RISK FOR SE GA BEACHES ON FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUING TODAY BUT LESSENING ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER DAY OF
HIGHER DISPERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO
THE REGION WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK, WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW. EVEN WITH THE DRIER AIR FILTERING IN, MIN RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR THE 40% MARK, BUT LOCATIONS IN FAR
INTERIOR SE GA HOVER IN THE NEAR MID TO UPPER 30 PERCENT RANGE BOTH
TODAY AND FRIDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG EXPECTED. HOWEVER, PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR INLAND AREAS EARLY IN THE MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
COASTAL WATER LEVELS CONTINUE THE TREND UPWARDS IN THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH PEAK VALUES OF ABOUT 1 TO 1.2 FT MHHW WITHIN THE ST
JOHNS RIVER BASIN (REVERSE FLOW). DESPITE BETWEEN THE NEW AND
FULL MOON PHASES, WE WILL STILL BE NEAR OR JUST SHY OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS, BUT IN VERY LIMITED AREAS. THESE
AREAS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE DOWNTOWN JAX AREA, WHERE PLACES LIKE
SATSUMA AND HASTINGS MAY REACH BETWEEN 1.2 AND 1.4 FT MHHW
THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE ARE STILL BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS,
WHICH IS TYPICALLY AROUND 1.5 FT MHHW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 90 67 92 70 / 10 10 10 0
SSI 87 75 88 76 / 20 10 10 0
JAX 87 72 89 72 / 10 10 20 0
SGJ 86 75 87 75 / 20 10 30 20
GNV 90 71 90 70 / 10 10 20 0
OCF 89 71 90 71 / 10 10 20 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ452-
454-472-474.
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