206
FXUS62 KJAX 171122
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
722 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS & ROUGH SURF TODAY. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS TODAY & FRIDAY, MAINLY ALONG & EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR
- ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
- DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD MAINTAINING
THE BREEZY NE FLOW TODAY. DRIER AIR (PWATS ~1 IN) OVER THE AREA
TODAY WILL ERODE AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNS FROM THE ENE
INCREASING PWATS TO 1.4-1.7 IN. LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WAVES OF LIGHT COASTAL SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NE FLOW WITH A
FEW SHIFTING ONSHORE THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATING. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
FURTHER INLAND. SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
INLAND TO THE 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS INLAND SE GA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
BEACHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED FRIDAY FOR NORTHEAST FL,
INCREASING TO SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SATURDAY
ON FRIDAY: A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE FL PENINSULA, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. A COUPLE OF OTHER WEAK SFC TROUGHS
WILL BE OVER THE AREA, ONE NEAR THE BEACHES EARLY IN THE DAY AND
ANOTHER ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GA. OTHERWISE, WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER PARTS OF GA AND SC. WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT EASING OFF A BIT, IT WON'T BE AS BREEZY AS WED OR THU BUT
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN. WITH SOME RISING MOISTURE FOR
THE AREA, MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FOR NORTHEAST FL.
THERE IS MORE LIMITED MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST GA AND THUS ONLY
SUPPORTING A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT,
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK UPWARD LIFT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, SUPPORT GENERALLY WEAK ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY
ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AROUND 70 OR LOWER 70S.
SATURDAY: SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND PIVOTS TO THE NORTHEAST AS
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING MOVES EAST TO WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA GETS PUSHED INTO
THE EASTERN GULF. LESS SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AS A MORE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL LEAD TO GREATER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW MORE STORMS. FOR NOW, LOOKING LIKE ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM FOR SOUTHEAST GA, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
NORTHEAST FL. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS EXPECTED
AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WARMEST FROM SUWANNEE VALLEY
NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST GA.
SATURDAY NIGHT, A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A WEAK LOW
FORMING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS IS FORECAST. NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS
SOMEWHAT MUTED PRECIP CHANCES, BUT WILL PROBABLY BOOST THE FORECAST
ABOUT 10-15 PERCENT GIVEN NEW GUIDANCE SHOWING CHANCE POPS (~30-50
PERCENT). SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL AREAS
DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHARPENING
TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE
- ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AND ROUGH SURF FOR AREA BEACHES FOR
SUNDAY
THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW DRIFTS FURTHER WEST INTO THE GULF ON SUNDAY
WHILE SFC TROUGHING ALONG OUR COASTAL AREAS OPEN UP A BIT DURING THE
DAYTIME. DEEP LAYER FLOW IS EAST TO SOUTHEAST, AND WE WILL HAVE A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. SEEMS
REASONABLE TO EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING
THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LOCALLY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MID-LEVEL LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF ENDS UP
WEAKENING AND FILLING WHILE JUST BROAD SFC TROUGHING ORIENTED FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST REMAINS OVER NORTHEASTERN FL. SUFFICIENTLY
HIGH MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD AID IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY GIVEN THE
CONTINUATION OF WARM HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. MEAN
FLOW MAY BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS PUSHING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL COME ASHORE AT TIMES TODAY, BUT THE
CHANCE IS LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN THESE
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
PERIOD.
MARINE
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DECREASE TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION TODAY. ROUNDS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
WATERS TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF WILL BRING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AND ELEVATED SURF
COMBINE TO LEAD TO DANGEROUS SURF AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR
AREA BEACHES TODAY. ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LEADING TO
MODERATE RISK FOR SE GA BEACHES ON FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
PATCHY TO AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TODAY AND
- FRIDAY
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUING TODAY BUT LESSENING ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER DAY OF
HIGHER DISPERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO
THE REGION WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK, WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW. EVEN WITH THE DRIER AIR FILTERING IN, MIN RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR THE 40% MARK, BUT LOCATIONS IN FAR
INTERIOR SE GA HOVER IN THE NEAR MID TO UPPER 30 PERCENT RANGE BOTH
TODAY AND FRIDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG EXPECTED. HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE FOR INLAND AREAS EARLY IN THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 90 67 92 70 / 10 10 10 0
SSI 87 75 88 76 / 20 10 10 0
JAX 87 72 89 72 / 20 10 20 0
SGJ 86 75 87 75 / 20 10 30 20
GNV 90 71 90 70 / 10 10 20 0
OCF 89 71 90 71 / 10 10 20 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ452-
454-472-474.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page