500
FXUS62 KJAX 180727
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
327 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SLOWLY WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE (1024 MILLIBARS) SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. MEANWHILE, COASTAL TROUGHING WAS POSITIONED OVER THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO NORTHEAST FL. OTHERWISE, A COLD
FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND THE
OHIO VALLEY, WITH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE (1031 MILLIBARS)
BUILDING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES STATES IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALOFT...A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) WAS SPINNING SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF STREAM WATERS ADJACENT TO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
FL, WHILE "HEAT WAVE RIDGING WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TX, THE
OZARKS, AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST GOES-EAST
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OUR AIR
MASS IS GRADUALLY MOISTENING FROM EAST TO WEST, WITH PWAT VALUES
NOW IN THE 1.8 - 2 INCH RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
FL, RANGING TO VALUES AROUND OR JUST BELOW 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY. COASTAL TROUGHING AND GRADUALLY COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WERE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THAT WERE OCCASIONALLY MOVING ONSHORE, MAINLY
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, WITH A FEW SHOWERS
SURVIVING THEIR INLAND TREK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL, WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS NOW IN PLACE. FAIR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, WHERE TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS HAVE MOSTLY FALLEN TO THE UPPER 60S AS OF 07Z. BREEZY
ONSHORE WINDS WERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 AT COASTAL LOCATIONS, WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
OTHERWISE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REST OF OUR
AREA.
THE TUTT FEATURE SITUATED JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL FL COAST WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD TODAY AND
TONIGHT, TRAVERSING NORTH CENTRAL FL AND THE I-4 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN EMERGING OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF
JUST WEST OF TAMPA BAY AND THE FL NATURE COAST BY SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, WEAK COASTAL
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
ADJACENT TO NORTHEAST FL. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10, WITH COASTAL TROUGHING AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY
PUSH ONSHORE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGING POSITIONED TO
THE WEST OF OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ITS AXIS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES, PROVIDING A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND
MORE SUBSIDENT AIR MASS FOR SOUTHEAST GA, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HIGHS AT THESE LOCATIONS WILL SOAR TO THE
LOWER AND POSSIBLY MIDDLE 90S, BUT DEWPOINTS WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE 65-70 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, KEEPING PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP
COASTAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY.
COASTAL TROUGHING WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT, AND OUR LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOOSEN AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER OUR AREA. SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH FURTHER
AT COASTAL LOCATIONS AS ONSHORE WINDS DIMINISH, WHERE LOWS WILL
FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. INLAND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
WEEKEND, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEAKENS AS A MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE FL PENINSULA GRADUALLY SHIFTS INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES THIS
WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMING IN FROM
THE ATLANTIC COMBINED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED BY
PASSING SHORTWAVES ALOFT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE AS IT SHIFTS
WELL INLAND AND EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE GULF SEA BREEZE ALONG
THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. COVERAGE
BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ESE
DEEP LAYER FLOW. A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE SAME SPREAD OF DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVELY COOLER HIGHS ALONG THE COASTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH LOWER 90S FURTHER INLAND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
THE CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MEANDER AND
DISSIPATE BY MID-WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP INTO MID-WEEK, WITH MOIST AIR (PWATS ~2") CONTINUING TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT DIPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SE US TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LOWERING COVERAGE TO BE MORE
SCATTERED.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
SHOWERS MAY OCCASIONALLY IMPACT THE SGJ TERMINAL THROUGH AROUND
22Z, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INDICATE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VFR
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z AT VQQ. A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
THE GNV TERMINAL AFTER 15Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS REMAINS
TOO LOW TO MENTION ANYTHING OTHER THAN VICINITY SHOWERS AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS, WITH OCCASIONAL CEILINGS OF 3,500 - 4,500 FEET
FORECAST THROUGH AROUND 22Z BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OUT EARLY ON
FRIDAY EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
SUSTAINED AROUND 5 KNOTS AT THE SGJ AND SSI COASTAL TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS INLAND.
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS BY
13Z AND THEN 10-15 KNOTS BEFORE 16Z. SPEEDS WILL THEN DIMINISH
BACK TO 5-10 KNOTS BEFORE 00Z SATURDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY, WITH A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH POSITIONED
OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, MOSTLY FOR THE WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTHWARD.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CAUTION LEVELS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS, AND SURFACE
TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE ALOFT CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY WILL EMERGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEGINNING
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MAY
ATTEMPT TO WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD LATER NEXT WEEK,
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP BREAKERS IN THE 3-4
FOOT RANGE AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY, WHILE VALUES
SUBSIDE TO THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY YIELD A HIGHER END MODERATE RISK AT
ALL AREA BEACHES. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINTAINING A MODERATE
RISK AT AREA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, BUT NOT AS BREEZY
AS PREVIOUS DAYS. FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSIONS PREVAIL
THROUGH SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW TODAY, WITH ONLY ROUNDS OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE SHIFTS WELL INLAND EACH AFTERNOON.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG EXPECTED. HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE FOR INLAND AREAS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 93 70 92 71 / 10 10 30 20
SSI 88 75 88 76 / 0 10 10 20
JAX 89 70 90 73 / 10 10 10 10
SGJ 87 76 88 75 / 20 10 20 30
GNV 91 70 91 71 / 20 0 30 0
OCF 92 70 91 70 / 20 0 30 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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