719
FXUS62 KJAX 190801
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
401 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT INLAND
LOCATIONS TODAY.
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH
GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND POSSIBLY SMALL
HAIL.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
- STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT INLAND
LOCATIONS.
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING
THE EAST CENTRAL FL ATLANTIC COAST, WHILE WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE (1019 MILLIBARS) WAS SHIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
THE CAROLINAS. ALOFT...A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) WAS PUSHING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FL. OTHERWISE, "HEAT
WAVE" RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND THE
OZARKS, WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDING ITS AXIS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PWATS REMAIN ABOVE
LATE SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH VALUES
GENERALLY AROUND 1.75 INCHES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
10 AND AROUND 2 INCHES FOR LOCALES NORTH OF I-10. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING TRIGGERED BY THE COMBINATION OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND TUTT FEATURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ADJACENT TO EAST CENTRAL FL, WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXTENDING NORTH
OF THIS FEATURE TO NEAR FLAGLER BEACH. OTHERWISE, PATCHES OF MID
AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER WERE PROGRESSING ACROSS OUR
REGION, WITH CALM WINDS AT MOST LOCATIONS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS TO FALL TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AS OF 08Z.
THE TUTT FEATURE AND ITS ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOW
ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT FURTHER TODAY AS THESE FEATURES EXIT
FL'S GULF COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CAROLINAS STALLS TO THE
NORTH OF OUR AREA. MEANWHILE, A MORE SUBSIDENT AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FL AND
SOUTHEAST GA TO THE NORTH OF THE TUTT FEATURE, WHICH WILL LIKELY
LIMIT SHOWER COVERAGE TO ISOLATED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COULD DRIVE A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS ONSHORE THIS MORNING, WITH THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THEN BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA, WITH ACTIVITY FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY TUTT COULD CAUSE A
FEW STORMS TO PULSE AND BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ANY
STRONGER ACTIVITY BEING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS OF
35-45 MPH, ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND POSSIBLY
SMALL HAIL. WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW TODAY SHOULD ALLOW COASTAL HIGHS
TO CLIMB TO THE UPPER 80S, WHILE HIGHS AT INLAND LOCATIONS
GENERALLY REACH THE LOWER 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING
AROUND 100 AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE TUTT CELL AND ITS ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
STALL TO THE WEST OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION TONIGHT, WITH
SUBSIDENCE SHIFTING WEST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERING TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS
POTENTIALLY ADVECTING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TOWARDS COASTAL
LOCATIONS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON SUNDAY. EVENING CONVECTION
OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL
FL SHOULD PROGRESS WEST OF THE ALAPAHA AND SUWANNEE RIVERS BY
THE MID-EVENING HOURS, WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER LIKELY
PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL MOSTLY
FALL TO THE LOW AND MID 70S ACROSS OUR REGION.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: (SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT
THE SURFACE, RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEAKENS BUT ENE
FLOW REMAINS. A MOIST AIRMASS (PWATS 1.8-2.1") CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
AN EARLY START IS ANTICIPATED TO SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE SHIFTS INLAND TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY NOON.
SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE SHIFTS
WELL INLAND AND MERGES WITH THE GULF SEA BREEZE ALONG AND WEST
OF I-75 IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOW 90S INLAND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE BY MID-WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES AT THE
SURFACE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP INTO MID-WEEK, WITH MOIST AIR (PWATS ~2")
CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. A COLD
FRONT DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SE US TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LOWERING COVERAGE
TO BE MORE SCATTERED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY BECOME LOW-UPPER 80S AREA-WIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
70S THEN DIP INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 19Z SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AFTER 12Z NEAR THE SSI AND SGJ COASTAL
TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INDICATE ANYTHING OTHER
THAN VICINITY SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND MOVING
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE VQQ AND GNV TERMINALS AFTER
18Z THROUGH AROUND 23Z. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INDICATE
ANYTHING OTHER THAN VICINITY SHOWERS AT THIS TIME FOR THE VQQ
TERMINAL, WHILE A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY
CONTAINING BRIEF SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WAS INCLUDED AT GNV.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INDICATE PREVAILING
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 19Z AT GNV AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS BY 00Z. OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP TOWARDS 05Z SUNDAY AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR VICINITY
SHOWERS AT SSI AT THIS TIME. LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SUSTAINED AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARDS 14Z
BEFORE SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY AT 5- 10 KNOTS BY
17Z. EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS DURING
THE EVENING HOURS WILL THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
A SURFACE TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL EMERGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF THIS AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
WATERS FROM AROUND ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTHWARD TODAY, WITH COVERAGE
THEN SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY R NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR
AREA. EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SPEEDS AND SEAS REMAINING
BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK WILL THEN WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD,
RESULTING IN SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT WILL LIKELY BRING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO OUR LOCAL WATERS BEGINNING
LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AT ALL AREA BEACHES. A HIGH RISK IS LIKELY
BEGINNING LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AND
BREAKER HEIGHTS BUILD.
FIRE WEATHER
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSIONS PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZES WITH
THE SEA BREEZE MERGER ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM COVERAGE INCREASES TO MORE
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG EXPECTED. HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE FOR INLAND AREAS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 93 71 90 71 / 40 40 30 0
SSI 89 75 88 75 / 20 30 40 10
JAX 90 72 89 73 / 20 20 30 10
SGJ 88 76 87 74 / 20 10 20 20
GNV 90 71 90 71 / 30 0 60 10
OCF 91 71 91 71 / 50 10 60 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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