702
FXUS62 KJAX 191118
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
718 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INLAND TODAY.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 301. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON & EVENING TSTORMS SUN THROUGH
WED. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES
- STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE MARINE HAZARDS FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT INLAND
LOCATIONS.
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE
EAST CENTRAL FL ATLANTIC COAST, WHILE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE (1019
MILLIBARS) WAS SHIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MEANWHILE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS.
ALOFT...A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) WAS PUSHING
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FL. OTHERWISE, "HEAT WAVE" RIDGING REMAINS
CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND THE OZARKS, WITH THIS FEATURE
EXTENDING ITS AXIS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT PWATS REMAIN ABOVE LATE SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS OUR
REGION, WITH VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 1.75 INCHES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 10 AND AROUND 2 INCHES FOR LOCALES NORTH OF I-10.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING TRIGGERED BY THE COMBINATION OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND TUTT FEATURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ADJACENT TO EAST CENTRAL FL, WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXTENDING NORTH OF
THIS FEATURE TO NEAR FLAGLER BEACH. OTHERWISE, PATCHES OF MID AND
HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER WERE PROGRESSING ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH
CALM WINDS AT MOST LOCATIONS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO
FALL TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AS OF 08Z.
THE TUTT FEATURE AND ITS ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOW ITS
WESTWARD MOVEMENT FURTHER TODAY AS THESE FEATURES EXIT FL'S GULF
COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA THROUGH TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE CAROLINAS STALLS TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, A MORE SUBSIDENT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
COASTAL PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FL AND SOUTHEAST GA TO THE NORTH OF
THE TUTT FEATURE, WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT SHOWER COVERAGE TO
ISOLATED FOR THESE LOCATIONS. PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
COULD DRIVE A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS ONSHORE THIS MORNING, WITH THE
INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THEN BECOMING THE FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA, WITH ACTIVITY FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY TUTT COULD CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO
PULSE AND BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY
BEING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH, ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. WEAKER ONSHORE
FLOW TODAY SHOULD ALLOW COASTAL HIGHS TO CLIMB TO THE UPPER 80S,
WHILE HIGHS AT INLAND LOCATIONS GENERALLY REACH THE LOWER 90S, WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING AROUND 100 AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE TUTT CELL AND ITS ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
STALL TO THE WEST OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION TONIGHT, WITH SUBSIDENCE
SHIFTING WEST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS, WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS POTENTIALLY ADVECTING SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY TOWARDS COASTAL LOCATIONS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON
SUNDAY. EVENING CONVECTION OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL FL SHOULD PROGRESS WEST OF THE ALAPAHA AND
SUWANNEE RIVERS BY THE MID-EVENING HOURS, WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER LIKELY PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY FALL TO THE LOW AND MID 70S ACROSS OUR REGION.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: (SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE
UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY TO THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE,
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEAKENS BUT ENE FLOW REMAINS. A
MOIST AIRMASS (PWATS 1.8-2.1") CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM
THE ATLANTIC. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AN EARLY START IS ANTICIPATED
TO SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE SHIFTS INLAND TO
THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY NOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE AS THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE SHIFTS WELL INLAND AND MERGES WITH THE GULF SEA
BREEZE ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOW
90S INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE
THE CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE BY MID-WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
INTO MID-WEEK, WITH MOIST AIR (PWATS ~2") CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SE
US TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT LOWERING COVERAGE TO BE MORE SCATTERED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S ON TUESDAY BECOME LOW-UPPER 80S AREA-WIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 70S THEN DIP INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
OUTSIDE OF INFLUENCE FROM AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, VFR CONDITIONS
MAINTAIN THROUGH THE MORNING, AFTERNOON, AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SUSTAINED AROUND 5
KNOTS TOWARDS 14Z BEFORE SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY AT 5-
10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL TSRA MAY
IMPACT INLAND SITES ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR (AT KGNV) BETWEEN 20Z-
00Z THIS EVENING. TONIGHT, EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS FALL
TO AROUND 5 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING HOURS WILL THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS CALM, LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KVQQ DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY.
MARINE
A SURFACE TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
GULF THIS AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WATERS FROM AROUND ST.
AUGUSTINE SOUTHWARD TODAY, WITH COVERAGE THEN SLOWLY INCREASING
THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY R
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
SPEEDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WILL THEN WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD,
RESULTING IN SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT WILL LIKELY BRING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO OUR LOCAL WATERS BEGINNING LATER
ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AT ALL AREA BEACHES. A HIGH RISK IS LIKELY
BEGINNING LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AND BREAKER
HEIGHTS BUILD.
FIRE WEATHER
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FAIR
TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSIONS PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZES WITH THE SEA BREEZE MERGER
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORM COVERAGE INCREASES TO MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG EXPECTED. HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE FOR INLAND AREAS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 93 71 90 71 / 40 40 30 0
SSI 89 75 88 75 / 20 30 40 10
JAX 90 72 89 73 / 20 20 30 10
SGJ 88 76 87 74 / 20 10 20 20
GNV 90 71 90 71 / 30 0 60 10
OCF 91 71 91 71 / 50 10 60 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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