697
FXUS62 KJAX 200004
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
804 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND THIS EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 301. WIND
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON & EVENING TSTORMS SUN THROUGH WED.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES
- STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE MARINE HAZARDS FROM LATE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT INLAND
LOCATIONS.
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
A CLOSED, WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THIS LOW WHERE CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN
SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT HAS
ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD, RESULTING IN WAKE WARMING ALOFT LEADING TO
LESS INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ADEQUATE DEEP MOISTURE RESIDES. THERE IS SOME
DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS SE GA WHICH MAY AMPLIFY THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MOST REASONABLE AREA FOR STRONGER DEVELOPMENT TO FOCUS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL FADE THIS EVENING,
BUT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT MAY BE ABLE
TO PUSH INTO THE BEACHES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE THE LOW 90S INLAND FOR THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SE GA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE BROADLY IN THE
UPPER 60S (DRIER). TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AT THE COAST DUE TO
THE ONSHORE WINDS AND AROUND 90 FOR INLAND AREAS OF NE FL. AS WINDS
CALM TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO THE LOW 70S INLAND
AND MID 70S AT THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: (SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY, A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST,
WHILE A 500MB TROUGH IS LOCATED OVERHEAD. THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE FLOW ONSHORE SUNDAY. CONVECTION WILL
INITIATE LATE IN THE MORNING WITH DIURNAL HEATING AS THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. THIS CONVECTION WILL PUSH FURTHER INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH ENHANCEMENT IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH DUE
TO UPPER INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
ON MONDAY, THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME WITH
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. ONCE AGAIN THE CONVECTION WILL LARGELY MOVE
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS EXPECTED.
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT, AND TRACK NORTH
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AS A LOW WEDNESDAY TROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN US ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS LOW, WITH THIS RIDGE EXTENDING INTO LOCAL AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIP INTO AREA STARTING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DUE TO THE INVERTED TROUGH, THEN LOCATION OF LOW, ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. FOR THE
REST OF THIS PERIOD, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOWER DUE TO THE
POSITION OF THE HIGH, WITH GREATEST CHANCES OVER EASTERN COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID
WEEK, THEN TREND BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT FOG
MAY DEVELOP FOR INLAND SITES WITH BEST POTENTIAL AT KVQQ AND GNV DUE
TO THE EARLIER SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR GNV. LIGHT ENE WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL COASTAL SHOWERS BETWEEN 13-15Z ON SUNDAY,
WITH STORMS DEVELOPING AS SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND, WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTIVE OVER INLAND LOCATIONS AND COASTAL SITES.
MARINE
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE DAY WITH INCREASING COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR
AREA. EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SPEEDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
CAUTION LEVELS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THEN WEDGE DOWN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, RESULTING IN SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEGINNING
LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AT ALL AREA BEACHES. A HIGH RISK IS LIKELY
BEGINNING LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AND BREAKER
HEIGHTS BUILD.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, THEN DEVELOP INTO
A LOW EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK AWAY TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
DOWN THE EAST COAST OF THE US, AND INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG EXPECTED. HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE FOR INLAND AREAS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 90 71 91 / 40 40 20 30
SSI 76 86 75 87 / 20 40 30 40
JAX 72 89 72 89 / 10 50 20 50
SGJ 74 86 73 87 / 20 30 20 50
GNV 71 90 71 90 / 10 40 10 70
OCF 71 91 72 91 / 10 40 20 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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