085
FXUS62 KJAX 181158
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
758 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10
- WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON & EVENING TSTORMS FROM. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SLOWLY WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE
(1024 MILLIBARS) SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE,
COASTAL TROUGHING WAS POSITIONED OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ADJACENT
TO NORTHEAST FL. OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE (1031 MILLIBARS) BUILDING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE
GREAT LAKES STATES IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALOFT...A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) WAS SPINNING SLOWLY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS ADJACENT TO NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL FL, WHILE "HEAT WAVE RIDGING WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST TX, THE OZARKS, AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST
GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
OUR AIR MASS IS GRADUALLY MOISTENING FROM EAST TO WEST, WITH PWAT
VALUES NOW IN THE 1.8 - 2 INCH RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL FL, RANGING TO VALUES AROUND OR JUST BELOW 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY. COASTAL TROUGHING AND GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WERE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THAT WERE
OCCASIONALLY MOVING ONSHORE, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR, WITH A FEW SHOWERS SURVIVING THEIR INLAND TREK ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL FL, WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WAS NOW IN PLACE. FAIR
SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY,
WHERE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS HAVE MOSTLY FALLEN TO THE UPPER 60S
AS OF 07Z. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AT COASTAL LOCATIONS, WITH TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS OTHERWISE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REST OF
OUR AREA.
THE TUTT FEATURE SITUATED JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL FL
COAST WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT,
TRAVERSING NORTH CENTRAL FL AND THE I-4 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THEN EMERGING OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF JUST WEST OF TAMPA
BAY AND THE FL NATURE COAST BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO NORTHEAST FL. THIS EVOLUTION OF
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10, WITH COASTAL TROUGHING AND ONSHORE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY PUSH
ONSHORE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGING POSITIONED TO THE WEST
OF OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ITS AXIS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES, PROVIDING A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT
AIR MASS FOR SOUTHEAST GA, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
HIGHS AT THESE LOCATIONS WILL SOAR TO THE LOWER AND POSSIBLY MIDDLE
90S, BUT DEWPOINTS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE 65-70 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON,
KEEPING PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100.
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP COASTAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
TODAY.
COASTAL TROUGHING WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT, AND OUR LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOOSEN AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS
OVER OUR AREA. SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH FURTHER AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS AS ONSHORE WINDS DIMINISH, WHERE LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S. INLAND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEAKENS AS A MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE FL PENINSULA GRADUALLY SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN
GULF THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED BY PASSING SHORTWAVES
ALOFT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE AS IT SHIFTS WELL INLAND AND EVENTUALLY
MERGES WITH THE GULF SEA BREEZE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. COVERAGE BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS ON
SUNDAY IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ESE DEEP LAYER FLOW. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE SAME SPREAD OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WITH RELATIVELY COOLER HIGHS ALONG THE COASTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S, WITH LOWER 90S FURTHER INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE 70S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE
THE CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MEANDER AND
DISSIPATE BY MID-WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
INTO MID-WEEK, WITH MOIST AIR (PWATS ~2") CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SE
US TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT LOWERING COVERAGE TO BE MORE SCATTERED.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
COASTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE AND MAY GRAZE OR PASS OVER NE FL TERMINALS
TODAY. PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND LOWEST BASES AROUND 3KFT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES, INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS BY 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS HOLD TONIGHT
BUT COASTAL AIRFIELDS MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AS BOUTS OF
STRATOCUMULUS PUSH IN FROM THE ATLANTIC.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TODAY, WITH A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON, MOSTLY FOR THE
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTHWARD. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CAUTION LEVELS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THROUGHOUT OUR
LOCAL WATERS, AND SURFACE TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE ALOFT CROSSING THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY WILL EMERGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MAY ATTEMPT TO WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
LATER NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP BREAKERS IN THE 3-4
FOOT RANGE AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY, WHILE VALUES SUBSIDE
TO THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY YIELD A HIGHER END MODERATE RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINTAINING A MODERATE RISK AT AREA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT NOT AS BREEZY AS
PREVIOUS DAYS. FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSIONS PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LOW TODAY, WITH ONLY ROUNDS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
SHIFTS WELL INLAND EACH AFTERNOON.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG EXPECTED. HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE FOR INLAND AREAS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 93 70 92 71 / 10 10 30 20
SSI 88 75 88 76 / 0 10 10 20
JAX 89 70 90 73 / 10 10 10 10
SGJ 87 76 88 75 / 20 10 20 30
GNV 91 70 91 71 / 20 0 30 0
OCF 92 70 91 70 / 20 0 30 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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