268
FXUS62 KJAX 190042
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
842 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON & EVENING TSTORMS FROM.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES
- ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT OWING TO A BROAD UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SITUATED OFF THE EASTERN FL COAST WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERSELY, SUBSIDENT AND DRIER AIR ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WILL LIMIT SHOWER OR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. FOR THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE TODAY, THE ZONE THAT WILL
BE AT HIGHEST RISK WILL BE PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF LINE FROM
GAINESVILLE TO JACKSONVILLE.
BENEATH THE POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT, DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE
MODEST TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION (MUCAPE 2,500-3,000 J/KG) AND SPAWN
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (~20%)
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE FAVORABLE,
THERE WILL BE A "TUG OF WAR" BETWEEN BUOYANT UPDRAFTS AND BROADER
SUBSIDENT AIR ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND NE FL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
IF A STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT CAN BE SUSTAINED, THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE LIGHTNING FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY THREAT OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
OUTSIDE OF THE LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY, A BREEZY ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP THE COASTAL AREAS COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
WHILE INLAND HIGHS PUSH INTO THE LOW 90S AMID A DRIER AIRMASS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S.
FOR TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS IT DOES, SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
DECREASING COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL COAST
SHOWERS. PARTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LET TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE LOW
70S INLAND WHILE THE WARMING ONSHORE FLOW LIMITS COOLING NEAR THE
COAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: (SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
- SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND,
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES SUNDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WILL PROVIDE ADDED INSTABILITY THIS PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY THE SURFACE
RIDGING SATURDAY. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH DISSIPATING SUNDAY,
AND UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MUCH HIGHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY, AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
THEN CLOSER TO AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD BE NEAR TO A LITTLE AVERAGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THEN NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ENE WINDS 5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY CALM TONIGHT. PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP BRIEFLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR VQQ. ENE
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO 5-10 KTS AFTER 13Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SGJ AND GNV GENERALLY AFTER 14-18Z.
MARINE
ONSHORE WINDS BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MAY BUILD
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP BREAKERS IN THE 3-4
FOOT RANGE AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY, WHILE VALUES SUBSIDE
TO THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY YIELD A HIGHER END MODERATE RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINTAINING A MODERATE RISK AT AREA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AN INVERTED THROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. THUS
TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AS
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST OF THE US.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG EXPECTED. HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE FOR INLAND AREAS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 71 93 71 91 / 0 20 20 60
SSI 76 89 76 88 / 0 10 20 30
JAX 72 90 73 89 / 0 10 20 50
SGJ 74 88 74 87 / 10 10 20 40
GNV 70 91 71 90 / 10 10 10 60
OCF 71 91 71 90 / 10 20 10 70
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page