923
FXUS62 KJAX 191751
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
151 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INLAND TODAY.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 301. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON & EVENING TSTORMS SUN THROUGH
WED. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES
- STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE MARINE HAZARDS FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT INLAND LOCATIONS.
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
A CLOSED, WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA REMAINS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS LOW WHERE CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS
RESULTING IN SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL ALOFT HAS ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD, RESULTING IN WAKE
WARMING ALOFT LEADING TO LESS INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ADEQUATE DEEP
MOISTURE RESIDES. THERE IS SOME DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS SE GA
WHICH MAY AMPLIFY THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST REASONABLE AREA
FOR STRONGER DEVELOPMENT TO FOCUS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL FADE THIS EVENING, BUT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT MAY BE ABLE TO PUSH
INTO THE BEACHES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE THE LOW 90S INLAND FOR
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SE GA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE BROADLY
IN THE UPPER 60S (DRIER). TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AT THE
COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE WINDS AND AROUND 90 FOR INLAND AREAS OF
NE FL. AS WINDS CALM TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL
TO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S AT THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: (SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY, A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST,
WHILE A 500MB TROUGH IS LOCATED OVERHEAD. THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE FLOW ONSHORE SUNDAY. CONVECTION WILL
INITIATE LATE IN THE MORNING WITH DIURNAL HEATING AS THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. THIS CONVECTION WILL PUSH FURTHER INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH ENHANCEMENT IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH DUE
TO UPPER INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
ON MONDAY, THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME WITH
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. ONCE AGAIN THE CONVECTION WILL LARGELY
MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
EXPECTED. NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FORECAST
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT, AND TRACK
NORTH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AS A LOW WEDNESDAY TROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN US ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW, WITH THIS RIDGE EXTENDING INTO LOCAL
AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIP INTO AREA STARTING IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
DUE TO THE INVERTED TROUGH, THEN LOCATION OF LOW, ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. FOR
THE REST OF THIS PERIOD, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOWER DUE
TO THE POSITION OF THE HIGH, WITH GREATEST CHANCES OVER EASTERN
COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID
WEEK, THEN TREND BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
INCREASED CONFIDENCE WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS INLAND NE FL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY AT
KGNV FROM 19Z- 23Z. ELSEWHERE, CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT SHRA/TSRA
IMPACTS IS LOW VICINITY SHOWERS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
THERE WILL BE HIGHER CHANCES FOR MORNING SHRA AT COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH A TRANSITION TO TSRA AFTER 15Z, ESPECIALLY AT
KSSI/KGNV/KSGJ. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE, VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH CUMULUS BASES AT OR ABOVE 3KFT THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS FAVOR AN ENE TO E DIRECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE WANING THIS EVENING AND TRENDING CALM
OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS CALM, LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP AT INLAND SITE
WITH BEST POTENTIAL AT KVQQ. LIGHT ENE WINDS WILL REDEVELOP WITH
POTENTIAL COASTAL SHOWERS BETWEEN 13-15Z ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
SPEEDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE THEN WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, RESULTING IN
SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AT ALL AREA BEACHES. A HIGH RISK IS LIKELY
BEGINNING LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AND BREAKER
HEIGHTS BUILD.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY,
THEN DEVELOP INTO A LOW EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL
THEN TRACK AWAY TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST OF THE US, AND INTO
THE LOCAL AREA.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG EXPECTED. HOWEVER, PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR INLAND AREAS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 93 71 90 71 / 40 40 30 0
SSI 89 75 88 75 / 20 30 40 10
JAX 90 72 89 73 / 20 20 30 10
SGJ 88 76 87 74 / 20 10 20 20
GNV 90 71 90 71 / 30 0 60 10
OCF 91 71 91 71 / 50 10 60 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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